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jbenedet

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Everything posted by jbenedet

  1. jbenedet
    Good questions. My Basis—H5 shows lack of downstream ridging across guidance over eastern CONUS. At same time, the surface Canadian HP appears more sprawling/building rather than retreating...
  2. jbenedet
    The teleconnections support the GFS, imo. Where the arctic is tappable it will be effin cold. And the heart of it just so happens to be closest to NNE at the storms closest approach.
  3. jbenedet
    And you I guess on the EPS...you’re in a *much* better spot than me. This is a cloud forecast up here.
  4. jbenedet
    QPF looks seriously overdone on north side. 1034 HP anchored over Southern Quebec...might even be sunny in most of NNE... Looking more and more like a Northern Mid Atlantic snowstorm... Which is still great for southern CT, RI and SE MA folks...
  5. jbenedet
    AWT virga storm outside of SNE. south shore and cape special.
  6. jbenedet
    The 6z GFS is much more in alignment with this evolution... Overall given the Synoptics and climo this recurve into northwest Fla makes much sense than the euro which has been wanting to bury Eta in the south central Gulf. The mid latitude westerleys are regularly in the northern tropics this time of year. I find it dubious that the front around day 4 will completely miss Eta.
  7. jbenedet
    Biggest risk for South Florida and the Keys is if the forecasted stall/meander occurs more closely to south Florida than is currently projected by NHC. A stall near the keys, or just off shore south Florida would greatly increase chance of very significant flooding. GFS has been hinting at this risk for several runs now. Tangent point but track uncertainty likely very high with this at short lead times given interaction with Cuba (and its high peaks), and then weak steering flow upon closest approach to Florida.
  8. jbenedet
    I think that is fair. For a very fast moving strong hurricane, it comes in more like a tsunami (for lack of a better word) than a gradual rise in water.
  9. jbenedet
    I think in a more qualitative way. It will come in like a wall. Subtle and then shocking...With background flow aligned on East side, it will increase fetch and therefore wave heights which will also help to push the surge further inland... So surge itself, not higher but more impactful—further inland in eastern half of storm and more surprising in terms of how fast the water rises...
  10. jbenedet
    We can compare hurricanes based on size intensity and track...but in terms of impact that doesn’t tell whole story. This one does has a few details that already make it unique and potentially far more impactful than it otherwise would be if we were just basing on the former characteristics. Surprise factor. Stronger than widely expected. Most are likely riding it out (for better or worse). Direct hit of a major metro city, that is very flood prone. Worst storm surge coinciding near/at time of high tide.
  11. jbenedet
    Instead of Lake Pontchartrain, I’d be looking at the many rivers around New Orleans to the south and east and worry about those backing up and heading north once the surge comes in..
  12. jbenedet
    Fortunately it will be hauling ass so hopefully that will mitigate surge. Yes, there still will be surge, but again, forward motion is so fast it may not have enough time to build surge inland too far or compromise levees. This looks like it will be a bad wind event however as time is going to run out before it can weaken from maximum intensity... Forward speed will not affect surge. Wave heights yes, surge, no. The storm surge will seem like it’s coming in like a wall bc of how fast the storm is moving into landfall... Also, I see New Orleans high tide is in 4 hrs, at *6:00 pm* CST. Seems like Zeta will be over New Orleans right around that time...
  13. jbenedet
    Reasoning? Every pc of guidance I have seen shows zeta intensifying—albeit slowly—right up until landfall. Current trends also show this is the case.
  14. jbenedet
    Core is intact and offshore. zeta looks quite healthy and symmetrical. Looks better than Delta did at same time...from what I recall...
  15. jbenedet
    6z HWRF is now showing a strong cat 2 at landfall.
  16. jbenedet
  17. jbenedet
    Imo this is a case of mostly “b” . Speaking for NH, we never had an outbreak here (trending towards this now though) and so d and e don’t apply. What’s missed here —on a national level—is many younger and healthier people are getting it now... I’d combine this with “b” to explain trend in lower CFR. I think big risk for a reversal in positive CFR trend is flu season, combined with no lockdowns possibly resulting in overwhelming healthcare system and treatment quality deteriorating...That would be another “oh $hit moment” ... This risk remains low *for now*...fortunately...
  18. jbenedet
    So the GFS was right after all... Shame it lost the threat after having it for run after run after run, several days in a row...
  19. jbenedet
    95L will be impacting the CONUS given this look. Florida to the Northern Gulf Coast, biggest risk. The latter, a persistence forecast, more likely imo. This should also be a TC system throughout—-not expecting evolution as a STC, given synoptically there will be a robust STJ connection due to shortwave trough over south central US driving warm, moist air over the w Caribbean/GOM/SE US during the period concerned... Dry air, an issue most of this season, unlikely to be a problem this time....
  20. jbenedet
    I’d just focus on out to day 9 right now. That’s when guidance is showing a potential TC. And it’s not in clown range. We need high confidence that a strong tropical cyclone will develop in the western Caribbean first. Everything else is for entertainment purposes at this point.
  21. jbenedet
    Looks like a worst case scenario unfolding for Cancún Mexico.
  22. jbenedet
    Looks like a TS...
  23. jbenedet
    Well about 72 hrs out from my post. NHC already assigned 10% chance to this wave...Still think this wave will be most interesting to watch this week.
  24. jbenedet
    Looks like development of next threat is about ~84 hrs out. At least that’s what GEFS/GFS is hinting at. Tropical wave passing through Florida strait/over southern Florida and into Gulf of Mexico—general track towards western Gulf coast.
  25. jbenedet
    Quite the blow up of convection off the Texas Coast...
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