Well...what looks different from this time a year ago? I'm hearing the same language from others: about the Hadley cell, the Nino possibly "not coupling" to the atmosphere again...SST's looking the same as they did this time last year, PDO looking negative if not more so as this time last year (and hearing someone else in that thread else suggest that that look screamed "trough in the west, ridge in the east")...so I thought perhaps saying last year is a safer bet if you were a gambler...lol I mean, is there anything to suggest we'd see more than last year right now? (NAO?) Could always be less, of course...I never rule that out around here, lol
And btw, while I'm coming around a bit more to the reality of "chaos" in forecasting...I still don't like it, lol But I am slowly learning that it's better to expect it to break wrong in higher expectations...and ignore it and be pleasantly surprised if it breaks right in lower expectations.