Maestrobjwa

Now is it me, or...did we just get unlucky on the trajectory on that one? @psuhoffman was that a product of the fast zonal flow...and that basically if it had started a little higher in latitude on the west coast (or wherever the storm started), we could've gotten it? Had it not been for the zonal flow...does the storm look different?

Ya know...it would help that...if we can't have deep snow anymore...I wish we could have ice storms like the south gets sometimes. Now THAT would be a nice consolation prize, lol Any chance the change in climate makes us more like that?

Ah, so the problem that seemed most evident in 2018-19 may keep haunting us, huh? (that sticks out in my mind because of the early Dec miss and the January storm that was "okay"). Aw man...from what you guys are saying...sounds like there's a possibility what we had in the best years may stay in the past. It's hard to face the prospect of not seeing the deep snow even 4-5 years apart. I gotta wonder if 2009-10, 2013-14, 2014-15, and the Blizzard of 2016 were our deep snow "Swan Song". One of life's pleasures evaporates....and it's kinda sad. All through most of our lives (all of my brief 29 years anyway, lol)...ya knew that at least every 3-4 years you could look forward to having a great winter. That would make the crappier ones a little easier, and open up new anticipation the following year(s) Even if going forward we try to learn not to expect it...it'll still be kinda sad each year. It'll be like a joy of the past now missing. P.S. If this is indeed our reality, I no longer associate the name "Hadley" with any positivity from now on, lol (although I did have a teacher with that name who was a positive influence, so that might save it, haha)

Now hang on...so last winter was an El Niño, though? Thought it was neutral?

Oh wow.....I mean...whoa. Now I hope there's something else that can off-set the pac firehose. Certainly we can still roll the dice with other elements each year? (or else we'd have to cancel how many winters? Mercy. Is the snow equation that simple?) You'll have to break this down a bit..."fast atmosphere"? So how does that connect to the mediocrity we've been seeing post January 2016? Lack of coastal storms? Too warm? I'm a bit confused here

I do hope people behave in here...because this is the last surviving thread on the entire site!

Hm...wondering if there will be any other past indicators we usually rely on will behave the same way? Like ENSO, for example...now 2017-18 certainly looked like a textbook La Nina (unfortunately) And 2015-16 still acted like a typical Super Niño...(which historically have had either one big storm or nothing at all). When a mod Niño finally comes around again...will it be have the same, I wonder? And of course the solar part I always talk about...if that just comes and goes without any effect, that would also be a first...

Dang...that would mean we basically don't have any analogs at all, lol

Knowing this year it'll probably just blow the germs virus around more! But seriously...this hurricane season combined with corona...I'm just thinking of people being in shelters and such. Yikes

I'm not so sure we can say that yet. Could be we might not know until winter 2021-22. There were certainly some instances of a delay...Even with the last solar minimum. We hit bottom in late 2008. But obviously, we didn't see the effect until a year later! And I'm wondering if, on the record, the bottom of the minimum only just happened this year? (in which case, not seeing a result this winter would make more sense) Now, could the solar minimum no longer matter because of a changing climate? Sure. But if the historical "delay" is true...maybe we should wait longer.

What name would that one be?

Wow that is truly astounding...(but sadly not surprising).

Now is that an actual tweet? (I know people fake those sometimes). If it is...thats even more sad.

Add that to that video taken down the other day...It just makes me sad. It's like...this is a time we need consistent information, not "my science versus theirs" The mass of confusion created is maddening and has been toxic to our response. You've got a point...so we'd probably still have some of the conspiracy stuff anyway, lol We are who we are, unfortunately... pandemic + deeply polarized country=this mess!

Did you mean to post this in the other thread? (I can't find the winter connection here, lol)

Just make sure you don't end up in December of 2010, lol

So the theory is that the water not being as warm would mean the the hurricanes that came later in the "chain" wouldn't be as strong?

Could you elaborate on that a bit?

Just the fact that it's still late July and we're already looking at the letter "I"...mercy. At this rate we might burn through half the alphabet before mid August, lol

So how many more absent -NAO winters can we have before we start to think the absence might be permanent (climate change)? I'd imagine this is the longest we've ever gone?

And I hope it does end fast (or better yet not happen at all! ) Sorry, MA bias...lol

Thought I'd pop my head in here to see what crankywx has been severe honking about (ya don't see him honk that much...so I figured it had to be something notable!) So what's going on here? Lol (reading the other posts here now!)

If we are now at the point where neutral ensos are no longer 50/50 and more likely to be bad than good, and we can only score in ninos...that's a sad reality. Seeing as we may only get like what...1-2 ninos per decade? That would mean we'd only hit above average 2 out of 10 years. Man I hope that's not the reality we're looking at...(and why does it seem like ninas happen more times in a decade than ninos?)

Hello! Mid-Atlantic dweller here...Now I'd caution against thinking the euro being on an island is a good thing. Last Friday it was on it's own showing a cutter a cutter up here...until all the other guidance caved to it the very next day, lol Not to say it definitely happens the same way, but...just something to consider!

Yes seriously...I don't ever remember waking up to a morning thunderstorm in February (doesn't seem like we get them a lot in the morning even in the summertime!). Of course the weenie in me says "hey, maybe it re-shuffled the winter pattern!"...lol Either way, this was a bit anomalous, wasn't it?