jbenedet

Northern New England will surely cash in starting off December. All the snow weenies depressed which probably means it’s a great time to take the other side. Pacific is skunked but Sig NAO block means better than climo chances of good snows. The GL cutter midweek looks like a pattern setter. Northern New England will def cash in much better than current guidance is advertising. Troughiness out west will send shortwaves into the confluence over the northeast. Great for ski country.

All this talk by snow weenies wanting the pattern to change. I thought the pattern already changed? Like 15 days ago?

No. That’s not your high. Your high is at midnight. Hartford at 60 as of 9:50 p.m.

Another > +10 day in Mowvember Regional highs: PSM: 58 DAW: 58 PWM: 57

Wow what a beautiful day. Another +10 in the books for Mowvember.

We are so cooked this weekend. Light packin’. T-shirts and sweatshirts. We 60’s.

Great Lakes cutter up for Friday - Sunday. Windows open. Screens in folks.

Canadian geese still grazing in Portsmouth. Yep. Winter is right around the corner folks Grass hasn't even browned in Rochester yet. It's like everything knows it except the modelologists.

Wednesday through Friday AN. Run at Record warmth this weekend. Mowvember continues, after a one week hiatus.

Awesome videos. Nice to see people taking it in stride. Have to love winter around there. Period. It’s November 19th. Sun angle approaching its low. Your snow pack will be around through May. Likely more records to fall, of this type. Guidance signaling another big snow storm day 6. God speed. Not for me; not even close.

Most by geography; not by population. Portland Maine 73

Portsmouth NH 75

OWD already hit 78 as of 12:50. 10/10 day.

Slayin’ records. 75 on tap

Tomorrow looks gorgeous. 70's with dews. Records fall?

Rear view mirror forecasting. Damn those initial conditions and those useless weeklies. Oops Phase 8 --> Phase 5 and 6 next week. The big cold already blowing its load out west. We get the transient remnants. A "cold" front takes us to normal and then we back to +AN. Rain for everyone except the far interior. Mowvember - nicer lawns in Nov than May. SST's in GOM still in mid 50's. Finish +10?

We'll look out 7+, when this happens inside 6 . But Let's move the goal posts and forget those 200 hr GFS phasing solutions showing snow in much of New England from Nicole remnants. 6

You could just post the GEFS at 144 vs the EPS, and tell everyone why you're hugging the GEFS. PS the pacific is going to shit next week.

Looking forward to normal fall temps. Cutters for the win. Some of you guys need to post in the Central US forums. Strange otherwise, seein g all this BN talk. Frost on the lawns got some people excited.

We get close to Normal temps in November this clown celebrates, a cold snap. Been so warm you forgot what your climo is. Guy still staring out 3 weeks, when his weeklies from 2 weeks ago turned to this. Ooops

There was a relatively cool eddy Nicole passed over yesterday evening - 26-27c isotherm. My thinking is this was a big contributor to rapid warming of the convection. And that’s been validated by the big changes today while atmospheric conditions are largely the same.

Already has the look of a high end TS/marginal hurricane 65-75 mph status.

Nicole looks a lot healthier than I expected at this hour. Guidance is going to have to ramp up the intensity forecasts today to regain reality.

I don't get the early recurve scenario - with most major guidance (ex the 6z GFS) showing a sig northern component returning to Nicole's trajectory while the UL trough axis is still over the Rockies. 6z GFS makes the most sense to me (by far). But still think it's slightly too far north across Florida. I don't think we see any notable latitude gains until Nicole is in the Gulf. The whole scenario is evolving for a more impactful evolution-- a second landfall, then up the eastern apps into New England, as it phases and becomes extratropical, begins deepening.

^That's a solid forecast at this hour.