Jump to content

high risk

Meteorologist
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    2,915

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by high risk

  1. high risk
    Really interesting that they changed the Montgomery County tornado into 2 separate paths instead of a single 26 mile path, but based on the reports on that map, it's clear that there was an occlusion (left turn) as the tornado approached Gaithersburg, with a new tornado forming quickly to the east.
  2. high risk
    Really interesting forecast for later Friday. Deep layer shear is adequate for severe, but there are big differences in moisture evolution. There is a lot of agreement that there will be some strong low-level drying in the early afternoon (mixing? downsloping? subsidence?), but the extent of the drying differs a lot among the models: Both forecasts have a local min in the DC area with higher dew points surrounding that min; they both moisture things back up later in the afternoon as the front approaches. The HRRR, however, can't recover enough from that pretty serious drying (both in magnitude and coverage), while the NAM Nest has "less work to do" to get dew points back up into the mid to upper 60s by the time convection tries to initiate. I'm pretty sure that the HRRR is significantly overdone, but if it's at all on the right track, frontal convection will struggle. If we can moisten up by late afternoon, it would probably be a SLGT risk day.
  3. high risk
    Agreed, but I was I was feeling pretty good about frequency of general thunderstorms this year up until early May. I think I had heard thunder 5 times before May 1, and there was one year a few years ago (2020?) when I didn't hear my first thunder until the first week of May. But it has certainly been a disappointing May and first 10 days of June.
  4. high risk
    It's *possible*, but right now, 1) the GFS mixes out the already-limited low-level moisture 2) the flow is somewhat downslope ahead of the front 3) the height falls are all north of here Still time, I suppose, for things to trend better. I did well on rainfall on Wednesday, but it's going to dry out quickly here.
  5. high risk
    The LWX forecast has some showers and storms around later this evening, but the CAMs show that initiation will occur much earlier. Not expecting widespread coverage or any concern about severe, but it looks like it be more active later today than initially thought.
  6. high risk
    Friday definitely looks steamy (the Euro is the hottest, but all guidance seems to be in the 90s for most of the area), BUT there seems to be growing agreement that a cold front will roll through Friday evening, bringing in a lovely air mass for next weekend. The GFS has been leading the way with that idea, and other guidance seems to be either explicitly showing that or trending towards it.
  7. high risk
    Not to trivialize the environment that was in place, as it clearly supported tornadoes, but that sounding had 78/77 at the surface; that dew point value was significantly higher than any value in the area and contributed to the supposed great CAPE. I don't consider that a reasonable representation of the instability anywhere in the area at that time. 4000 CAPE would have led to many instances of large hail.
  8. high risk
    very respectable (but sub-severe) outflow here in southern Howard County
  9. high risk
    The SLGT risk should have been drawn farther west. As suggested by the MD, the severe box will likely include at least some of the counties along I-95 in Maryland.
  10. high risk
    Things definitely trended faster with the boundary overnight. Recent HRRR runs look slightly slower again - we'll see if the storms fire just west of I-95 or just east of it
  11. high risk
    I think that tomorrow will be a SLGT for most of the area except western and far northern counties. Good agreement now among the CAMs that storms will erupt along the front early tomorrow afternoon in an environment with decent shear and instability.
  12. high risk
    That dew point is high, but the LCLs were clearly very low, and the low-level shear was quite respectable.
  13. high risk
    My lawn is super thirsty, so I'm pleased to see the CAMs coming into agreement for two rounds of storms tomorrow (late afternoon and late evening) for a lot of us, especially on the north side of DC.
  14. high risk
    It's not a great setup, but in the department of beggars being unable to be choosers, Wednesday seems to have potential to be a MRGL risk day here.
  15. high risk
    The current NWS forecast for Sunday is a continuation of the glorious weather here at the end of the week. Unfortunately, there appears to be a clear model trends towards at least some rain.
  16. high risk
    This thread will definitely be dead in terms of short-range threats for a bunch of days, but there is hope later next week and beyond. The medium/extended range guidance is in pretty good agreement on troughing over the eastern U.S. starting later next week and potentially a northwest flow pattern beyond that. I'm cherry picking a bit here, but this forecast is fairly representative of the global ensembles for later next week: Yeah, a further west trough axis would work a bit better, there is no point in worrying about details at this range. The bottom line is that there is agreement on a more interesting pattern here after the gorgeous stretch of weather at the end of this week into early next week. CPC's 8-14 day temperature and precip progs clearly reflect an eastern-based trough.
  17. high risk
    This was a real screw job today. The CAMs were excited, and the radar looked great on radar early in the afternoon. But most of the line north of DC really crapped out but then redeveloped over Anne Arundel and Baltimore. Disappointing, especially since it won't rain now for days.
  18. high risk
    Yeah, there is really good CAM agreement that an organized area of showers and storms will arrive between 3 and 4pm. I'd say that the 3pm event is in a lot of trouble. There is much less certainty about what happens behind the main round. There will likely be a few more storms in the area between maybe 5 and 9pm, but they'll be scattered, and trying to pinpoint timing / location is very tough.
  19. high risk
    The HRRR and NAM Nest overall handled this pretty well. The storms ended up extending a bit south of DC, but the overall idea of the best coverage and intensity north of DC, along with the show not occurring until late, was spot on. And while there were a few wind reports (and 1 hail report?) the TOR threat was overall low; maybe I'll be shocked, and they'll find something near Laurel, but the signature that prompted the warning was modest at best and did not last long at all.
  20. high risk
    Jealous. Not too far south of you, I only got 0.10"
  21. high risk
    Yeah, the art of figuring out which type of watch, where / when to place them, and make them connect is referred to as "boxology" by the SPC forecasters.
  22. high risk
    HRRR has been consistent with a few cells forming over Montgomery County and vicinity after 6pm and then affecting DC and points north as a line segment. It may be wrong, but it's sticking to its guns. The supercell composite has looked good to the south and southeast of here all day, so I understand the tornado watch down there. I think that SPC just decided to go with one big tornado watch instead of a tornado watch for southern VA and eastern NC and a severe box for the DC area..
  23. high risk
    Convection now firing in the eastern WV panhandle, very consistent with recent HRRR forecasts. If there is going to be a show, and again, it would mainly be DC and points northward, this is the start of it. I still think that the lack of heating precludes a much more significant event, but the HRRR says that storms will be strong if we can get to near 80.
  24. high risk
    As you noted in the MD you posted, though, the backed low-level winds are in the eastern part of that entire MD area. It's not a north-south thing. Over the next few hours, low-level winds in the DC area up through central PA and west-central NY are clearly progged to veer, which would make the tornado threat very low (unless there is some interaction with a leftover boundary). Over the Delmarva and NJ up through eastern NY, the hodographs may indeed support a low-end tornado threat. Of course, initiation has already happened over central PA, while we're going to have to wait a while in the DC metro area (and I as noted earlier, the HRRR only likes areas from DC to the north, and not until dinner time), so I have no clue how SPC will issue boxes today.
  25. high risk
    I'm going to toss the HiResWs (which don't assimilate ongoing rain) and focus on the NAM Nest and HRRR. Both show some limited airmass recovery this afternoon generally north of DC and generate at least a few storms across northern and central MD towards dinner time. Surface winds are veered, so unless a storm finds an outflow boundary, the tornado threat is likely lower, but IF we can get heating, the shear would support at least isolated instances of damaging wind.
×
×
  • Create New...