jbenedet

Pattern is improving but from such a terrible point. I'm comfortable going ratter for SNE before first day of winter. Some observations on why: 1) Generally: Northern stream is traversing our region when big storms are not nearby. Said differently, snow potential is highest for small disturbances, rain potential is highest for strong disturbances. N to slightly BN happening mostly with dry conditions. AN conditions happening mostly with wet conditions. 2) Generally: The Pacific jet is producing our big storms; and even with -NAO in place, and blocking, sig El Nino conditions are sufficient to overwhelm confluence and the BL with p-type/accumulation issues. Blocking won't flee it will, "strangely" erode. 3) Snow-cover near all time lows by Jan 1; this includes our key cold source regions in Southern Canada.

Spotted in Newmarket today.

How do you guys define a ratter? Serious question.

Looks like a mesocyclone moving over SE MA.

Kinda nuts you guys in SE MA are achieving those winds without the convection.

Don’t think so Tip. It’s a valid point but they already managed 31 sustained; 59 gust, this morning 55/54 currently; gulf of Maine be damned.

Event not at all special in terms of the synoptic gradient; kind of a once-yr event on that front. It’s the extreme surface warmth that’s allowing efficient mixing that set this one apart from no big deal. More like a one in five/10. Would have had that one in 10 year “feel”, for sure, if leaves weren’t down.

Enjoy! But please observe safely; i.e, stay off the road!

Gonna rip big time when this front makes it to PWM.

Legit TS conditions at BOS last hour. 39 sustained 53gust. temp 60/58. nice.

Cooked. Have to go west of Detroit to find a dew at/below freezing.

Mount Washington 37/37 with 89 mph sustained. Snowpack in north country getting obliterated.

Storm bottoms out around Burlington VT; 978. 1047 high south of Greenland. PWM positioned between those points, with ESE facing.

I believe PWM gonna get this the worst

Very lucky this happening with leaves down. Otherwise would be trees down all over already and we’re only 1/3 way through this.

Sun is out; filtered sun at Gillette and already 50F.

Bruins game today; pats game tomorrow. Sweatshirts only. We take.

We 50’s AWT

I can see that vis-a-vis 2015-2016. Super El Niños send the +p anomalies (nov/dec) into Southern Canada, and it’s still cold enough to snow—this in turn produces an early rock solid pack in our cold source regions. I believe that helped us out January-March 2016 as pattern shifted more favorable, but generally, not great. Instead, this season, with Pacific being tame, Canada has been dry and most of the precip south….No pack build up. I’m definitely less optimistic for cold/snow than 2015-2016 from this point on.

Kind of an irony where the simplest forecast, again, would have been the best. All the rest is BS. We’re tracking somewhere between 2006-2007 and 2015-2016 snowfall wise in the CONUS. The former was a moderate El Niño, the latter a super El Niño. We’re tracking between those El Niño conditions today; strong El Niño. Shocker! Nope not at all if you can tune out all the noise. Take those years, average the outcome, run it from this point. That’s your best guess for high end snow/cold outcome from here. Hedge in favor of less than that baseline with +1C surface temps vs 06/07; 15/16 average.

It’s an important initial condition. But it’s also one among many. That’s all. It’s all a game of odds. This one piece is stacked against colder and snowier. Hedge. Accordingly.

Hey look on the bright side-Maybe we can break some all-time low records on North American snow cover over the next 5 days.

Eyeballing it, but by end of this weekend I believe North America (including south Canada only) will be tracking close to a month behind in terms of snow cover (SWE). Kinda important to add a AN bias to surface temps until/unless this gap closes. Area covered by snow: Dec 15 2023: 18.7% Dec 15 2022: 42.3% Dec 15 2015: 37.4% December 2015 was paltry snow-cover in the CONUS but manpack across southern canada, especially vs this year.

We've had 8 years of AGW, though. I'm half-kidding on this topic.

Yea it’s warm, but take up those progged surface temps with this look, Saturday and Sunday. Low 50’s make more sense across SNE away from the immediate shore. …Heavy clouds and all, this is a furnace that’s going to take the climo corrections to the woodshed. Won’t see it in guidance, ever, either—we’ll just wake up to it.