jbenedet
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Everything posted by jbenedet
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That gray and white is going to get wiped out today; up to 4". I don't think it's sitting pretty until you find those shades of 6". Areas south/east of that line have had a ton of mixed crap. In a crap pattern I'd much prefer to be far away from the NNE glacier so as to avoid meso highs --> meso lows that aid to sock in 35-40 dank. There's hell to pay for the "brightness" of a snow pack in a shit pattern, and that is, ironically more darkness.
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Big pack eating event underway. Dews broadly already up above freezing and can't find backing winds until you're in Wisconsin. 68/48 Cleveland OH. 61/49 Erie PA Philly hundreds of miles from the core of the warm sector already 60/47.
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Atlanta GA will have more snow than NYC and how many other locations in SNE, by this weekend??? Looks like an epic paste bomb around there (by southeast climo standards).
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Welcome to futility.
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How does it go north, though. 1028 mb high over Ohio; dews in the teens down the NC border.
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The dews are plenty cold in that region. I also don't see this trending north. looks like pasty snow in the far interior of the southeast. I'm picking up what the NAM is throwing down.
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DAW 36/24; PSM 36/26 as of 8:50 a.m. Average high for the date exceeded.
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DAW and PSM waking up to 29/23. 4-5 degrees from normal high.
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Sunday also has 50 F potential if we can hold the sun. Andover MA area to PSM that narrow sweet spot. Even PWM upper 40’s potential.
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I think we will wake up tomorrow finding multiple stations in east MA already 57-60. The timing of the fropa is poor to maximize daytime temps but the airmass behind it is also AN, so temps probably don’t climb from the morning, but don’t fall either as sun and compressional heating offset the cooling aloft. Looks like a great day for a fleece and a walk in the park.
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Timing is poor wrt afternoon ISR max and the fropa in the morning. The morning "lows" Friday will likely be pretty epic though. I could see a morning high imby in mid 50's, then temps level off rest of the day, in low 50's as things dry out. +20-25 departures not of the meh variety; but that's me. And in terms of sensible weather - we take considering sun will be out and wind in check.
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Futility in terms of winter weather is forecasting white rain. Welcome to futility.
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It's all odds. And the odds suck with this. POP is highest where ptype issues are highest. We will find even if the track trends favorably that the prevailing issue will then become sleet/rain/snow mix and some combination throughout. When you need it all to go right, you fold the hand and watch with muted interest only to see how it plays out.
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I dunno man, they said the pattern changed back in December.
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41/32 at DAW as of 9:50. Sun has broken out. Nice.
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“couple warm days here and there” Denial ain’t a river in Egypt. I just make the best of what I can’t control. Misery is close otherwise.
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Same. I also think snow threat threads should take a hiatus and record warmth potential threads should take over for the next 2 weeks.
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850's are very warm throughout. Dews and surface temps are supportive for frozen. I think the reality is this is a pelt fest in most areas in subforum, where the qpf is > 0.1". The dynamic forcing is in the base of the H5 trough, which cuts off over the southern Mid Atlantic. It's an interesting look--snow-wise-- for that crew. Best to not get roped in up here, unless sleet is your thing.
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It's actually really warm out ahead of the front. 50 in Rochester NY last hour. Evening highs on deck before the peltfest?
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You didn't see anything.
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Nice catch. Cursory looks have their pitfalls. 925 for the loss
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It's peculiar for sure. It's like the climo surface cold tucks we get are being over-modeled at every opportunity this year, and by a large margin.
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Nah man. Just calling a spade a spade. Literally a ratter is N to BN when there are no storm threats, and AN when there are storms. That is it. Don't make it complicated.
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I was just doing a cursory check of the temp guidance for highs today - AGAIN looks really low vs 850 temps, and no surface CAD and lots of sun until afternoon. What gives? 33 for a high at PSM ??? 40 seems pretty damn doable. 42 makes more sense to me than 33.
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Did I meh this already? Those single digits are way up an in. By and large pretty close to normal by the looks of it. PSM: 34/16 normal high/low. Bottomed out at 21 at PSM; 21 even up to DAW.
