jbenedet

I think we can confuse noise for a signal with MJO phase 8 right here. MJO is loud noise. We need to see through it. That's all I'm saying. I don't think we can right now. We will know a lot more in a week.

MJO behaving exactly as it should in terms of sensible weather. Too early to declare pattern is changing, instead what I'm seeing is MJO phase 8 showing up in the global guidance with coast to coast cold in Southern Canada, despite the crappy pacific. So there is a window again for a snowstorm if it is well timed. Reminds me a lot of the mid-January period in terms of opportunity and type of storm threats. Since the MJO phase 8 is transient, my base case is a return to ++AN after next week; but it's largely wait and see.

The sweet spot will be BED LWM to PSM. I think you go +5 on those numbers at these locations and the rain is held off until after sunset.

I do in January and early Feb. Do a search for “confluence” over the past month. 6 pages worth of content. How much snowfall does SNE have? We have seen it show up plenty; problem is it has been retreating as shortwaves amplify.

You need the 50/50 to anchor, otherwise it's very similar to the seasonal tenor. It looks potent, but does it slide east as the wave propagates over the plains and amplifies? Find out when this -NAO starts. That is all.

Last time we had a -NAO was Dec 20th. Not saying it can't happen but that's clearly a break in persistence. My guess is delayed but not denied. Hedge accordingly on that front, until March

DAW 47/24. "Behind the cold front"

Less of a warm sector means less of a cold sector on the back-side. Take em' down (from big record highs) Thurs/Friday, means take em up Saturday and Sunday.

That's valid. But I think this "Cold Front" is BS; aka a misnomer. The airmass behind it doesn't even take us to normal Friday night/Sat am. The cold stays bottled up in Northern Maine and SE Canada, and escapes east. Full sun, west winds, and relatively warm aloft take care of the rest.

Okay for all locations in New England. We'll go with that.

lol the SE ridge.

Okay so what's your call?

So 33 for a high at DAW? lol. Any idea what kind of airmasses it took for DAW to peak at </=33 this season?!

Next week I see the troughing out west actually becomes more severe. There's a -NAO being advertised beyond 240 though. I think the -NAO needs to come into focus before optimism renews on big snows. Still looks outside 10 days.

MOS at hr 120. I'll take the 6z GEFS and the tenor of the season; with warm SST's, soil temps and pack beat back to the chicken coop. Thanks.

Nope not in Northfield. You're right.

Yea speed it up a bit and 50 potential is high in SNE. I don't expect guidance to ever see this though. It'll raise to mid 40's probably, near go time. The Friday CP airmass will be out in less than 24 hrs. West winds. Sun. SE ridge flex.

Take em up this weekend. More 50's and sun for SNE into SE NNE. Beautiful.

Yea it’s been unusual in that we have been lowering Friday temps, holding Thurs. but significantly raising Wednesday, as we move in. Wednesday nicer day than Friday.

I agree. I was wrong on that. Destructive interference FTL. It’s not all bad for the warm weenies though. Seems to me the trade-off has been less intense warmth for longer duration. This looks like 3 days of 55+ at PSM. The Wednesday wave warms us up but flattens out the subsequent wave and in turn, its warm sector is impinged. Still think 65 is a doable for a chunk of SNE including PSM, but the 70 number is off the table.

45/24 DAW. Another +10 Really nice in the sun. We take.

DAW 43/24. Hat and sweatshirt day in the sunny spots. Not bad.

The latest MJO guidance looks warmer as well. I'm seeing GEFS never making to phase 8. Both the bias corrected GEFS and ECMWF now end in phase 7. Could of course change but hedge accordingly.

Good to see it coming around. Last Friday’s setup got us low 60’s throughout SNE. And that was not nearly as good as this warm-up; especially timing wise. This window has a lot more “warm” tailwinds. We will be a lot warmer heading into it, in-situ airmass, and ground temps, better surface low track with warm sector pushing into southern Canada. I think 65 even at PSM is a conservative low bar.