jbenedet

50 by 2 p.m.? Snow cover FTL?

Lol ASH up to 56 as of 8:50 a.m.

Suns out. Will be in the 50’s in an hour.

42/36 and breezy. Pack eating combo for overnight conditions. And dews will be rising for another 24 hrs. Only the piles remain by sunrise tomorrow.

MHT up to 42F. Nice day for Feb

I'd be pretty surprised if it doesn't, MHT - South/east. The warm front lifts through around sunrise and moves north/east, unmitigated.

Reggie now showing low 60’s into SNH. Take ‘em up. We torch tomorrow.

Euro has Presidents’ Day well into the 50’s now.

Last day of single digits for a while. Noice.

Lol. Weenies talking about snow cover holding back this steam engine. Torch. Period.

Snow cover will be gone here Wednesday. Warm front timing keeps being pushed forward on guidance. Will hit the low 40’s Wed evening with dews.

Which is kinda what you want - no? I want to see through the aesthetic.

Through Wed much of this will be gone. I think Wed will take care of much of what's left. Just the piles. Trace to 2" upstream nashua area.

Timing is biggest issue right now. I believe it will speed up a bit, flow is very progessive. But you're right if I had to find one criticism for this potential-- it's timing.

Even the Ukie is trending toward a 1045 + Bermuda High. Robust Tropical connection. Torch it.

This is SW/SSW. It's the classic orographic assist up the eastern Apps right up into York ME. @dendrite isn't in as good a spot for this. Snowpack, elevation, longitude, will cap potential in his back yard. Long 60's for the NH Seacoast away from the immediate shore. If I had to pick - Nashua may be good for 70.

I also don't believe the fropa Friday will translate to colder than normal temps. Pacific looks torchy. I think the weekend temps trend higher vs current guidance. More like early spring.

This look is 60's deep into New england pretty easily. Teleconnections; everything. Thursday looks even better than Friday. Locally 70 in spots. Bank on it. Only question is whether records will fall...

With the current guidance advertising the track as OTS or graze, the recent pattern shift, with tendency being AN UL height anomalies over our heads should —all else being equal—help us out significantly in bringing this closer to the coast.

Some areas in NH just north/west of DAW must have received a nasty ice up. Farmington, strafford, Deerfield, area, I’d think. In between DAW and CON basically….any local reports around here? Judging by CON they had > 0.25” ice. Not sure how well it accreted though..

We know. ice?

The surface hp is pressing even more on 12z Nam. Can't see how the location and timing of this press won't have big implications into the favored cold tuck locations.

Sneaky surface high showing up in QC, across guidance. Have to believe this results in a cold tuck in NH, away from the coast. Tough forecast for DAW.

And the GFS now looks the best at H5 after being the last model to catch on. Model chaos, with too many small disturbances in the same region, difficulty resolving which one will amplify. We know—based on our climo—that baroclincity strongly favors shortwaves that amplify along the SE coast. My read is the GFS could use a “climo correction” or “parameterization” in the eastern CONUS. Anyway, significant positive changes on the GFS, albeit coming from a very disorganized state. The latest depiction is clearly worth tracking for SE NH.