jbenedet
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Everything posted by jbenedet
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May be a case where the GFS SE bias is having an outsized impact on the final solution. It has been further deepening the southern stream shortwave just about every run over the past 5 cycles. Looks like it’s playing catch-up in this regard...
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Roads are a mess around here
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heavy snow, haven’t seen any pellets yet...thinking finish 3-4” based on the radar
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I know most in here don’t like talking about snowcover unless it has to do with Siberian cold, but the snowpack in Quebec, Ontario, New Brunswick and interior NNE is pretty epic right now—-basically our entire CAD region is buried in 2’-4’ snow right now. Have to be cognizant of locally sourced cold, and sturbborn surface HP’s....
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That’s what she said.
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Thinking I manage another 2”-3” in this last band developing in Central NH. It likely will contain the best rates of the storm as I lose the subsidence from the intense banding to the SE.
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The baroclinic zone is draped right along the Coast on all guidance, and the Arctic front trailing behind is oriented SW to NE. This isn’t a suppression pattern. I think there is room for heights to be pumped off the coast, so that this open wave traverses the region pretty tucked in. This is also a case where the heaviest snows are going to be closest to the taint line, so keep that in mind... My first guess is 6-10” for SE NH. Heaviest snowfall from NE MA down to NE CT (8-14”).
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Perhaps a Coastal Storm on March 2nd for SNE????
jbenedet replied to USCAPEWEATHERAF's topic in New England
18z GEFS are juiced. Looks like warning snows for 75% of SNE. SE MA, RI, and extreme SE CT 1” - 1.25” LE. -
Just incredible run to run swings on the major guidance, and I’ve been foolishly riding along on this...Going to axe my previous judgments of the early March threat being a “cutter” and move more into a wait a see mode. One thing is for certain—that PV lobe swinging through Alberta around day 4 will continue to be a major source of uncertainty (model error) going forward.
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I haven’t measured this up against other similar events, but it does look impressive and impactful for a very large swath of the subforum. Your comment may come down to how many pines vs (leafless) deciduous trees a person has in their neighborhood/backyard....
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Yea that’s def when we get closer to the main event ramp up. I guess I’m saying people will start reporting obs and stop mocking this as a non-event shortly after sunrise. I think we’ll get some help from compressional heating before the sun does most of the work. I was just outside moving some furniture and it’s already gusty here. Could also see some low level clouds racing across the sky just above the surface...
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Think this starts to crank in about an hour once the sun comes up and the shallow inversion pops.
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I don’t like the early March threat at all. Hoping/expecting this turns into a bonafied cutter (way west) and maybe then we can get something to develop along the BZ after this cuts off and stacks over Manitoba or western Ontario. It’s a long shot, but I’m afraid that’s all we have with this one right now...End of the month threat looks like congrats Dakota’s. - - EPO - - PNA with a robust shortwave showing up across guidance in the Pacific Northwest. Pretty epic cold dump coming to the western CONUS....
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An okay general idea, but my guess is too low in most areas, and very low in some localized regions. It doesn’t take much at all to gust into the low 40’s imby on a west wind. Thinking the seacoast of NH is one of those areas this will prove far too conservative....
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This is a good baseline for sure, but I’m skeptical of how well this models mesoscale feedbacks. There are other reasons to expect this to outperform - late February (higher sun angle, clear skies, and 850 mb winds peak around 12 pm.)
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Yea really does seem to be a fantastic setup for wind in winter up here. The way the surface front lags signficantly behind the front at 850 is critical. The nearly due west direction should also maximize compressional heating...something we don’t see with stem winding sou’ Easter’s...
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Yea I’m thinking this is widespread 50-60 mph gusts down to the coast...
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6z GEFS and 0z EPS much better than the respective ops for end of next week potential. GEFS continues to be very amplified, while EPS more progressive and flat. Subforum still at a decent middle ground 180 hrs out... All we should hope for at this point....
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Looks like this GFS run brings the goods for the end of the month threat. If not *really* close...
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I suspect this is a case where compressional heating on the Lee side of the apps is what will really help fuel momentum transfer from 850 to the surface.
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3-4” here, no sleet. Probably was closer to 4” before the freezing drizzle moved in, causing some compaction... Roads are a mess.
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H700 to H500 dynamics are weak with this. The warmth looks like it comes in first at 850, not above or below... Appears to me that risk is high that this remains all snow from MA border on north (away from the immediate coast).
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Time to hoist advisories for wedneday night/thurs morning? 12z Euro and 18z NAM looks like a widespread 3-6” deal in NH and ME
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pike north should def wait to throw in the towel Wednesday/thurs. I think trends will be improving going forward with more of a -NAO look over the northeast showing up on guidance going forward, and the main surface reflection trending further south...
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I’m seeing the midweek threat as similar to the 2/12 system—but a colder more suppressed version...
