jbenedet

I'm going with a jackpot in the Berks on this one. North Adams area.

The NAM clearly feeling the cold press in the primary --more than other guidance--but the primary holds on much longer (longitude) than other reliable guidance. Net-Net it's a warmer depiction because SNE skunked at 850. But being that the NAM is alone in this aspect, we sell for now... This is one of those where you have to smell the taint to get the highest totals... Cold tucks are significantly under-performing broadly this season, and I'm selling any of them advertised in the east until further notice. But we have seen them show up with stubbornness in the far interior, so I believe this is can be one of those situations.

For Thurs/Fri, The EPS has been trending positively for a more wintry solution in the marginal zones. Weaker primary, less latitude gain, earlier secondary.

We have a well-timed weak cold front with respect to Thurs/Friday threat. I really struggle to see these COLD dews bottled up in Southern Ontario. Yes, even this year. The relative position of the core of the cold over top of the primary should also aid in inhibiting latitude gain. This looks like a classic CAD wedge signal down the western side of the Apps into Northern Virginia. I say shave 5-10 off these dews at this hr. from Albany, VT, west MA down to Western Virginia.

C'mon @MJO812 , you don't even need an imagination for this one. I just realized this looking through the posts above, but the 12z Euro.... This doesn't look familiar???

This look around day 9/10 reminds me a lot of the Arctic blast in December and the prelude to the Buffalo bomb. Not a good look for us easterners.

Yea I def see that risk, but there isn't a low level WAA signal either. So my thinking is areas west with dews around freezing can quickly cool the column within few hours of precip onset. Which again is why this isn't an ice threat - more of a rain/snow deal.

I'll take the 12z EPS for Thurs./Friday and run with that. I think western MA/NW CT can work with this. Thursday, it looks a setup where surface temps will stagnate all day near the morning low out there.

True. I'm just looking at onset across guidance- surface dews are 30-32 in western MA, while northeast MA, mid 30's. And given climo and the wind direction, I'd hedge higher on those, east, and lower on those out west.

This is too N/S to me. I think this gradient gets tilted more SW to NE; rotate the axis a bit. There's an easterly fetch off the Atlantic which i think it gonna hurt eastern areas up until redevelopment. At the same time, low level WAA is non-existent out in southwestern sections, so in-situ sub-freezing dews will stay in place and aid wet bulbing marginal temps. If 850's are stubborn, the axis I'm alluding to would probably manifest in ice/sleet instead of plain rain. Looking at NW CT, Western MA.

lol, just realized it's colder by like 3 - 4 degrees 50+ miles to southwest, over around ORH. And that's vs DAW, which is away from the coastal plain. What a strange system.

Is it still adding up? DAW is up to 34, now so we're seeing compaction/melting etc. The heavy band that moved through earlier won't even require a car clean; just wet. After sunrise, been mostly a wash today in terms of further accums

Yea the UL trough is pretty energetic across guidance - so I believe chances favor continued light snow until it swings through.

Verbatim that's like 36 hrs of snow in the Berks Greens and Monads. There's def upside risk in long duration with this. Guidance continuing to show the possibility. Mostly of the light variety but nice in any season.

Mehhing our way to the best snow threat for the subforum this season. It's a low bar, I know; but solid look at day 4. We take.

I'm seeing it the opposite. This week is an outside week. First seen with the coastal, and then Thurs./Fri with weak confluence in the Northeast and SE Canada. MJO phase 1/8 is flexing, despite the poor long wave pattern. But this is transient. Pattern is back open to UL ridging all along the east coast by next weekend.

For Thurs/Fri, I believe down to the southern Berks is very much in this one. Another case of a weak cold tuck that is displaced west and most pronounced well inland. This aspect will probably surprise to the cold-side. At the same time I could see ORH east having p-type issues until way end.

yea definitely. I also believe the combination of showery precip with temps oscillating above freezing further worsened the issue. Persistent Moderate rates in banding would sufficiently cool the column, with Td’s where they are; but once rates diminish surface temps creep back above freezing, melting ensues, until the next shower moves in.

Lol 37/-1 at PSM No wonder haven’t seen a flake.

Yea once again: for most it’s a lot of snow obs with very little to show for it on the ground. Mid coast to DE Maine maybe cashes in with 6”+ but I haven’t looked at it in any detail to wager one way or the other.

This thing really was a head-fake in every aspect. Gloucester rips for 15 min, but then flurries for the next hour… The patchy-ness look to the radar is indicative of a storm winding down; it’s just doing so at its closest approach. The model qpf output had misleading looks of banding features setting up and intensifying along the coast. Instead it looks like we have scattered snow showers pin-wheeling through with most decaying once near land. Scattered snow showers don’t stack up. So those clown maps clownin’.

Another +5 high in the books. Overcast, North wind and all. Guidance still lost on these surface temps at very short lead times.

Even with the pacific skunked, a combination of weak shortwave plus losing the big +NAO is all you need to see things work in Berks/ NNE this time of year; and that's what we get. With this setup though, SNE very vulnerable to warm sectoring whenever these shortwaves tap the Arctic early, Ohio river valley -->west. I fear this more conducive setup to cold/snow may last only a week or so, though. More noise than shift in prevailing large-scale pattern. This upcoming week it's shades of the MJO in phase 1/8 (it would show its face, however faintly) with the weekend coastal wanting to evolve into a block --> at least capping the ridging in the east. We could go right back to a more hostile pattern after this week. My leaning is we do. So will need to reassess a lot in the second half of this week.

Looking past this weekend and the near-term coastal threat. Pattern seems very workable for all-snow/mostly snow from a line say, the southern berks to just north of DAW, up into just north of Portland ME. Today's "socked in" locations vs torched locations display the juxtaposition well, on where bias is tilted in favor of snow and strongly against, during this time frame. Very climo/gradient based look.

Tickled 60 throughout eastern SNE and didn't even need the sun to do it. Low 50's dews. Nice.