Maestrobjwa

For me, the main reason I am curious about a KU is history...lol I wanna see it repeat itself for the third time! (1899, 1979....2019?)

HM seems to think things could be trending neg nao. We can't rule that out at all right now!

What do you mean? It's certainly not off the table!

Yeah seriously!! Time to get a plane, fly to the Pacific and punch it across the face a few times...lol (I'm sure PSU would jump at that chance since it ruined his and many other's forecasts!) But you're right--the desite to understand said chaos drives innovation! (Was just reading an old CWG article about how badly forecast storms like the Blizzard of 1979 changed forecasting, lol Maybe now mets can look at this!)

I still want to know why what the MJO did this year took even the best met minds by surprise. I just wanna know what can get better in forecasting going forward (is the MJO unexpectedly going ape in warmer phases something completely anomalous to this winter?). I asked this before but no one seems to know why! (And "weather just weathers" ain't a satisfactory answer this time! If the MJO derailed forecasting this year, how do they make it so they can see it coming next time?)

I get that...and perhaps my criticism last night wasn't the most fair. I think it could be that a lot of the forum leans heavily on you, Bob, and Showme's posts to get a feel for where things are...and when you guys say something like "I don't like" or "concern" it's amplified. Not fair since you guys only post your opinion about what you are seeing, but....that may be the reason for the reactions (including mine...I know I kinda go as you guys go since I'm a novice at all this, lol). It could be just deciphering your level of concern with one run versus the bigger picture...Often if you post what you don't like about something, I get a clearer picture when another chimes in about whether it may or may not be that bad overall. (and even you have had to walk back at times and clarify "I'm only talking about one run"--could you be going too much negative analysis on run one? Maybe. Or, the rest of us could just do better at realizing the bigger picture, lol)

I will admit I'm a bit nervous...feels like we are so close to something really good...and yet the scale is still tipping side-to-side...Next week may be the biggest week of tracking of the winter. I'd imagine a week from now we oughta have a pretty good idea about where we are going?

True...Gotta take the good runs with the bad, look at the larger picture #wxmaturity

Wanna see another forum meltdown session? Keep posting what ya don't like about the GEFS...lol

Now we know that model needs to go to the looney bin...(at least the op does...) I mean, we ain't seen that out of anything else, right? Lol

GFS is far from trustworthy right now...Not worth the emotional energy, lol

Huh...So, could we say, perhaps... Scenario 1: get the neg nao and classic coastal potential is there or Scenario 2: no neg nao help, we get more nickel and dime and events (and far from a shutout), but perhaps no classic coastal?

Nope!! (Not till' it quits jumpin' around like a clown, lol)

When it comes to the GFS: Don't go chasin' model runs Just stick to the euro and the better ensemble runs...

Quite frankly it just throws me off when scrolling through the board some of these mornings...All the "this is garbage" post got me like "Wait, what?" Which is why I lean on you and Bob's posts the most (and I'm slowly learning how to look at the 500 panels and such, but not there yet!)

Full-on snowglobe here now! Definitely best rate of the day--fat flakes!

Flurry flakes have gotten about as thick as I've seen them all day here in Balt. City! (not sure what you call these...they look like bits of down)

I think it's been a problem for everybody from Baltimore north and west (I mean even during the storm a few weeks ago...there seemed to be a brick wall right at the city, lol Was still a decent 5" event, but...it was a tad frustrating!) But, if we get a legit big storm...obviously our snow fortunes can change in a hurry!

We cannot at all rule out a big storm yet...I mean, perhaps I'm more optimistic because I'm betting on 1898/99 and 1978/79 history to repeat itself!

It can't be that trustworthy if it's jumping around like this, right?

So...who wants to play HM translator today?

Ha What?

I'll ask for that if we don't get a blizzard, lol (oh, and don't forget about Palm Sunday, 1942!) Now the only thing about 1979 was...it was all gone within a week! (By my dad's account and another one I've read, the storm was actually on the front end if a warm front--so it warmed up, and then we got like 3" of rain. Poof, lol But hey, if we can get close to two feet or better again...I think I'll still take it!)

Hey, if we get a big blast in Feb, it'll be worth it! (for me, anyway, lol)

I'm looking for a Feb 1979 redux...because our snowfall pattern this winter is strikingly similar to that year, and the Feb 1899... BWI SNOWFALL TOTALS Winter of 1978/79 Winter of 1898/99 Hm, what looks familiar about that (especially the 5 inches in Jan...lol)