jbenedet

Still Reminds me a lot of the perfect storm. More Extra tropical, then more sub tropical then more tropical. It was in the “grey” in terms of classification the whole time—shades of everything at once. What’s cool about this, is it’s the closest example of the perfect storm since (in my opinion), except this time we get to see what would have happened if it made a close approach to land and ultimately landfall. Key difference will be that Ian had less time to churn up the Atlantic, so the wave factor won’t be *as* impressive.

And not to let guards down, but the perfect storm was ~980 mb. Ian looks like will be similar in intensity. Stronger surface HP than in this case, but close enough to mention. I know that name will take on alarmist connotations but it's a good reference bc so many know about it.

This has all the hallmarks of a STC. The wind limits are not in surface pressure, but in radius. Broader impacts.

Wow - Daytona Beach is getting slammed. Sustained 53, gusting to 72. I doubt that area was prepped for this. National Weather Service : Observed Weather for past 3 Days : Daytona Beach International Airport

I believe the biggest story will be rainfall. But the Tampa Bay Area is going to be right on the cut off for the heaviest. South/east sections get hit hard, north/west not bad at all.

Really curious to know what’s going on in Tampa Bay Area right now. Have to imagine some severe coastal flooding all along the e south sections of the bay with the persistent northerly fetch.

Definitely. It’s all under 5 feet+ of water and 100+ mph winds.

Fort Myers Ground zero. No break from the eye, constant southwest flow—brutal, wind, wave, surge combo for 6 hours.

Yea that would be a big deal in savannah area. They don’t get hit often by canes and one that hits at a right angle is especially unusual. Probably lots of vulnerable areas even in a cat 1.

It will be landfall, technically, but with 5 + ft of water underneath all quadrants, Ian says otherwise.

First Semblances of the classic buzz saw sat appearance that is common with cat 5’s. Eye gaining symmetry on satellite as well.

Ian looks at his best. Beautiful CDO. Symmetrical, uniform cold cloud tops. Firing on all cylinders. First full Appearance of a cat 5 from a satellite standpoint imo. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=ir

Sounds like hyperbole, but an apt metaphor is a tsunami. Nature abhors a vacuum.

The flooding will be from all directions in that area. If the surge misses you directly you still have the canals, rivers, lakes and streams to worry about, and myriad potential outcomes for spill over. Lake tarpon looks like a prime candidate.

@USCG RS Yup. Just makes it more interesting to watch. If Ian was going to get shredded in the Atlantic who cares if it makes it? Being a strong major, also gives more opportunity for short term surprises in track; as we are all seeing. Just watching with keen interest. This is a great one.

Interesting that guidance which has Ian move into the Atlantic re-intensify. Conditions: Favorable -> unfavorable --> favorable.

12z GFS initialized with a 975mb pressure. Still gets down to 960, 18z wed. If we applied a 15 mb drop to Ian at 963 mb, we're looking at 948 mb by 18z tomorrow. That's conservative based on current sat presentation.

Still see a heading slightly east of due north.

Touche. Also, did any model that had Ian at this lat/lon, miss Fla peninsula? Not really a surprise at this point but a LF on the peninsula should be a lock as far as TC weather prediction goes.

No doubt the upper Air environment, synoptically becomes unfavorable upon closest approach to Fla, but Cat 3+ hurricanes, in the tropics can create their own inertial envelopes of stability (if you will) which can greatly impede the rate of weakening so long as the TC is not encountering land and the SST's are strongly supportive to TC development. This looks like a classic test-case. Majors are majors for a reason - they can greatly shape the mesoscale atmosphere around them. Let's watch.

Call it what you want. If Florida was 300 miles NE you’d be seeing heavy rain there. But no obs over the Atlantic. This feature extends back west, closer to the TC. There’s clearly a non-tropical enhanced forcing taking place in the region I mentioned. With the delta T/delta n delta Td/delta n down there you’re going to see Synoptic driven forcing more like what we see in the mid latitudes and north. Bank on it.

Looks like a PRE setting up from Fort Myers east through Orlando on down to southern tip of Florida, including Miami. Model guidance could really be under-estimating the rainfall threat if not keying on this feature. Looks like moderate to heavy rain continues in this area through landfall, some 48 hrs out…

And Tampa metro has gained ~70,000 people since 2020….

The tracks into western Florida are of very significant impact while the tracks into the panhandle look like weak TS impacts (at least by Fla standards). Quite the dichotomy.

Yea. Along these lines, you can clearly see based on steering flow that there is a few scenarios where this could really stall near TB, but that isn't being well advertised by the guidance. The right hook into TB would lead to a faster rate of weakening due to landfall, and being less vertically stacked while the low to mid level flow becomes increasingly ambiguous. This could allow Ian to meander near the west coast of Fla as a TS, which would result in a severe rainfall threat.