Maestrobjwa

Now I'm wondering about this...Are we heading out of the minimum, or does this year mark the official "start"? I'm a bit confused about how they measure it. Because if we get a "lag" effect, I don't know where the clock would start from, so to speak, lol

Now that's an idea...may look at that tomorrow!

But why would that invalidate it?...Are there not enough repetitions with the same variable (the solar minimum) present? Sure, any two year period could repeat a pattern, but it wouldn't be with any consistency. Whereas here...there seems to be at least a degree of consistency when one variable (the minimum) is present.

Maybe maybe not....I just thought by the numbers there seemed to be an either or pattern. Sometimes in those next two winters was always either average or above average. Don't know why or if it's just a statistical blip...but there does seem to be repeated with the exception of 1996 (where it happened just before)

So here are a list of solar minimums--counted here as the start of a new solar cycle--and the two consecutive winters that followed each one. I used approximate months for the start of new solar cycles that I found on wiki (yeah I know, lol That's why I just put the season, as opposed to the individual months--except for the winter months). Solar Minimum: January 1902 1902-1903: 19.8" 1903-1904: 25.9" SM: Summer 1913 1913-14: 23.0" 1914-15: 16.0" SM: Summer 1923 1923-24: 33.6" 1924-25: 19.2" SM: Fall 1933 1933-34: 47.9" 1934-35: 29.2" SM: Winter 1944 1944-45: 17.3" 1945-46: 26.1" SM: Spring 1954 1954-55: 10.1" 1955-56: 19.1: SM: Fall 1964 1964-65: 18.6" 1965-66: 32.8" SM: Late Winter 1976 1976-77: 11.1" 1977-78: 34.3" SM: Fall 1986 1986-87: 35.2" 1987-88: 20.4" SM: Summer 1996 1996-97: 15.3" 1997-98: 3.2" *****Now this was a bit of an anomaly...of course we all know what happened BEFORE this minimum, lol SM: Dec 2008 2008-09: 9.1" 2009-10 77.0" So I'll let the experienced minds weigh in here...but there seems to be a trend of either one winter or the other seeing average or above average snow. I don't know what that would mean for this year. Do we know where we are with our solar status? Did we hit the minimum sometime last year, or this year? I've read that nailing down the cycles precisely can be a challenge. But nevertheless...this is what I observed just by looking at the record.

Tbh, I can't salivate about anything after the last three winters...it's like crap has been broken up there in the atmosphere for winter, lol BUT...when looking back at all our winters surrounding a solar minimum on record, we never had a complete dud. In fact, all but 2 solar minimums produced a winter with above average snow. So I looked at two consecutive winters that fell either during or after the minimums (due to the suspected "lag effect" that's been discussed here) The lowest total was the 40s at 18"...which isn't a dud but exactly our average. Now I don't know how to make a chart showing all this...but I can post a list of the winters sometime soon (too lazy to do it right now, lol) But you'd think...that if we saw zero solar minimum effect last year...we'd have to see some kind of effect this year, right? (What are the odds we see no effect in the atmosphere?)

Of course my brain has been wondering if this has anything to do with it...but I'm sure it's not that simple, lol (Although the day with the coldest high temperature and the record low we broke on the 9tb did come at the end of solar cycles...but of course, tiny sample size, I guess!)

@Mrs.J You're about to be drafted as the sole caterer of the next forum meet-up...lol (if you haven't been already!)

Happy Mother's Day to all of the mothers here! And especially Mother @mappy I always view you as the somewhat mother of our forum...giving us firm scoldings and timeouts when we need them

So did I really see a few scattered flurries about an hour ago? Hahahaha That is fantastic!! Love it, lol

Epic for OC perhaps...lol See that winter, despite snowfall being around average at BWI...the near misses really stung. (To me those can be worse than getting nothing sometimes, lol)

You just said a bad word (nina)...Don't tell me they think we'll get one this winter

Agree. I was certainly getting some value out of it and some of the information shared by others. Was a nice place to kinda discuss the virus in a smaller forum than Facebook. But alas...all it took is for a few to derail it, smh

Yeah it's really sad...After seeing a political polarization even in THIS, I'm concerned that this may be evidence that such polarization has poisoned every square inch of our American existence, smh I mean I'm only 29, but...I don't remember another time where every little thing is polarized (even the dang weather last year, lol). But so it goes...It pretty much started off like this--with the whole "serious concern vs media hysteria=not that bad" debate. That was also somehow, some way, along party lines, smh

I strain to understand arguments made for "intellectualism" when made by those who choose to ignore even the experts in the field in favor of their own, uneducated knowledge (not talking about you, specifically...just to some folks I've seen and heard doing this.). I think mistrust of government unfairly gets cast on the experts officials listen to.

I think we have to give some leeway here when it comes to understanding this virus: it's a new virus, and even the best minds are still learning as we go. It's unrealistic to think information and advice won't change as things progress and we learn more about it. We simply don't know everything about this virus yet...so of course guidance is gonna change as new information is learned! Kinda like the weather, you adjust how you prepare and respond as you get more info. Now, that's for the virus...I won't speak to other reason for government distrust and such (rabbit hole, lol)

Ack! Don't spit-ball at a time like this--that's unsanitary (unsanitary pre-pandemic...downright radio-active waste during it!)

Now see, this really makes me mad. And makes me worry about this being a new normal. All the consecutive Springs we've seen this happen over and over (albeit maybe not quite this late) worries me...What are the odds that it just can't -EPO, -NAO, or -AO in the winter months anymore for whatever reason?

Speaking of protesting...here's what bothers me about what we saw in Michigan the other day: While it's perfectly fine to protest inside the capitol building...should folks really be allowed to bring guns in there like that? I don't get that...(one senator felt the need to wear a bulletproof vest)

That would explain the smell...

It's not the difference of opinion that's the main problem here, though...

Yep...that's an example of what I meant yesterday when I said "toxic"...

Understood!

This.

My problem ain't with the opposing opinions...if that were the case I could just hit ignore. (and sure you can hit ignore, but the effects on the thread ya still see).