jbenedet

Wonky look. Warm core? As much as I like this solution, this doesn't make meteorological sense in January.

I'm guessing that sea eagle will be leaving it's new pad in boothbay Hahbah. Kinda pissed I missed the chance to head up there.

Yea, high amplitude long wave pattern, but very fast flow. +NAO, +AO. We have seen this time and time again translate to a much earlier/faster start time, 12 hrs+ at these lead times.

Yea and it would come in much faster. 12 hrs+. Would be a Friday/Saturday impact, rather than Sat/Sunday

The western Ridge keeps trending further west with time on guidance at around hr 72. An axis over western Washington state without any blocking in eastern Canada is typically a recipe for a cutter or very tucked in track. If the northern stream and southern stream cleanly phase early—around hr 72, this comes much further west than current guidance consensus—there’s plenty of “room” in terms of wave spacing.

Rain, snow, blizzard whatever if this happens on Saturday ice festival at lake Winne I’m going to be pissed. Hoping this becomes a Friday event.

The timing of the southern stream shortwave has worsened significantly over time. Northern stream relative to southern stream keeps speeding up. Makes sense with the AO + and increasing… This has evolved into a clipper with a redevelopment/enhancement near the Gulf of Maine. We know how these work—the earlier/further south the coastal gets going the better. Having the coastal predominate south of the Cape than east of PSM would be a big deal in terms of regional impact. Unlikely, but still good enough odds to monitor. Right now northeast MA to coastal ME is best chances for more than a few inches.

The southern stream won’t just fizzle like that. That’s a potent shortwave. It’s not running into confluence. Fast flow, but not confluence.

In evolution, Tuesday reminds me a lot of Jan 7th. and to a lesser extent the prior storm that hit the mid atlantic. It's the same tenor, really. A northern version of Jan 7th

Didn't realize. You're right. I think it will be more of a Tuesday (25th) event, but whatever, that's the threat. Thanks!

Open a thread for Tuesday. It's all we got.

I like the Tuesday threat. Close enough to evaluate (with seriousness) what current guidance is spitting out - the location and intensity of that H5 shortwave in the southern stream on the GFS looks like a classic case of GFS having to amp that up (along with downstream UL heights) as we move in. I think we see this trend towards southern stream predominant, and less amplification of the northern stream as currently advertised. Terms of scale - I think a a very broad 4-8" (local 5-10") type event if it evolves as I think it will. If everything aligns, I think it's capped at low end SECS potential.

ACY 39/33 on a southwest wind. Down from 43. She’s cut-off. Very cut-off. The CAD is moving in fast. Back to freezing by early afternoon?

Been raining for an hour here, but appears DAW still snow. 10 miles will once again mean all the difference.

That’s a valid point—but won’t be until after midnight….

Stronger storm. seeing a bunch of meso lows south of LI across guidance. As usual, will be interesting to see how much this slows the easterly fetch and quick torch.

It’s Jan 16. The sun sets in 3.5 hours. Temp peaks around 2 p.m. this time of year. 21 high is my bet. dew dropped from -6 to -7.

16/-6 at DAW NWS with 23 for a high there. Ain’t happenin’. 50% odds DAW doesn’t see 20F.

Really difficult forecast for DAW.

-4/-12 at DAW this morning and latest guidance showing mostly rain for Monday. Quite the swing.

And then remember that common misconception, which everyone with some met knowledge likes to repeat: “the upper levels dictate the surface”. But synoptic wave development is a positive feedback mechanism—the upper levels drives the surface and the surface drives the upper levels. If at the surface we have an arctic high anchored UL heights can’t be pumped over our heads and the phase in PA happens southeast of LI or the Gulf of Maine instead.

It's like you almost forgot everything about New England cold tucks in one sentence. Well done.

But the surface HP would not have been stronger, and therefore "more anchored" if SST's were near normal? It's an important factor for eastern new England and especially the coastal plain. But one amongst many. The end.

Now queue up the list of imbeciles who will interpret this as "so you're saying it will never snow in eastern southern New England bc of SST's?!" Of course not-- just more needs to go "right".

Fine at hr 96? I mix often here. Very often. Local climate is 75/25 PSM/DAW She's coming west. Check out the H5 trend in Quebec.