jbenedet

The southern stream won’t just fizzle like that. That’s a potent shortwave. It’s not running into confluence. Fast flow, but not confluence.

In evolution, Tuesday reminds me a lot of Jan 7th. and to a lesser extent the prior storm that hit the mid atlantic. It's the same tenor, really. A northern version of Jan 7th

Didn't realize. You're right. I think it will be more of a Tuesday (25th) event, but whatever, that's the threat. Thanks!

Open a thread for Tuesday. It's all we got.

I like the Tuesday threat. Close enough to evaluate (with seriousness) what current guidance is spitting out - the location and intensity of that H5 shortwave in the southern stream on the GFS looks like a classic case of GFS having to amp that up (along with downstream UL heights) as we move in. I think we see this trend towards southern stream predominant, and less amplification of the northern stream as currently advertised. Terms of scale - I think a a very broad 4-8" (local 5-10") type event if it evolves as I think it will. If everything aligns, I think it's capped at low end SECS potential.

ACY 39/33 on a southwest wind. Down from 43. She’s cut-off. Very cut-off. The CAD is moving in fast. Back to freezing by early afternoon?

Been raining for an hour here, but appears DAW still snow. 10 miles will once again mean all the difference.

That’s a valid point—but won’t be until after midnight….

Stronger storm. seeing a bunch of meso lows south of LI across guidance. As usual, will be interesting to see how much this slows the easterly fetch and quick torch.

It’s Jan 16. The sun sets in 3.5 hours. Temp peaks around 2 p.m. this time of year. 21 high is my bet. dew dropped from -6 to -7.

16/-6 at DAW NWS with 23 for a high there. Ain’t happenin’. 50% odds DAW doesn’t see 20F.

Really difficult forecast for DAW.

-4/-12 at DAW this morning and latest guidance showing mostly rain for Monday. Quite the swing.

And then remember that common misconception, which everyone with some met knowledge likes to repeat: “the upper levels dictate the surface”. But synoptic wave development is a positive feedback mechanism—the upper levels drives the surface and the surface drives the upper levels. If at the surface we have an arctic high anchored UL heights can’t be pumped over our heads and the phase in PA happens southeast of LI or the Gulf of Maine instead.

It's like you almost forgot everything about New England cold tucks in one sentence. Well done.

But the surface HP would not have been stronger, and therefore "more anchored" if SST's were near normal? It's an important factor for eastern new England and especially the coastal plain. But one amongst many. The end.

Now queue up the list of imbeciles who will interpret this as "so you're saying it will never snow in eastern southern New England bc of SST's?!" Of course not-- just more needs to go "right".

Fine at hr 96? I mix often here. Very often. Local climate is 75/25 PSM/DAW She's coming west. Check out the H5 trend in Quebec.

That’s my thinking as well. SLP ends up going over PSM or MHT then ENE. Great storm Berks and most of interior NNE.

Ya you got me alright. Guy, so butt hurt, forgot what my point even was. Or maybe you still cannot comprehend it? “It’s *impossible* for coastal New England to get measurable snow bc of ++SST anomalies is the GOM” Is this what you’re trying to say I said? I’m surprised you didn’t pick a clown map in Colorado.

Makes sense for your area, with the elevation and away from the coast. Cutters would do a lot more damage than a persistently easterly fetch off the relatively warm Gulf of Maine. Not here.

That was a good one. I still think this tops it though. There’s no way to tell for sure but my area had a shit ton of ice within the 4-6” snowpack that was here. Probably another 0.5” LE. It was a rock solid base that was not in any way captured by the volume of snow on the ground.

It’s all relative of course. Under a foot all the way up there this time of the year is weak. You have deep winter climo so you’ll be fine going forward, regardless of the pattern. My comment was more about what’s transpired year to date.

Snowpack gone. The most efficient pack-eater I’ve seen this area, this time of the year. Good news is it’s been replaced by grass—green grass. So could be worse. Looks and feels like late March. Not a shock considering it’s looked and felt like this since Mowvember with very few exceptions. Weenies rather stay glued to comp monitors and models rather than take a walk outside and see what Mother Nature is saying.

Record highs in early Jan. Sucks. But what can you do. Troll land still recovering from that .05” ice storm?