jbenedet
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Everything posted by jbenedet
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I see the GFS vs most other guidance. Maybe I'm missing something? Euro/EPS looks more like rgem. -
I don't disagree. But again, to my original post "equal chances" in mid march, New england, is far from hostile.
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We're after accumulating snow. that's one point. Not necessarily profiles that support snow. The other is - HP/LP it's all relative. Will the cold win? Well it's surrounded by relatively warmer air. Cold is on the run - relatively warm air is overtaking it. You also don't get that classic CCB, which really makes for the big events. That's the point of these depictions, in laymen's terms.
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Yea, Sat morning. Looks like white rain/drizzle imby by 15z. East winds are ripping on the euro, though even with that look. It's tenuous for many. And again the timing is like ideal, if it shifts either way it's worse. I'm a seller of the GFS depiction (for now).
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There's also a light rain drizzle/rot end with this look because how warm the atmosphere is by Sat afternoon. No cold hook-up to the west, north or the upper levels.
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The NAM would have been quite a bit worse if not for the night time onset. That aspect looks key across multiple pieces of guidance. It's effin' warm.
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I'm not really feelin' it. At least not yet. The GEFS are strongly pointing to a resurgence to a +NAO regime. The MJO signal to phase 8 is quite strong around that time frame, but does not at all align with the EPS depiction. Therefore I believe the GEFS has a better handle on that timeframe than the EPS currently, and you're going to see the latter trend toward to former, which is more "equal chances" than gang-busters.
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Lol at the 2m temp guidance for this morning. Today is going to be nicest day in a while. Coupled with full march sun. Packs gonna take a beating today. Was too lazy to clean to car off this morning—parked it in the sun towards the front…already doing its work.
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Phase 8 really loses its cold Jan-->Feb--> March. I don't know why. Maybe someone else here can add. Tomorrow being March 1st, and phase 8 happening around mid month, a blend of the two graphics is probably best, but any way, point is: December and January phase 8 ain't nearly the same as March. Seeing some AN tendency sneak into VT, and MA Berks.
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Have to watch this closely - a big drop in the AO, to strongly negative. This isn't a positive for a more snowy outcome, ironically - it will promote the primary phasing with the northern stream, as the PV sags south out of central Canada, and troughing is heavily displaced to the west. More phasing of the primary means more trouble at the mid levels to the north, and less frozen solutions to the south.
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Seeing a stronger primary on the EPS, and increasing phasing with the PV over Manitoba. The primary was stubborn for tomorrow's event but we had antecedent cold to overcome that. That's the big problem, for many, this time imo.
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lol. Not saying that will happen verbatim but that is like the seasonal gradient right there, to a Tee
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Yea you're def in a good spot, as which has been true on the season. The rest of us...
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Out west to the plains it's trending stronger. I think the problem is damage is done on that front, sending the 540 thickness where many are "out of the game". Confluence is there but with background warmth.
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H700 looks like biggest nagging issue for snow accums.
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Ho hum, no kiddin' . Re: winter 2022-2023
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Where? More specifically?
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850 looks good, but its 925 down you have to worry about most, I believe. Easterly fetch when primary hangs on, and surface high slides east. And potentially sneaky warm tongues above 850.
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It looks like we lose the -NAO though. Complete regime change.
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The UL blocking is favorable, but it's not collocated with deep cold. That's what makes this blocking setup much less impressive than the setup for Tues. This also means that you can get favorable surface track, "outside of the warm sector", but ptype issues remain, bc there's a lack of cold to tap. Southern Canada has been warming since early last week; albeit from a very cold state.
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This one is going to look familiar in terms of the seasonal persistence gradient. I don't think you start to feel comfortable with odds of significant wintry precip until to go from PWM, to DAW, to MA/VT border.
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I believe this primary will be quite a bit stronger than what we are seeing with Tuesday event. 970’s lows don’t go without a fight. Couple that with weaker east based blocking, and then layer that with a warmer antecedent airmass. I think even if you get a Miller B evolution you have broad ptype concerns due to primary hanging on and antecedent warmth. I will concede to a cold/snowy evolution *if* the PV timing is much more EPS—esque.
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Thanks. 6z GEFS is good baseline for what I *currently* believe is most likely. I think slightly warmer version of that. But confidence is low at this stage. Too early to identify track, too much uncertainty with the players in Canada.
