Maestrobjwa

Oh yeah definitely--storm will indeed exist, lol Let's just see where the arrow will point...(would love to see the 0z euro come east a bit)

I wouldn't call this totally uncomplicated...and that's only because of the se ridge... That's my concern as well. If the other models aren't accounting for just how much that ridge may flex...we may see them fall in line with the euro in the next day or so. That seems to be the one way this goes wrong.

What church is that? (And do we have any other musicians on this board? )

May end up being more accurate than the new GFS...lol

Yep...like a game of jenga or something! We now have more CAD but now the se ridge is flexing...Whereas a few days ago we had less cold air...but a flatter se ridge. Snow life in the MA! This is one of those setups where...if ya see something 3-4 days out that has even a chance of crashing the party...assume it will but hope for the best, lol I won't be too high on this until we see even a slightly weaker ser modeled. I can picture thump trending wester and wester in the coming runs...or staying within the goalposts here (hopefully).

The hot heavy part is the key here...which is why we gotta hope the se ridge plays nice!

Se ridge pushing moisture NW is a tangible threat...does it mean to just punt? No...but it is something to keep in mind. Hope it improves on future runs!

Think this run just kinda brought home a potential fail scenario that should taper our expectations for now...we gotta look for how much that se ridge flexes because, from what I understand, it could make a huge difference!

I'm telling ya...We solve one problem with CAD...but now we gotta worry about not having enough moisture because of the se ridge! So it goes around here...fix one issue and another comes, lol

Would this...be an example of the fail scenario where the se ridge bumps the waa too far northwest?

I was about to call 1-3 inches a bit low of a forcast...but after what someone said about the se ridge...might end up being right, unfortunately...oh that dang ridge!!

GFS seems to be a bit on it's own in terms of the weaker wave solution, doesn't it?

I agree. Very informative and real...but his constant complaining and trolling of "wxtwitter" gets annoying sometimes (I just don't get why he doesn't just block those people, lol) But if you can look past that...he does some pretty good analysis, imo

My goodness that's literally a minutes from where my grandparents used to live, lol (and 2 blocks up from where I regularly get my haircut)

I admire teachers because that takes a special gift...My mother and both her parents were middle and high school teachers...but that gene skipped me, lol Couldn't do it!!

Which school do you teach at?

Crying shame it had to come to this. Oughta be ashamed of ourselves (some of us, anyway)...so now, how do we clean up this forum, then so the good folks can start posting again? Personally, I'm willing to be subjected to a penalty or something for bad posts and such...but I'm guessing that's already been tried?

Ya better call Tyrone! And tell him...his gut feelings are on the line and he must account

I'll bet at least once it's gonna show a snow solution in early April...book it, lol

Lol With this "why the heck didn't this work out?!" year, ya gotta wonder (snow haters must be pushin' the buttons...)

There's always a nice trend on the FV3...lol

Ya read my mind--was just thinking about doing that!

That would be disasterous...and I do regret my part in driving some of them away this year. (Particularly in December--especially regret that. That was awful). Didn't fully realize how it was affecting others on here...I've made a conscious decision to try and do better...wish others would do the same so we can get a bit more sanity back in here.

I had assumed it was just a theory as opposed to an actual answer to said mystery, lol

My goodness...and people wonder why we're losing our minds in here, lol A mystery se ridge that won't budge even when all else wants to play nice...mercy! When ya figure out the mystery, let me know...lol Can you recall any other winters where we saw this?