Maestrobjwa

It's not the thread...it's the pattern this year. If ya look around at even some of the best met minds out there...very few have had a good since things have been so jacked up and unexpected, lol

Dang it! Man that is frustrating...we seem to have trended toward the transient 50/50...and yet the se ridge (too my eyes it had seemed to look flatter at 12z yesterday...but not quite as much at 18z and 0z) Wonder if that's the main thing we gotta focus on to see if we actually have a chance here!

The whole setup is pecaroius. Deep western trough and massive se ridge dosent make me comfortable for this event How many of our setups AREN'T precarious in one way or another? Lol

Yes it's a terrible run. Snow starts too late...ends too early. Hopefully it's not sniffing out a new trend That's called bad trend paranoia...can't let the fear take over the logic of the fact that it's just one run!

At the risk of annoying somebody with a question (but it's off model hours so it oughta be okay, lol)... I'm trying to learn how that redevelopment off of Hatteras would work. So say the low trends to eastern TN...then what happens?

So in other words...perhaps this run isn't that far from that higher scenario?

Trust me I know about nina climo...never trust anything in it, lol But the thing is, this was a very weak El Nino. Sometimes those can be followed up by another nino (gonna check some data on that, though)

Definitely seems to be a trend towards a somewhar less pronounced se ridge the last few runs of both last night's EURO and the 12z GFS. Let's see if we can get that to continue!

Oh yeah I know...but EastCoastnpz seemed to almost take it seriously...lol

Nah that doesn't depress me...Even if next year is below average, we could still get above average the following year. I think we're defining "average" differently...I look through the entire history and use 20" as the average (since that is what one chart Ive been using calculated as such through last year). Looking up and down the list, I only saw below 20 inches after 3 previous <20 inch years maybe three times. And only once was it below 20" after 4 consecutive years (and that was the 1970s). Now...if you're saying that average wasn't defined the same way in say 1960 as it is now (like if average was defined as 25 inches back then), then I guess I can kinda see that...I've been applying the 20" mark to all of recorded weather history. But now, even if you applied it to winters from 1980 on...the 20" trend is still there, with one period of 4 consecutive sub-20 inch winters. Now just because it hasn't happened in awhile doesn't mean it can't--I get that. But fact remains...long runs of sub-20 inches don't happen that often. But again...I see your perspective as well. So, we shall see (Side note: There were a couple runs that were like 18 and 19 inches...that's tolerable for me...lol)

Nope, not counting on that by itself...but rather...history. We don't stay below average snowfall 6 consecutive years very often at all (only happened once in over 136 years of records). Even 4 consecutive years is kinda rare. So history argues against your 2023 theory (that and the fact that no enso forecast can be confidently made this early)

Yeah that's what I meant (he had said neutrals following ninas were crappy, so that's why I mentioned that year, lol)

Well...2013-14 wasn't terrible, now was it? We were just coming out of a nina then...And we have had two-year ENSO events before (I just listed this decade. There were others. I'd suggest looking through our history a bit more...You'll see that the probability of getting 3 more bad winters is kinda low based on our history. Oh, and solar minimums are good to us more often than not )

Hrm...Euro looking a bit colder at 144? Wonder if we can back our way back into a thump?

Yes we did (just saw NOAA tweet about it yesterday). Ya wouldn't think so, right? Lol

That's not necessarily true either...Just look at this decade. We basically went mod nino, nina, nina, neutral, neutral, super nino, nina, nina, weak modoki. And a two-year enso event is not off of the table either! We are due for a mod Nino, imo!

You're terrible...

No it's not...2023? Heck no. Look at our history...not even the longest snow droughts lasted that long. The 1970s were the only time I could find, really. 2 other periods in the 50s and late 80s to early 90s had 4 years in a row...but the average was 2-3 consecutive years in a row.

Troll mode, I see. I didn't mean last for a long time...just last for the season, dang it! I'm higher on next year, actually (I kinda started off the season that way--that one of the two winters would produce. On one end of a solar minimum or the other...we seem to have better winters overall)

So in other words...we need to hope for a hail mary for next week--or else many of us may have seen our last accumulating snowfall for the season (or could be seeing the last of it on Saturday). Mercy...

HP holds on a bit longer on the 18z...but nevertheless... Man, I hope this thing can be saved...because seeing a big slug moisture bomb coming right at us (as opposed to all those dang cutters we've been getting), and to not get anything out of it is gonna sting a bit. All that QPF!!

FWIW? It's worth nothing! Boo!! Salt in the wound, dude...lol

So now how did he do that, and what did he look at? Whatever it is...it's probably more reliable than all LR guidance, lol

Who is that?

Perhaps...but just to clarify, when I label a year "bad" I'm speaking primarily of below average (which by BWI standards anything below 20" +/- 2 inches). I just think there has indeed been a historical trend. Just like we've gotten a snowfall of at least a foot every 3-4 years since 1996...which would also mean we're due. Feels like some (not all) of our weather history likes to repeat themselves (like the 70 degree Christmases in strong El Niños led to a big snowfall that winter 3 times--including 2016). Also about to repeat itself unless this winter turns around? Winters that follow very wet years (above like 50 inches of rain) had below average snowfall. So there are trends...not caused by anything in particular (and perhaps some are coincidences--who knows?)