Maestrobjwa
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Everything posted by Maestrobjwa
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Just the fact that it's still late July and we're already looking at the letter "I"...mercy. At this rate we might burn through half the alphabet before mid August, lol
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So how many more absent -NAO winters can we have before we start to think the absence might be permanent (climate change)? I'd imagine this is the longest we've ever gone?
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Yeah it's up there with the worst...Prior to this year I had 1968 as being our worst year since modern times...I mean, seemingly the ONLY saving grace of that year was the Apollo launch (but perhaps there were some other positives, but from the perspective of this 29 year old...that year was just awful!
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Whoops! Missed a word...But still--I've never heard out that happening! Wow, hahaha
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Wait WHAT? They melted the windshield? How? Lolol
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Now I'm wondering about this...Are we heading out of the minimum, or does this year mark the official "start"? I'm a bit confused about how they measure it. Because if we get a "lag" effect, I don't know where the clock would start from, so to speak, lol
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@Mrs.J You're about to be drafted as the sole caterer of the next forum meet-up...lol (if you haven't been already!)
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Happy Mother's Day to all of the mothers here! And especially Mother @mappy I always view you as the somewhat mother of our forum...giving us firm scoldings and timeouts when we need them
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Agree. I was certainly getting some value out of it and some of the information shared by others. Was a nice place to kinda discuss the virus in a smaller forum than Facebook. But alas...all it took is for a few to derail it, smh
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2019 ENSO
Maestrobjwa replied to AfewUniversesBelowNormal's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
And I hope it does end fast (or better yet not happen at all! ) Sorry, MA bias...lol -
2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Thread
Maestrobjwa replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Thought I'd pop my head in here to see what crankywx has been severe honking about (ya don't see him honk that much...so I figured it had to be something notable!) So what's going on here? Lol (reading the other posts here now!) -
If we are now at the point where neutral ensos are no longer 50/50 and more likely to be bad than good, and we can only score in ninos...that's a sad reality. Seeing as we may only get like what...1-2 ninos per decade? That would mean we'd only hit above average 2 out of 10 years. Man I hope that's not the reality we're looking at...(and why does it seem like ninas happen more times in a decade than ninos?)
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Hello! Mid-Atlantic dweller here...Now I'd caution against thinking the euro being on an island is a good thing. Last Friday it was on it's own showing a cutter a cutter up here...until all the other guidance caved to it the very next day, lol Not to say it definitely happens the same way, but...just something to consider!
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2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Thread
Maestrobjwa replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Yes seriously...I don't ever remember waking up to a morning thunderstorm in February (doesn't seem like we get them a lot in the morning even in the summertime!). Of course the weenie in me says "hey, maybe it re-shuffled the winter pattern!"...lol Either way, this was a bit anomalous, wasn't it? -
2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Thread
Maestrobjwa replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
4 tornados...in one February day. Wow! (can't believe I'm posting in a severe thread in February, lol) Now...shall the old folklore about thunder and snow ring true this time? Stay tuned! -
Thank you for making this, PSU. Ya know, maybe this is just my brain, but...sometimes when looking at these maps that show the -AO and all of those things...I have trouble visualizing the storm tracks while looking at them. Are there any vids that can show something like, say, an animation that illustrates a storm moving through/between these various atmospheric pieces?
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Still a tiny improvement though, isn't it?
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Says the one who all but cancelled winter a couple weeks ago...lol Forgive me but sometimes I can't quite interpret when you say things like "difficult to overcome" (which I took to mean if we started February with that look, the odds were against us)...and then talking about the EPS degrading and not having any cold air to start Feb and such...(and then I hear about a strong PV being a continual factor). I suppose we can always get lucky with a transient window...
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Man I hope he's right...because again, I'm starting to wonder if that could be our last shot.
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Whoa boy.....so now we REALLY need next weekend to somehow trend favorably! Might be then or never, lol (barring a March 1993-style miracle!)
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So you're saying that it's unlikely unless something changes, or you don't see things more favorably the next few runs? (trying to figure out if we need to just toss this one or not...would be a shame seeing as it may be our last shot--at least for now. And you guys don't sound too optimistic about early February right now so...hope this can trend better!)
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Could someone post?
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So basically it's just a bad track that screws us in what would otherwise be a decent area of opportunity?...(what's going on up top to cause that, and is there any chance it could recover?)
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Yeah I was wondering why he said "the last two years" when the last half of 2019 appears to be the actual solar minimum?
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Yeah and getting back-to-back-to-back 30+" seasons was kinda rare too, lol (although some, for some strange reason, like to discount 2016 because it all came at once!). So this snow "drought" really isn't anything major by historical standards!
