jbenedet
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Everything posted by jbenedet
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This uncoupling argument, saying it will stay indefinitely uncoupled is weak. It defies the physical equations. The atmosphere *must* respond for the system to rebalance. The longer it is uncoupled the stronger the El Niño will become; and in turn the eventual atmospheric response more extreme. .
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I’ve never seen people spend so much time at something and still be so bad at it. Zero improvement. It’s sad. That’s typically the world’s way of telling you—“do something else”. Listen up.
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It’s gonna be okay guys. Enjoy the nice weather.
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oof to all those who took those 18z Nov 18 runs. Don’t PO the in-laws on Turkey day with shit forecasts guys.
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Seeing is believing ?
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PSM hit 40 this afternoon. -7 for a polar airmASS
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Thanksgiving looks beautiful in SNE. What a beaut.
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Turkey Day turning into DSD in SE locations. Looks nice actually, mid 50's for SNE.
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This map makes a lot more sense. Still too aggressive with the cold in the east
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Yea that’s the guidance consensus. I think it’s about 6-10 hours faster to scour in eastern sections. Surface Winds turn southeasterly pretty damn early and water still in low 50’s. Think it’s most likely that interior CNE follow your timing.
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CPC drunk with this map. The whole thing should be shifted some 750 miles west With regard to SNE, there is one day BN on the 6z GEFS through next weekend, and that’s tomorrow. Tuesday will start cold but end normal to slightly AN for most.
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@ORH_wxmanwas tracking 2 potential snowstorms during this window The GEEFSE just shit on his head
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That’s a great find. Well done.
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Now send some pictures of geese and the pope.
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Say the same thing over and over and over. It wasn’t funny 3 years ago.
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Lol. A day of 30’s in late November. You showed him, alright!
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Another day on the motorcycle. A break next week and then she’s back out the week after. Noice.
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That 6z GFS run is what you get with an sig -NAO. And the MJO phase 8/1 None of it fits big picture. MJO phase 1/2, will permit UL ridging in the east. And the forecasted NAO is strongly positive before this system arrives, the Canadian high in the east will be exiting stage right instead of anchored Rope-a-dope run.
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yea. I took my motorcycle into work this morning. Sweet deal. It's still, any semblance of AN in the atmosphere and it's lift off. Conversely, it takes the stars to align for us to get sig BN. Hedge accordingly.
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Tomorrow looks beautiful - low 60's. The cold behind the front looks like it takes us back to Normal. Saturday maybe very slightly BN, and Sunday back above.
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yea. We're headed to phase 8 ->1. That cold is legit and is dumping into Central plains, but I believe it's going to moderate a lot as it heads east at our latitude.
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The subsequent cold shots (after turkey day) are also going to dampen out as they dump into the plains and then moderate as they head east to our region. Normal at worst.
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Big GL Cutter. We knew. Warm sector easily up to Winne. +NAO with deepest surface cold over the upper midwest. Nothing stopping a bend back into central ontario
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2023 Atlantic Hurricane season
jbenedet replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Not an STC? https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-E_Gulf_Coast-01-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined -
2023 Atlantic Hurricane season
jbenedet replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Weird seeing lemons and cherries for theoretical points of interest and nothing for where the observations continue to be most indicative of tropical development in the north central GOM. I get the guidance has been pessimistic on development of this feature since it’s inception, but that’s also why it’s just “guidance”.
