jbenedet

Meh. It’s bottled up north and heading east. Western upstate NY says “what cold”. Normal low here. Normal high on tap.

Pretty sure that’s just the definition of a ratter. Some call it an odd winter; others call it a rat.

This logic... Then how do most areas in an around Presque isle have 20" or less on the ground? Sublimation. Compaction. And much less so - melting. If it's not snowing, your pack is decreasing in size. Pretty simple. Anyway. Throw a ratio out there - it's a lot higher than 50%.

150 miles north for every 1000 ft in elevation. Figure 75 miles in your case, correcting for altitude. Conservatively, you're more like 100 miles north of PSM. And that only puts us on the same plane; doesn't account for the ocean affects. Yea, in short, it's a huge difference in climate... I have had more non-frozen precip than frozen this season. And I'm in Dover. Portsmouth is like 15/85, frozen/liquid; whereas you have been more like 85/15 frozen/liquid season to date. And most of that for you is snow.

It really is. 40 miles. But you also have 1000ft elevation, right?

<45F and rain does suck; but 45F sun, with no wind is pleasant in February. Just find your spot in the sun and the real feel is 10 degrees warmer. Yesterday with a high of 48 was one of those days. Lots of sun and no wind, fully compensated for the temp and dry dews. I will take. 45-55F winds and sun make or break it. Today is also decent. Was just outside with a fleece and hat. Perfect in the sun.

Temp just spiked here. Beautiful afternoon. Mostly sunny. Short term Forecast/guidance temps busting way low. Again. Shocker.

Basically waking up to a normal morning temp wise. Arctic air booted. SW winds. Nice. A little bit of sun will go a long way today. Guidance today overplaying the clouds in SNE again it seems. Looks like more sun than clouds all day, and with 850’s cooked, even SE NH will flirt with 50.

You are the far interior of NNE. No.

Recency bias. When this cold disappears tomorrow they’ll be back to bitchin’ about a rat winter.

No. The snow pack line gets beat back to the far interior. That is the far interior. They will maintain a pack, of course. The rest go brown. Thanks for seeing the same.

Pack going to get beatin’ back to the far interior of NNE, over next 10 days. Everything looks warm; teles, MJO, GEFS and CPC saying the same,

Yea you aren’t sure. None of us are. And even where there is sound scientific theory, you should still never be “sure”. There is always uncertainty. But that doesn’t mean you cannot postulate. We can’t break it down empirically—at least not yet—, but my point is rooted in basic Newtonian physics: nature abhors a vacuum. Or for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. That mean reversion many were calling for, imo, happened all at once, and without a storm. Now work from that basis.

Today is going to feel pleasant compared to yesterday. Single digits to low teens but no wind by afternoon. That’s a 40F gain in real feel. Heh.

This doesn’t portend well for snow chances, going forward, in my view. The cold blows it’s load all at once. Unlikely we will see it when we need it; at least for a while.

Thinking extreme cold/dry (density) translates to higher wind force at the same speed; it’s always factored, but most often negligible. In this case, non-negligible—perhaps 5-10 mph added to reported wind/gusts vs average winter airmass…?

Take em up Saturday afternoon.

Yea. I see that, but I'm thinking the timeline keeps getting pushed forward; expecting 3-6 hours faster than latest guidance. The tele's are already progressive for the eastern CONUS, and the flow is speeding up over the short term.

Sunday will be beautiful at least. 45-50F on deck in SNE to seacoast NH

In faster/out faster. Winds flip southwesterly tomorrow afternoon. My guess is Saturday is another day of midnight highs. 20 is within reach here, despite guidance saying “no way”.

Haha well played. Yes.

Few times in life I want to fast forward to Sunday. Usually a funeral or some shit party I’m obligated to go to. But this is a new one. I’m still hoping (and thinking) we can have an “upside” surprise to the low 20’s Saturday evening, as the core of the cold ejects east. Lame AF.

Aside from the inconvenience and half the weekend indoors, you get the myriad unknown mechanical, electrical and plumbing failures to boot. This shit sucks. If this happens more than twice this season I’m packing and headed south.

True. But there’s a recency bias in this level of active. I have felt it myself. So many chances for snow! Hmm…but for how long? Some are expecting a mean reversion in temperatures; but not in storm patterns? What if both mean revert or flip bigly in the other direction? A different way to not meeting annual totals. Definitely have to be disciplined to stay grounded on calendar days remaining of climate that supports snow.

I believe MJO is still showing up according to its phases but it’s with a background that is ++AN. It’s therefore muting the cold aspect, and making it harder to notice relative to climo. But it’s there. We saw signs of this for 1 week in mid December (phase 1/8), ~5 days in Jan (phase 8), which was topped off by the weird (978mb coastal) that backed into Maine. And now with the MJO in phase 4 we’re seeing it again, with 4 days BN, topped off by PV arctic blast. But this goes right back to ++AN. MJO is loud noise; not a signal of pattern change.