Maestrobjwa

I guess I'm a bit more down on wave 1 because it feels like a DC special again that central MD may miss out on (unless it trends north to a perfect spot). But did wave 2 look much better this run? It's still a cutter here, isn't it? And overall, the models seem locked into the fact that we are gonna have a huge moisture bomb coming right at us a week from now. So unless that changes...heck yeah I wanna root for anything that'll help that be mostly or all snow!

Quite frankly I think we need to root the opposite way for wave 2...I'm wondering if a cutter solution actually end up being better for the big system we aren't talking about in this thread...

Wonder which two winters he was referring too? (wasn't 1978/79 was it? Lol)

See and the fact that nobody seems to be able to figure out what the heck has been going on this winter really bothers me. How is it after all these decades of data...that this winter is somehow different from the rest in terms of it utterly baffling even the best met minds? Somebody gotta figure out something! That's what has made this winter mentally taxing at times--nothing seems to be working the way it should (resulting in both good and bad outcomes). It's not just our usual "missing a threat" like a bad track or something...but just the entire bigger picture. All winter it's been "well this usually does this, by why it didn't we don't know". I do hope after this season mets will take a long hard look so that maybe we don't have to go through this as much. End rant...

Yeah didn't even get the CAD this time, lo But no matter...8 days to go. It can only go up from today's runs!

What? What did I say this time?...

Ah, I see! So I'd imagine that IF we were to see snowier runs...it would likely be because of that? (Or is there another way it could work?)

I felt so proud of myself for actually getting the gist of his tweet...lol @Bob Chill Basically what we were talking about earlier with the transient blocking, right?

But here it also sounded like he was saying that we have a chance of transient blocking (which he referred to as "-NAO blips"...he said time one of those right and...fun times ahead, lol)

Even the more experienced posters on here usually do, lol (he literally labels his Twitter feed as "annoyingly esoteric"...and that it is!)

Wonder what's more liky to improve the the snow chance next week: A transient 50/50 from one of the waves, or blocking up top (or is the blocking/no blocking part of it already set in stone?)

I dont even know what trend we need anymore now a days. Just a snow trend I guess! A transient 50/50 is something to look for, I believe...

No, it didn't come true...why? Because it hasn't happened yet and we're 7+ days away!!!

Indeed, so to summarize, here's what we DO know: A. A big kahuna of moisture will likely be coming at us next Tues-Wed, and B. It will be cold to start Beyond we just don't know and are gonna have to be patient while all the chaotic activity sorts itself out. That fair to say? Lol

Could one of the first two waves do the trick?

Yeah I was gonna say that I was wondering if there was a scenario where one of the first two waves acts as a 50/50 as it departs...

Noticed the same thing...get that high to trens stronger the next few runs and we might be even more in business!

Now looking under the hood, what has room to trend in our favor to make this a mostly snow event? (Stronger 50/50? And would we have to pull off a colder solution without a -NAO?)

Just one? Well, if we had to choose 1/3 then I'd much rather it be the big one, then! I'd totally sacrifice the other two for that one if need be...lol I'm gonna lean on 1899/1979 history and go for the big kahuna...(not ignoring the first two, but...ya know)

And that's the interesting thing here...regardless of snow or mix solutions, that moisture bomb has been showing up on both the Euro and Gfs pretty consistently the last couple days!

Yeah that was my question...ICON did the same thing, lol

Subject to a refund of $.02?...

Whoa what happened? Did it not get above freezing even in Balt. City last night? (Just waking up, lol Was surprised to see even the city schools closed, lol)

Not "going" any way right now...one run, lol And the 50/50 position we certainly can't predict yet! But you know all this, of course

90% mix Then that's okay for now...We are still at day 9 (although it doesn't feel like it, lol