jbenedet

Looks to be hugging the western side of the cone since the 5a.m. update, but that’s just by eye. The track is still North or ever so slightly west of north. Not seeing an East component yet.

Highly Asymmetrical appearance; highly asymmetrical impacts. You could be 25 miles west of the center and be experiencing much better weather than those who are 150 miles to the east. For all the disorganization Elsa is maximizing impact by maintaining the center off shore allowing tropical storm impacts to affect the entire west coast of Fla. The eastern side is also aligned with the background flow, adding to the surface wind-speeds.

Today will be better than expected outside of East Maine. We are all drying out. It’s got a 70+ feel even up here

I’d say eastern SNE is very much in the game. I’m not seeing a deep enough trough to make it interesting for points further north and west.

The impediments regarding fast forward speed and significant land interaction —hispaniola, and Cuba have been greatly reduced. And now Elsa is over the warmest SST’s in the Caribbean. This is still a very interesting forecast. Relative to most recent guidance, surprises to the upside in terms of intensity are far more likely than the opposite...

Usually this is capped by conditional instability—when there’s a deep UL trough overhead. You reach the upper limit and pay for it in terms of clouds and showers later. It’s nature’s quid pro quo.

Weaker storm, not vertically stacked means a much further west track, as the low level easterly flow predominates. My initial thoughts on an earlier recurve were wrong despite the intense trough over the eastern CONUS for this reason. The GEFS is illustrating this quite well now. I think risk is now tilted in favor that Elsa ends up west of the current NHC cone. And that would translate to much less land interaction with Cuba and a lot more time over open water in the GOM. And we all know what that means in terms of vigilance. A weaker storm over the next few days could mean a much stronger storm in the end.

This really is a warmer version of Memorial Day wknd. I’d be seriously enjoying these rainy cool breaks if not for the terrible timing...

My guess is the first trough misses but influences a more northerly track. At that point it depends if a ridge builds over the top of it, or another deep trough comes in first and sends it OTS. Landfall discussions are pointless at this juncture. I’m just saying the initial recurve happens earlier and makes it an east coast threat instead of a west coast FLA., GOM, threat.

My guess is this ends up much further east. SE coast threat. Big trough over the east—much earlier recurve. Trough will miss but influence a more northward track than current guidance.

Yea I see that. That is my base case but CPC certainly seeing something quite different. Hedge accordingly.

I’m just hoping for clouds at this point...

I can’t stand this weather. It’s not even July yet and I if I had to guess I’d say I have seen 10+ days of 90+ highs and 70+ lows already this year. We are going to get a wonderful break but it’s certainly far from over. The low temps have consistently been running well above normal. A 70+ low in summer is feeling quite normal, expectations wise, unfortunately.

Yea. For Death Valley.

0z Euro is alone vs GFS Ukie and Canadian. And yesterday’s 12z euro looked a lot like what the rest of global guidance is showing... It’s a high confidence bet still but the models couldn’t make it too easy for us...

Just finished walking the dog. Very steamy still. My guess is temps don’t fall much at all from here, given some clouds, light wind...and dews rising slightly into tomorrow morning. 78 for a low tomorrow morning a.m. in Dover, if I had to throw something out there.., What are the record high low temps...?

Man up. Winter season is sooo much more exhausting than this. Heat kills many more Americans per yr than TC’s. Probably should focus on the heat if you’re feeling overloaded by “hype “...

“WAR strength”. Heh. That’s an unequivocal —NAO next weekend.

Sure, What are the limiting factors while it is over water? There.

Dry air entrainment only limiting factor, and that will be a function of how organized the circulation becomes. If it tightens up here, it could well create a moisture pocket, and continue to quickly organize. As you noted shear itself is low—modest structural organization will go a long way in this case.

The ones with no recurve/trough interaction up through landfall —like this one—are the most dangerous in this respect. Imo. ...

For the 4th weekend, persistence bet is the worst of it ends up in SNE and Northern Mid Atlantic. Another “best in Maine” opportunity. Sig -NAO look. The wet get wetter and the dry get dryer.

A warmer version of this past Memorial Day weekend.

The model crack smoking started out west, and it’s manifesting in real time. The latest GFS runs in the context of the craziness out west makes a lot of sense actually...The yin and the yang. A highly anomalous UL ridge out west...begets a highly anomalous UL trough in the East? Physical equations. Mother Nature finding a way to amplify baroclinic waves with summer climo and temperatures across the CONUS by breaking physical limitations out west significantly to the up side...

Versus one year ago. Worse in NNE, much better in SNE.