jbenedet

If you’re quantifying intensification by central pressure falls, he’ll likely remain at/near steady state, but if you’re deducing intensification through an increasing area (size) of lower pressure than he will be strengthening. This is my point.

Yea, but largely only aesthetic at this point. Hurricane windfield is enormous and still growing—this looks like a more impactful version of Ike. And it’s quite fitting being that today marks the 10 yr anniversary of Ike’s landfall in SE Texas.

Looking at satellite, Florence appears to be strengthening and in best shape over past 24 hrs. Outflow is healthy in all quadrants, good symmetry and, blossoming of deep convection within CDO. All that said, as I mentioned yesterday Florence appears to be translating most/all of his intensification into greater size, which acts to impede potential increases in windspeed/SLP as the circulation is broadening much more than tightening.

Yes, in this way Florence reminds me of Hurricane Ike (when he was in the Gulf of Mexico). Latent Heat Energy being converted into increasing area rather than pressure falls close to center. Ike was a strong cat 2 before it hit Texas but was comparable to a cat 4/5 in terms of storm surge/coastal flooding

There’s also a syntopic scale gradient wind threat up into the Mid Atlantic due to Florence’s large circulation and 1028 mb HP over ME, causing persistent onshore flow which will also likely produce coastal flooding and heavy rain well away from the center—Eastern VA, Eastern MD, Eastern NC and DE all appear at risk in this regard.

Not making a case, simply underscoring the unknowns regarding the slowdown and stall—how quickly does he decelerate and where exactly does the stall occur?

Possibly. But in my view that positive is reduced in every respect—including the wind— by the increased duration.

12z euro looks disasterous in the way that it slows down dramatically right before making LF and looks to stall at the coast with most of its circulation on land. This is in line with most of the other guidance now. A dramatic slowdown in forward speed right before landfall is being reflected on all major guidance right now. This is concerning to say the least.

12z Euro is really tucked in. Big shift east and north from the 0z run.

The 6z HWRF is a landfall in Oahu in 36 hrs as major.... Largely on its own, with only a few members of EPS hinting at this potential. That said still significant track/intensity uncertainty with Lane over next 48 hr. Part of this, I presume has to do with the development of another weak tropical disturbance to his east. The euro has this disturbance develop into a weak TS and head towards the big island. I would think —all else being equal —-that could cause Lane to track more north, than west. Imo it also helps explain the significant divergence (split) in modeled tracks over the next 24 hr....

I was right in the middle of that tornado warned cell in Dover; it was nasty. Definitely was inside a very weak circulation for a time but don’t think it ever tightened up enough to get classified. No damage in my immediate area but an awesome storm.

I find it a bit odd that the NHC hasn't flagged this system with moderate to high probs for development into a tropical/sub tropical cyclone yet. I'm not sure what it's classifying it as (A Nor' Easter in middle of Summer in the sub tropics???), but there's clearly a Mid Level circulation off the coast of North Carolina based on radar and visible satellite, and the guidance consensus track takes this over SST's that are marginally supportive of maintaining tropical characteristics as it moves north and then northwestward towards the Del Marva...

Door slightly opens for a TC to impact the east coast late next week, as a deep trough is showing up on most guidance moving across the plains, accompanied by a stronger WAR. GEFS are hinting at potential for TC development off the SE coast during that time frame. Just something to watch.

Yea. There was also another Nor Easter last year where the SLP ran over SE Mass but dumped widespread 30”+ in Upstate NY, near Binghamton area. That was due to a similar situarion as this with the mid level tracks being displaced well to the west.

Yea unless you live at the base of a mountain. Tell me about it.

Careful you’re starting to sound like a

Yea this is incredible. More than the past two seasons combined I’d say...

AWT. That’s awesome. Band has been fun up here but def not the epic rates you’re seeing in eastern MA. I think Nashua NH area got in the best of it as well.

Awesome. We salute you.

What did you just pick up in the past hr? 5”?

Yea well I guess by that if you take 5 hrs and avg 2.4/hr you’re at a foot. Not quite sure why it’s unreasonable given the context. Coastal MA has a lot of catching up to do in term of those euro qpf totals. Just sayin’ We’ll see...

There’s another band developing in behind it. Also 1-3 is kind of a wide range —no? 40 dbz is 4”+ type calibur given the context I would think...

Nice. BOS is good for snow through 11 pm and this looks like heavy snow to the end.

Call me a weenie, if you want but I think BOS will tack on close to a foot from that band. It’s tightening up and will have some epic rates associated with it... perfect timing too in terms of limiting ISR and BL impacts...

I like those numbers. What were you doing in NY?