jbenedet

This was advertised as a back door 12 hrs ago, across guidance. Warm sector now makes it to PWM. Worst offenders were the NAM and HRRR. RGEM and Euro handled it best i.e. baited least.

It will be a relative shock, but this is weak sauce. I think guidance is too cold again (shocker I know). This thing is stale surface cold and it’s not being reinforced from upper levels or surface CAD out of Canada; it’s basically cut off. There’s also relatively warm air masses all around it. This ain’t done moderating.

Force shield of warmth in the northeast prevails. This yawner of a frontal wave didn’t stand a chance. Cold anomalies? Not here. At least not yet…

Cold tucks have been over-modeled all season. I'm really interested to see how this one plays out. The teleconnections, warm antecedent airmass and lack of a strong high, signal past is prologue but guidance still pounding the table that it's real. So we watch. Also sell the NAM. If it happens at all, it's euro-esque.

For the coastal plain I'd point to SST's but for you I think it's more of a story of the tenor of season. Lack of snow cover, and surrounding areas with very warm ground temps vs norms. A little bit of wind and poof. So easy - why? Because those areas from which the wind is fanning are scorched, and we have no in-situ cold to slow it. Add this to a current background where the teleconnections are putrid from a cold standpoint. +AO +NAO, cold retreats. So Caribou and the likes keep their cold; we see the air from philly without a fight.

Looks like a low in the mid 20's Saturday morning. For most, a shock from where we have been, but normal to slightly AN. North of Winne looks cold though.

Thanks. Yea it wasn't a jab. More of a re-analysis. As we closed in, I didn't see any guidance trend towards my thoughts, so I bailed due to the combination of those factors.

I had PSM hitting 65. That looks solid.

@Sey-Mour Snow scared me out of my 70 call showing all those overcast graphics. Nah jk. It was really the lack of short term guidance support. *Nothing* came around to show this potential.

I know it's been drilled into our heads that the UL's dictate the surface, but I think this weight shifts significantly at certain times of the year, one of which is now. Soil temps in New England bottom right about now (on average), and trend higher from here as ISR absorption > loss of heat due to land/air exchanges. But with the consistent lack of snow cover, and +AN temps areas in SNE have likely bottomed 4 weeks ago (are 4 weeks ahead of climo). Conversely areas with snow cover are likely still tracking seasonal norms; and are therefore 4 weeks behind. It at least partly explains why areas in NNE under largely the same airmass often can't break the smallest inversions, while areas less than 50 miles away without a pack, do it daily. This in turn creates a positive feedback in the pack-less areas and widens the regional climate disparity, as ISR increases the 4 weeks ahead, turns to 5, and so on... Eventually what happens though is those areas to the north with sustained pack, become areas of locally grown cold. Meso Surface HP's become a regularity, seemingly emerging without any UL support. Due to increasing ISR, and increasing albedo, the surface HP's become stronger--so much so that it begins to modify the UPPER LEVELS, especially as we move into March and early April. Strong surface divergence produces strong UL convergence which gives us those hellish -NAO's in March and much of early spring. Just a theory to partly explain what I believe has happened the past several years and this year is tracking similarly...

Just laughably too low this year; NAM just doesn't see the warmth even as it is happening. I mean, it gets worse - as of 9 a.m., eyeballing it, just about all locations in New England are at or above the 12z NAM's highs for the day.

Wave is really flattening out due to today's wave, which will be SE Canada tomorrow. Destructive interference as Tip puts it. Deamplifying that wave is a catch-22 from the warm side of things. It's through faster and the surface CAD behind it is trending weaker. It's a cold front that takes us back to AN from ++AN. Friday's loss is Saturday's gain.

And tomorrow is the "warm" day

It already is. Get outside.

Sun breaking out in DAW and PSM. We make a run for 55.

What a beaut. Tomorrow we do it all over again.

Cool. Wonder why he's not in the OT or banter thread? Also let the guy speak for himself. He need a hand with that too? Guy has a wolf for his profile pic. Real badazz. That's good; bc he doesn't have any. The reason I point this out is because he doesn't demonstrate any forecasting ability here. Literally just criticizes. IDGAF about a degree if you can demonstrate your skills.

You don't even know what meteorology is, so you could not criticize with merit. And you can't forecast. Frankly, I don't know what it is you do here other than try and stir the pot, with ZERO credibility or accomplishments behind you.

Snow storm chance is highest next week than it's been since mid January. I'll leave it there. I don't think it indicates a pattern change; it is more likely a result of a cold/stormy phase of a cycle (MJO) within persistence. But my uncertainty is high, and therefore confidence is low on the matter of pattern change. There you go wolfie.

You do not excel at reading comprehension. Uncertainty and forecasting ain't your jam. It's obvious.

I think we can confuse noise for a signal with MJO phase 8 right here. MJO is loud noise. We need to see through it. That's all I'm saying. I don't think we can right now. We will know a lot more in a week.

MJO behaving exactly as it should in terms of sensible weather. Too early to declare pattern is changing, instead what I'm seeing is MJO phase 8 showing up in the global guidance with coast to coast cold in Southern Canada, despite the crappy pacific. So there is a window again for a snowstorm if it is well timed. Reminds me a lot of the mid-January period in terms of opportunity and type of storm threats. Since the MJO phase 8 is transient, my base case is a return to ++AN after next week; but it's largely wait and see.

The sweet spot will be BED LWM to PSM. I think you go +5 on those numbers at these locations and the rain is held off until after sunset.

I do in January and early Feb. Do a search for “confluence” over the past month. 6 pages worth of content. How much snowfall does SNE have? We have seen it show up plenty; problem is it has been retreating as shortwaves amplify.

You need the 50/50 to anchor, otherwise it's very similar to the seasonal tenor. It looks potent, but does it slide east as the wave propagates over the plains and amplifies? Find out when this -NAO starts. That is all.