Maestrobjwa

Out of the question, lol Tok many Baltimore times! (no matter how much I love snow!) But I wouldn't rule out 7-10 miles north

Seems to still be a mix of snow and rain...about 50/50

Must be that close...I think I'm starting to hear some ping-ping outside

But IF we are to run into PAC trouble, gotta wonder if this could be our last window for awhile (which, again, wouldn't be much different from what we've seen the last several years...the time between Christmas and mid January has become a null-zone, lol)

Let's say that this issue does indeed happen...do you think we recover by prime climo time (that is, Jan 15th on), or does it even cut into that?

I think that's Iso's real name.

For me, a shortened climo window is if something would cut into the Jan 15th-February 20th prime climo window. But if something just pushes things down the road to mid-January...that would be pretty much normal, lol

Oof...What is it with that? That would be a carbon copy of last winter! (where even you had a very slight meltdown at the end of the month due to the pac air, lol) Why does this keep repeating itself? Now, personally...I never expect any snow events between Christmas and mid-January (because it literally never happens down here for whatever reason...only exception was the Blizzard of 96! And I think that was linked to the La nina somehow). So, if we get into a shutout pattern, I could bear it...as long as it doesn't extend past that...because then you're cutting into prime climo with that crap!

And even in the blockbuster 2009-10 year...didn't it warm up by Christmas? (I remember a mildish rain washing away most of the snow, lol)

I wish we could have an unwritten rule about not mentioning the srefs, lol (but seriously what purpose do those things serve?)

I see...so if a winter was gonna be warmer, add in the minimum and we get average. Cold + minimum=below average...that's interesting! Now...wonder what bearing that has on snowfall totals? (I'd like to see this expanded to explore that relationship). And what happens with those teleconnections (like the AO, NAO, etc) While this says that colder winters come just AFTER the minimum, the snowier winters seem to be more split between just before minimum (1995/96) and just after (2009/10). So now the question is...where will things fall for this winter? Lol And since I'm in weather streaks mode...I will mention that we have cashed in on the last three minimums (starting with 1986/87). Now before that the results were a little more varied (but still more cash-ins than misses near solar minimums!

Ohhh yes...I'm more or less aware of some of those from previous decades (especially the 70s--I'm guessing those were the 8 years without a storm? Lol) Which is why I only emphasized the last 26 years...Just talking about the current streak we're on, that's all (since that's what is current and has been current). Of course that doesn't, with any certainty mean it'll continue, but at least for now...streak is unbroken Random flukes, I suppose! (now I will be laughing if we do get a foot this year, though...lol But trust me, my expectations are about as neutral as the ENSO state right now)

Totally get that from a statistical view...just something kinda fluky that doesn't have an explanation. (now it will be funny if we do indeed get a foot at one point this winter, lol)

Oh of course...so it could mean nothing at all. Just a current streak in a small 26 year window that hasn't yet been broken. (now I'm a streak guy, and when something is current, I'll put just a few coins of hope in it until it breaks, lol) Could always be broken anytime! (And of course WDI is just a joking term, lol)

Alright mods, this is a WDI (we're due index) post, so if this is a bit much feel free to move to banter: I've always bee intrigued by a strange trend: By the BWI numbers...Since 1993, we have never gone more than 4 years without getting at least one snowstorm that gives us a foot (so usually every 3-4 years!) This winter will mark 4 years since 2016...Trends can always be broken, of course...but until it's broken, I'll put a little hope in it! (Note: Again, this is based stricly on BWI records...obviously some folks got a foot last year...but BWI didn't, lol) (2 footer snowstorms have a similar, but longer trend: it's always every 6-7 years. 2016 was 6 years from 2010...wonder if that means we get another in 2022 or 2023? Lol)

Looks like we're on the back edge of it...but it feels like it's moving so...SLOW

Turns out Humphrey got a little piece of that ball

Man, I wish this rain would hurry up and get outta here, smh Ravens tackling has never looked bad all year until today...gotta be a factor, lol

Something told me they were gonna do that!

Indeed...And 3 of the 4 above average years came in a row! (something else that kinda rare--hasn't happened since, well, the legendary snow 60s, lol) For this region, it's been a pretty good decade overall (better than the previous two!). But I'm sure it's recency bias that may make it feel like we've been screwed--but, as you said, we've actually done pretty good! I guess my question about the MJO was rooted in an, er...slightly illogical concern about possible climate change making some anti-snow factor in the atmosphere become more of the norm. Thankfully we don't see that so far (uh, right? Lol)

Forgive me, but...Come again? Lol I'm a bit confused by your answer...(Not sure what that has to do with my question about the MJO)

I almost hesitate to ask this because I know somebody is gonna mock/troll, but just a legit question (trying to learn) Let's just say, hypothetically...that climate change were to result in the MJO staying in the bad phases longer from now on...Would there be anything we could look to to counteract that? Or would we just have to hope to try and score during whatever brief times it goes through the good phases? (wouldn't want that option...lol average snowfall would certainly fall in the future) Or is it more complicated than that? (Can other things influence the MJO?)

Wait a minute...How are we back on that exact date as our snow miss (and subsequent warm-up) last year? Can someone please turn off the atmospheric tape recorder? Lol (different setup, I know...but I'm wondering if the result repeats itself just to troll us, lol)

So I think I may have asked this before, but...overall...is modeling getting more volatile now? (I know it wasn't what you'd call "stable" before, lol) From here on, are we going to see less consistency? And are things going to overall start behaving in ways different than before? (And on that subject...I'm wondering if analogs are gonna become more and more useless!)

I'm guessing that's why very +AO Decembers led to below average snow for the season...(I guess being shutout the first half of winter decreases the amount of chances...thus lower snowfall totals...ack) Sounds like whatever chance we have the first week of Dec may be the last we see for a little while if the +AO verfies...