Maestrobjwa

That's why I don't understand the hysteria in here. It was never progged to be before the middle of the month! (and historically it's always mid January on even in most of our best years)

It literally farted out flakes...lol

Define "real cold air"

The problem is expectations were too early. Dude, when did you hear anybody (other than DT's slightly early call) say anything about early January being the period to watch? Now either I missed something...or the thinking has been mid-January on for good potential. The blocking is already on the doorstep...as this run of the GFS shows for the 11th @psuhoffman the suppression on that run is indicative of that, right? And Ji, tell me...how many moderate or big storms have we had before the middle of January in our history? Answer: Not many (got two December big hits, and one early January--that being 1996). So even in our best years this is kinda how things happen. It is far too early to panic (although I know you do anyway, lol). So no, not having anything to track by now isn't a "problem" imo.

Giving up based on...one event? Now I could understand if the longwave pattern wasn't looking as favorable in the LR, or if we weren't still progged to get blocking, but...panicking just because of the weekend deal? Don't quite get that...look ahead, folks! Better off letting the weekend go and letting it be a surprise if it works out.

I'm not even focused on Friday (never was, really). Time to watch is afterward for me...I view Friday as a possible starting date for tracking (unless the 11th/12th deal works out...how's that looking, btw?)

Now I don't get that...why would your thread would be neurotic? You guys live in NEW ENGLAND. Average snowfall is what...30-40"? So why? Lol

That would be a very nina-ish result (snowhole), would it not? Would love to get in on one of those storms, but...as long as we have something to track beyond that...I can be okay with it, lol

Although it will be historically easier...we have done a lot better in their stadium in the playoffs than trying to play them here. I feel a lot better playing them there than here!

And with that...we are in!! Now to get the biggest monkey of our back...and go on from there!! LET'S GO!! Go Ravens!!

And this is the chaos part I don't like...because you don't know what's gonna be a favorable interaction and an unfavorable one...and or if one interaction happens at the right time or the wrong time...dang it, lol

Thanks for the write-up @psuhoffman! A good reference to have..So essentially, I gather from this is that pure Miller B's are kinda heartbreakers that either screw us completely or, at best, give us a small-moderate amount while dumping more further north/northeast? Could we say, then...that the next time we have a modeled pure Miller B, it's better to look at it as low probability? (no matter what the op depictions are, lol) The southern system part makes sense...I can see STJ involvement is kind of our bread and butter isn't it?

Yeah I mean...we weren't even expecting this to be a thing a week ago. As you said, this would be pretty much gravy on top of what could lie ahead if things keep trending well!

So let's see...we have this scar, and the Boxing day scar. Both between Christmas and New Year's...I rest my case, lol Never trust that time frame down here for decent snow, folks! Wait till afterward...most of the medium/big ones fall between early/mid January and President's Day.

Ah I see...(same thing about the date, though...moderate to big storms don't happen between Christmas and New Year's, lol) Now...I'm still unclear on what Miller B's fo here...Now I assumed they were like a 90% failure here because of the problem of developing too late. Yet we can do better with a hybrid? @psuhoffman @CAPE or anybody else care to weigh in on this?

A snow event didn't work on December 27th? Surprise, surprise...lol What happened that time...suppression?

Ah, a GOOD head fake for a change!

Love seeing the active STJ! (assuming that's what I'm looking at, lol) Now that's a bit atypical for a nina right? (If so, it's refreshing to have a something be a GOOD atypical for a change!)

Happy New Year everyone!! God bless

Sweet mercy...are you over there? Lol

It's that stupid emoji he used that did it! I kinda despise that thing, lol

Alright kids...sing it: So-lar min min min min-min min-min So-lar min min min min-min min-min So-lar min min min min-min min-min So-lar min!

Rubble or the dinosaur? (but seriously what are you referring too? Lol)

Now you know that caveat won't work...worrying will always commence, lol

The second blizzard was pretty cold...although I remember there being a warm layer there that turned to freezing rain for a time in the corridor (and my 19 year-old ungrateful self was sittin' there complaining about it, smh)