jbenedet

Really can’t ask for a better HP in Canada (can it get any better than that??) and that’s what worries me. There continues to be a surface high off the SE coast—or said differently: our Canadian high extends all the way to Bermuda . Winds are easterly throughout. Major run to run constant is east Canadian cold that wants to escape east rather than drain south (a +NAO red flag). Also tendency is for the Canadian high to retreat rather than anchor. The 12z GFS was probably best run in this regard, so far and yet still a warm outcome for most. The surface temps on the 12z GFS are bogus with Easterly/southeasterly winds ripping all the way up to York Maine, starting at precip onset0z Friday. Way too cold. This run would be an end to end soaker for the sea coast of NH. Imo, still very unfavorable odds for big snows outside of Winne on north line across NNE.

DAW low of 31. PSM 32. Guidance:

Yea. Pretty sure all guidance busted way low on temps for the overnight. An inch of glop has staying power if you can get a hard freeze right after it. Instead ground isn’t even frozen so with the overnight melting, soil soaked it right up. Back to brown pretty quick

What’s a snowblower?

Yep the same birds out and about since Mowvember. There were signs.

Temps stayed way up all night with the overcast, apparently. Doesn’t even look like we fell below freezing. Driveway 75% wet, and clear of the 0.5” that accumulated on it last night.

Still haven’t had to clean the car off this season. White rain ftw.

Most surfaces an inch or less. Pretty incredible seeing the background surface warmth today. Especially DAW on north. Most impressive since I moved here in 2015. Noted.

Wet roads in Rochester NH. Eyeballing less than an inch on grassy surfaces. Melting inhibiting accums. been snowing light to moderately since 9.

You're right that it is confusing the way I wrote that. I edited it. But what I meant was a track with an early H5 occlusion that slides south of New England (generally favorable to snow) still ends up WARM.

I usually don't comment at this lead time, but the day 7/8 event is (currently) terrible odds for big snows outside Maine and far interior of NNE. Even with an early occlusion and favorable H5 low track (south of New England) and 1040 mb high in QC, end up with a big rainer for most. That's your CLEAR warning. You've basically seen the best result (output) of this setup for snow, and the ultimate outcome is still WARM. The confluence is +NAO based and therefore fleeting. Consistent red flags on this. So, if things tilt more progressive -- then what? An end to end soaker. Happy tracking.

Is that insulting to me or you. Supposedly you use models and are a met expert, and I track geese and don't know meteorology, and I greatly outperform you? The jokes on you bro.

You can quote my posts from 3 days ago which would be more on point than your nowcasts.

@CoastalWx - if you can unlearn everything in meteorology you supposedly know, that would do you well. Maybe you couldn't keep the job, but at least you could forecast weather.

All those rain obs... @CoastalWx ropa-doping the snow weenies into another non-event. The cold-tuck that wasn't. Cold-*uck But he'll surely tell you accurately, what is happening right now!

Are you here for re-analysis or forecasting? We can all look out a window.

Every day. It shows.

Really interesting seeing Albany at 40/39 and North Adam’s MA at 38/35. Incredibly warm for Jan 6. The mesos have this boundary as a quasi stationary front, whereas the globals swing this through the area as a weak warm front associated with the surface low in Ontario. Basically mesos saying the weakening NB surface HP will be enough to hold its ground while globals saying “not a chance” it’s gonna get booted east. Climo matches the mesos; persistence matches the globals. I lean with persistence.

Depends on who ya been following I guess.

Some pointer finger dexterity there. Well done.

Yea this is the one to watch.

No punctuation or caps. How long to hunt and peck this mahk? 10 minutes?

Digging a hole of stupidity. No help needed. Keep going. You're doing great.

Clown maps for clowns, produced by clowns. 240 hrs out. Now that's degree material right there. That's a sebastian maniscalco "Aren't you embarrassed??" moment.

@RUNNAWAYICEBERG Too much prune juice this morning ?