Maestrobjwa

And what would that look like if we were to finally get a -NAO again? (Now having a super nina spoil low solar and possible -nao would be a poke in the eye, lol)

That kind of thing is only decipherable by the meteorlogically elite...lol

I just skimmed through ut...got lost in some of the jargon though. (not well studied in meteorology, lol Perhaps if I could see a particular example of a winter where this applied) When it kept saying 3-4 years...was it saying that was the lag from the solar maximum or minimum?

No, no, not bitter (really more like lessons learned, lol)...but just...I know several good posters have been chased away from here because some of the crap we see in here. So when I see somebody doing the very thing that probably chased folks away, it's kinda frustrating. I'm resolved to do better myself...just want folks to do the same!

So...could we go back and look at which side of things we were on in 2009-10 and 1995-6? Something that caught my attention last year when folks started talking about the minimum...When looking at a list of the yesrs each solar cycle over the last 100 years or so is estimated to have "started" and looking at the corresponding winters--the winters where we benefited from it were usually either just before or just after the estimated start of the cycle (now I could not, however find any concrete dates that indicated where the minimum bottomed out--so I could only go off of the years where the next solar cycle started. (Also looked at some charts of solar activity...will post a couple of them in a second)

That's the reality...@EastCoast NPZ I would also suggest you google "BWI snowfall" and download the PDF...you will see exactly what PSU is talking about. There is a pattern of ebbs and flows are throughout our history (with the exception of that truly epic run we went on all through the 60s were 18 inches was the MINIMUM we would get every year, lol BUT...if you look at what happened in the 70s? 7 consecutive winters without cracking the 20 inch mark--and only one of those even went above the median amount of 15"! So...it balanced out and we paid the piper, lol But no other decade in our history has ever looked quite like that! Sir in all fairness...you made so many posts like that during the winter that it was difficult to tell whether you were joking or complaining this time! My apologies for not seeing your jest, lol

Oh stop--it's not even October yet...and this post is already in mid-winter form, smh Do you not realize that this is precisely the kind of post that drives the better posters away from here? Now I'm trying to do better this year--and I suggest you do the same...Last few winters were underwhelming overall, but we all know that...please stop.

You don't say...wonder how strong the correlation is? Hope it will have some meaning! Now which forecasts are the sst-derived ones?

I think we just need to assume it won't be there until it actually comes back (if it ever does!) and analyze accordingly! I'd much rather focus with that assumption than even considering it a possibility (and the inevitable Houdini that results, lol)

So...is a non-existent -NAO during the winter months the new normal? (hope not) Or is it just on some decadal cycle as some have suggested? Been gone for a long time now...(2012-13 I think?)

I hope not...because wouldn't such a strong jet still end up screwing all of us (NE included?) over more often? (would kinda suck if that never-ending "progressive" flow and all that stuff were to become more of a norm). Or...is it more about the placement of said jet? (I could be misunderstanding the correlation though)

Lol No, no...They that design those things are experts in their field and I respect that. Biggest thing I learned from the last couple years is just how much guesswork there is...So I guess by pre-2000 standards... perhaps 3 day accuracy back then is equivalent to 7 day accuracy today, and 7 day accuracy is like today's 2 weeks?

Trust nothing beyond 14 days...like, ever, lol For my amateur eyes, all those things like EPS and GEFS lost a lot of credibility...will not be trusting those again until they actually get something right again! Last year had to be an all-time biggest failure for all long (and even some medium) range modeling. Simply awful

When was the last -NAO winter? 2009-10? Even if it was a couple years later...it's still been a long time. May be better not to even guess at a -NAO being in the equation until it actually happens. Better to see what else we can get to go in our favor! (As far as the ENSO...right now doesn't La Nada seem more likely?)

Nonsense (says this Ravens fan, lol)

Kinda figured that, lololol (just making sure it didn't stand for something else!)

SVR?

Yeah seriously...this one actually bullseyed us, lol Kinda reminds me of the one last week that bullseyed the central part of the city (although unfortunately not strong enough for hail, it seems)

I hope not...Could you clarify what you meant by "this isn't new"? Certainly the PAC hasn't been hostile all decade, right?

I argue the Ravens-Vikings game that day was just as crazy (but more so in the last 4 minutes, lol) Never seen one end quite like that one!!

Now I assumed that close misses like that happen in most of our La ninas...Isn't the 2017-18 scenario one of the main causes of La nina suckage throughout our history? (Due to things in the NS being interruptions and such?)

So now....the last time, the low solar in 2008 did nothing for the 2008-09 winter, but yet it helped make the 2009-10 epic? So I'm wondering if right now if we are on the first "year" of the minimum (i.e. 2008) or the second year (i.e. 2009) that had a good winter on the back half of the minimum (and looking back in history, it seems that, with the minimums that surrounded a great winter, the great winter would usually happen on the first part of the minimum or the second (if that makes any sense, lol)

By that logic, you'd think we'd be due! (I know that phrase drives @psuhoffman crazy.. but...to me, history does have some credence. I mean, that's not to say it COULDN'T happen this year...but just that it seems to be somewhat rare)

Now was the cloud debris a result of those storms out there in TN or was it something else?

Yeah I don't get that...did they not factor in cloudy skies in the forecast yesterday? Or were they simply basing it on what it was doing in Tennessee and such?