Ya know...maybe this is too simplistic, but...after last winter, it seems like we're better off relying on the history of the ENSO state we're in. Had we relyed on that and ig bored the rest, we could've predicted the 15"-18" inches we got, lol (didn't see any weak Niños that had much more than that...but I could've missed it) La Nada is the only state where the result really seems to be 50/50