jbenedet

The dews are plenty cold in that region. I also don't see this trending north. looks like pasty snow in the far interior of the southeast. I'm picking up what the NAM is throwing down.

DAW 36/24; PSM 36/26 as of 8:50 a.m. Average high for the date exceeded.

DAW and PSM waking up to 29/23. 4-5 degrees from normal high.

Sunday also has 50 F potential if we can hold the sun. Andover MA area to PSM that narrow sweet spot. Even PWM upper 40’s potential.

I think we will wake up tomorrow finding multiple stations in east MA already 57-60. The timing of the fropa is poor to maximize daytime temps but the airmass behind it is also AN, so temps probably don’t climb from the morning, but don’t fall either as sun and compressional heating offset the cooling aloft. Looks like a great day for a fleece and a walk in the park.

Timing is poor wrt afternoon ISR max and the fropa in the morning. The morning "lows" Friday will likely be pretty epic though. I could see a morning high imby in mid 50's, then temps level off rest of the day, in low 50's as things dry out. +20-25 departures not of the meh variety; but that's me. And in terms of sensible weather - we take considering sun will be out and wind in check.

Futility in terms of winter weather is forecasting white rain. Welcome to futility.

It's all odds. And the odds suck with this. POP is highest where ptype issues are highest. We will find even if the track trends favorably that the prevailing issue will then become sleet/rain/snow mix and some combination throughout. When you need it all to go right, you fold the hand and watch with muted interest only to see how it plays out.

I dunno man, they said the pattern changed back in December.

41/32 at DAW as of 9:50. Sun has broken out. Nice.

“couple warm days here and there” Denial ain’t a river in Egypt. I just make the best of what I can’t control. Misery is close otherwise.

Same. I also think snow threat threads should take a hiatus and record warmth potential threads should take over for the next 2 weeks.

850's are very warm throughout. Dews and surface temps are supportive for frozen. I think the reality is this is a pelt fest in most areas in subforum, where the qpf is > 0.1". The dynamic forcing is in the base of the H5 trough, which cuts off over the southern Mid Atlantic. It's an interesting look--snow-wise-- for that crew. Best to not get roped in up here, unless sleet is your thing.

It's actually really warm out ahead of the front. 50 in Rochester NY last hour. Evening highs on deck before the peltfest?

You didn't see anything.

Nice catch. Cursory looks have their pitfalls. 925 for the loss

It's peculiar for sure. It's like the climo surface cold tucks we get are being over-modeled at every opportunity this year, and by a large margin.

Nah man. Just calling a spade a spade. Literally a ratter is N to BN when there are no storm threats, and AN when there are storms. That is it. Don't make it complicated.

I was just doing a cursory check of the temp guidance for highs today - AGAIN looks really low vs 850 temps, and no surface CAD and lots of sun until afternoon. What gives? 33 for a high at PSM ??? 40 seems pretty damn doable. 42 makes more sense to me than 33.

Did I meh this already? Those single digits are way up an in. By and large pretty close to normal by the looks of it. PSM: 34/16 normal high/low. Bottomed out at 21 at PSM; 21 even up to DAW.

Meh. It’s bottled up north and heading east. Western upstate NY says “what cold”. Normal low here. Normal high on tap.

Pretty sure that’s just the definition of a ratter. Some call it an odd winter; others call it a rat.

This logic... Then how do most areas in an around Presque isle have 20" or less on the ground? Sublimation. Compaction. And much less so - melting. If it's not snowing, your pack is decreasing in size. Pretty simple. Anyway. Throw a ratio out there - it's a lot higher than 50%.

150 miles north for every 1000 ft in elevation. Figure 75 miles in your case, correcting for altitude. Conservatively, you're more like 100 miles north of PSM. And that only puts us on the same plane; doesn't account for the ocean affects. Yea, in short, it's a huge difference in climate... I have had more non-frozen precip than frozen this season. And I'm in Dover. Portsmouth is like 15/85, frozen/liquid; whereas you have been more like 85/15 frozen/liquid season to date. And most of that for you is snow.

It really is. 40 miles. But you also have 1000ft elevation, right?