jbenedet

Looks like we'll top high temp guidance by 12.

This is awesome.

I really do hope this is pushed out into the future as far as possible. I love a good storm as much as anyone, but I’m very sympathetic to people who will be unable to heat their homes for no cause of their own. heating oil up 75% vs this time last year. Pretty much anyone in the middle class is seeing their after tax raise get wiped out by this.

I take a moped into work on dry days. Wife and I sold one car when she landed a good work from home job, and used car prices went bananas. Easiest big sale transaction ever. Had a bunch of skeptics at work back in April when I first picked it up as to how practical it was. Well here we are in mowvember and I’ll be riding it in every day this week. I agree with Tip, everything looks like 70+ this week, away from the water and mountains.

Man if we could break into sun today.... 68/66 at Islip Long Island.

Our falls are much better than our springs. So much so that I'd take November's weather over May's, and that's especially true through mid Nov/May. Climo and event planners would strongly say otherwise though.

Planning a trip with friends to the Berks mid January. Any tips on best towns/cities to check out or stay closest to?

Guidance trying to spin up a weak surface low around Florida, Friday. Looks STCish. The WAR pumps so whatever does develop will ride up the coast. Something to watch with mild interest.

Preliminary property damage estimates for Ian so far range from $42 billion to as much as $258 billion, with some landing in the middle. https://www.route-fifty.com/management/2022/10/how-costs-disasters-hurricane-ian-are-calculated-and-why-it-takes-so-long-add-them/378465/

Last night was very mehh... But the wind was always set to come at the end, which is showing up nicely. 43 kts sustained headed up to Portland ME. NDBC - Station IOSN3 Recent Data (noaa.gov)

Regional max looks like Portland Maine.

I get the technicalities. 99% of the people who will be affected don't know or care. That's all I'm saying. Go tell your neighbor about the mesolow coming up the coast and watch for that dear in headlights reaction. And for the NHC it's the 99% they are measured by, whether their warnings were adequate. They ultimately need to hedge forecast risk against sensible weather outcomes; not technical definitions. Eh. Whatever.

Will see. Could be full of it. But some of these rapidly ejecting NE/ENE nascent Tropical lows are so strange. Strong UL divergence trumps all factors, at times, I guess. You'll see them spin-up in no time in the middle of marginal conditions and yet ideal conditions in the Caribbean it takes 3 days for the same stage of LLC development.

It's so shhhhtooopid to call this a mesolow. But yea i believe the highest rainfall totals will be to the north and east of the "mesolow". Right front quadrant. Gonna rip. 5-6" in two hours? No one outside of this forum knows what what a mesolow is. NHC would be much better off going with classification in situations like this, so broader public can understand. Technicalities aside, the sensible weather impacts will be the same, so it's minimal risk for them. And at the same time, stop naming cirrus farts out in the middle of the north Atlantic that get sheared apart by day 3.

Looks like a TC developing near OBX on visible. May not earn anything officially, but there will be semblances of tropical storm type conditions later. Expect the unexpected. The major guidance aint bluffin' this time.

Where is this camera set up?

Anyone have a “best ski spot” in western MA, Berkshires they could recommend?

It’s a long shot, but with the barrage of deep troughs moving through the eastern CONUS, *if* TD13 heads towards the yucatan instead of Nicaragua there’s appreciable odds it eventually gets picked up and affects the CONUS. The latest GFS run hints at that possibility (albeit in a very confusing and complicated way). Both the GFS and Euro ops showing a 2 std trough passing through the GOM, at day 6, during TD 13’s closest approach

Tropical downpours. I’m loving the flex of the humidity.

The eastern CONUS is a lot more like November right now vs early October. The reason I mention this, is November tropical climatology is when western Caribbean TC's get picked up by high amplitude troughs. I definitely would watch this one despite current guidance consensus. Said differently, Carribean waves are the disturbances that pose CONUS threats given the current pattern. Storms that are further north are clearly OTS or sheared apart.

Lol. Oh we laugh. But in terms of ground hog general forecasts, models tracking climate sensitive behavior and adaptations would own the CPC’s analysis every year. Evolutionary scale>>synoptic scale. There is so much to learn here. We need less programmers and more philosophers. Yea, for a while it was the opposite, no doubt. Not anymore.

Ian took a while to organize. The western Caribbean is where it all came together. The early guidance was too bullish in the Eastern and central Caribbean. At the same time this is what allowed Ian to make it as far west Florida, given all the persistent deep troughing over the eastern CONUS. Given the pattern you need any developing system to make it west of the northern Bahamas to have any shot of directly impacting the US. A weak system greatly increases these odds, following the low level easterlies.

What’s going to change things in terms of building is a change in gov back-stopping bad decisions. I don’t trust gov to do that by choice; it’s much the opposite. But for the first time in 40+ years inflation is ripping while deficit is worst in our nation’s history and a new hot war with a Great Power in Europe (further straining resources). This combination means stimulus is now stim-u-less, as any major package will come with immediate negative short term impacts for the nation in terms of higher inflation. The big stimulus packages that followed Sandy and Harvey can’t happen today. Many Americans are going to have to look at these natural risks like much of the rest of the world. It’s going to be a very tough lesson for whoever built their life around the previous chapter.

Use IKE. Integrated kinetic energy.

These building codes aren't being sold on the premise of "it will be easier to clean up your destroyed home". That's where we disagree.