jbenedet
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Everything posted by jbenedet
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The warmth today is a pretty big indication of the “wind” aspect of the storm potential tomorrow.
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I’m actually thinking the opposite with this. Kinda like that one time out of 20 where the model guidance is not going to fail for its known biases.
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Areas out of the clouds are going to blow past the progged highs today.
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The subtropical jet is heavily involved in this system, and it’s being “amped” by the El Niño conditions; can trace its origins to the south central Pacific.
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Yea. That’s entertainment we’re getting now, as the snow weenies post those 384 hr+ H5 maps with long wave pattern decently positioned “pattern change!” but North America effin’ torched under the hood.
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At least up here... November is a greater snow producing month than April. December is a greater snow producing month than March. Kind of a big deal if you are striking and fouling through Jan 1. Just probability. You know, mathssss.... I think recent years have us biased into believing we can easily make up lost ground with one MECS+ storm. Those odds are not worth banking on.
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Looking a lot like 2015 to date. Especially given the likely outcome of the big warmup starting today and then inland runner this weekend.
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For the love of god; please punt this shit pattern. Seasonal, overcast and dry/cold rain is depression with the backdrop of short daylight hours. BEER.
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lol on those clown maps from 12z today and earlier. White rain FTL
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No need for a vacation south…? staycation; New England style.
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You got NAM’d
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To be sure, taken together with points east where there wasn’t any surface WAA, the surface winds at DAW have been north/northeasterly for past 8 hours; and latest ob is 39/36. Pretty damn telling; WAA isn’t the problem as much as just limited cold around.
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Clowns are gonna clown. The 12z suite. Yikes.
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Lebanon NH at 41/36?! Oof.
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You’re in a good spot, given the elevation and away from coast. But tracking temp misleading with this; dews are stubbornly high at our latitude. CON at 37/37. Lots of white rain; packing and melting on the clown maps, I believe. On the flip side, whatever instability is left, Monday night IVT will likely over-deliver for someone near us though.
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That 6z GFS run with the cutter potential turned bowling ball around day 10 is such a COC tease. I mean, sure if we can project the -2 NAO 9 days out and say that will still be in place; but nothing supports that. Then you look at the GEFS at day 10; surface to H5 and see how much of an illusion that op output is. Sell bowling ball; buy GLC; turned shredded POS in southern Ontario.
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I agree. There has been a clear subtle trend warmer on the GEFS and EPS for the past week of runs in the medium to long range. As you mentioned, too, the Pacific hasn’t woken up yet; and that changes next week. And ultimately when the shift in the pacific is captured in the initial conditions of guidance, the warmth in NA, generally, is going to surprise bigly to the upside.
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That’s pretty damn typical of sig EL Nino years though. Not an “out on a limb” forecast by any stretch but it looks like another have/have not season with much of interior NNE/coldest points of CNE doing quite well (AN snowfall) but persistent p type issues for the rest, BN snowfall.
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Check for me next week
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Welcomed December without a jacket this morning. Newington is already into the mid 40's.
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This looks like dog shit, especially given background conditions. Stop looking for snow and start hoping for minimal pack loss to our friends who have it in the far interior.
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Looks a lot like 2018. Problem for snow lovers, 2018 was a weak El Nino, and November accounted for a sizable chunk of the snowfall. Heading into December with sig El Nino, but less to show for November. Worse still, much less snow, comparatively in our cold source regions in Canada
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Fortune tellers, the lot. Not at all what I'm saying. Not looking at correlations. It is that, IF we had some above average snow accums under our belt already across the CONUS, probabilistically, you "cold and snowier guys" would have something to show for the "uncoupled Nino" conditions, and your seasonal forecasts closer to verifying. Now we move into met winter and sig El Nino conditions await.
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Good luck with this.
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Still not following the logic here. Seeing a weak El Niño atmospheric response to date has allowed El Niño conditions to intensify, and also (obviously) means it just shows up at a later winter date. Unless we capitalized on a snowier than normal November (did not) and December (remains to be seen)—this is a better argument for those calling for warmer/less snowy winter in the CONUS.
