Maestrobjwa

Just looked at the record...dang, what the heck happened that March? 21" inches at BWI? Lol

Forgot about that one. Mainly because the rest of winter was supposed to be promising per weeklies and it failed Let me ask you something...are you ever actually thankful when you do get snow?

We sure did...which is why I don't even count it!

Ah yes...I think the article I copy and pasted from was from before 2016, lol And yeah I know YOU know...posting more for others here!

Yeah seriously though...I'm not sure why folks are fretting over having to wait until mid/late January...that IS our primo. Just take a look at this list of our biggest storms, and when they occured: (courtesy of the Baltimore Sun) Notice that of the top 20, only 3 occurred before the middle of January. The rest occurred after that! 1. Feb. 15-18, 2003: 28.2 inches 2. Jan. 27-29, 1922: 26.5 inches 3. Feb. 5-6, 2010: 24.8 inches* 4. Feb. 11, 1983: 22.8 inches 5. Jan. 7-8, 1996: 22.5 inches 6. Mar. 29-30, 1942: 22.0 inches 7. Feb. 11-14, 1899: 21.4 inches 8. Dec. 18-19, 2009: 21.1 inches 9. Feb. 18-19, 1979: 20.0 inches 10. Feb. 9-10, 2010: 19.5 inches 11. Mar. 15-18, 1892: 16.0 inches 12. Feb. 15, 1958: 15.5 inches 13. Jan. 25, 2000: 14.9 inches 14. Dec. 11-12, 1960: 14.1 inches 15. Feb. 11-12, 2006: 13.1 inches 16. Mar. 5-7, 1962: 13.0 inches 17: Jan. 22, 1987: 12.3 inches 18. Jan. 30-31, 1966: 12.1 inches 19. Feb. 16-18, 1900: 12.0 inches 20. Mar. 13-14, 1993: 11.9 inches

This here...is why I'm a tad anxious about how things turn out this winter--because it could have implications for the future. Could we not say that by the end of this winter we'll know if our snow climo is more damaged? Because I mean...if we get money looks and they don't work as well...that is foreboding. Because then you couldn't say "try again next year", because the over climo would be more hostile. So this winter is gonna be very important for our future snow prospects...and that's a tad nerve-wracking. Our snow future could be riding on what we see this year, couldn't it?

Now on those maps you guys post...above normal heights are shown in red?

Well I've certainly learned something this evening...especially the part about the Chinook effect...and why an EPO ridge is helpful (though I still need clarity on exactly what it is). Thanks for breaking that down!

Well in your case, I kinda assume that...lol

No...from what the knowledgeable posters have said on here...doesn't have to be PERFECT...but just not hostile. (I think PSU said something to the effect of...when other things are great all an opposing factor has to be is mediocre and we can still make things work)

Ya mean like this? (sorry mods I couldn't resist)

To clarify my analogy, Strat warming=hammer Jello=vortex

Now in my brain...I have a picture of a big hammer smashing a huge glob of jello...and when it does, the jello splits...but how the pieces of the jello separate is kinda random. Is that kinda how it is with the strat warming and the vortex?

See that? Heard several saying with some definity that "oh I have feeling the Ravens are gonna go 11-5 and miss the playoffs"...whereas the reality was that the odds were on our side (as long as we win out of course). Sure, the worst wasn't impossible, so I kinda get the fear, but the odds were a bit against it. So now we know missing the playoffs in that particular way can't happen...And now we just bite our nails for the Bengals game, lol I think it could end up being close...wouldn't be surprised if a little bit more adversity is necessary before the playoffs if we are to make it!

Its actually worse than last year because we have the high latitude blocking and we still not tracking anything of significance but its worse for me because on paper we should be killing it Yo how can you possibly say that? We have a vulnerable polar vortex this year...that ALONE is better than last year!

Looks like a SBW (sudden beach warming)

Ah so you have seen him lurking?

Kinda where I'm at...in my mind this winter is literally up in the air at the moment, lol Perhaps this may tell us about where we are with our snow climo in general...(which is slightly nerve-wracking)

Which forum?

Not sure that answered my question, though lol

Now see that there...was gonna be my next question. See, based on that winter, I thought if it was warm up there it would be cold down here...but I'm guessing it's not that simple? (is anything about winter simple? Lol)

Okay, so the Yukon is our main source region of cold? Now how does that work? (is that related to what you were saying with your map earlier?)

So could we say that perhaps 10-14 days from now we'll have a better idea of how the winter might shape up?...

With all the mixture of pessimism and impatience in here...I'm losing a sense of where we are here...Are folks impatient or are the LR looks actually not looking as good as they were a week ago?

Sending Merry Christmas blessings to all of you! Be careful not to let any snow worries cloud this special day...bask in the hope and joy of Christmas (yes, believe it or not, it is there even in a year like this). God bless!