jbenedet

Getting light to mod OES right now. Experienced it on my ride from exeter up to Dover. With temps in mid 30’s nothing really accumulating at the moment.

Probably gets kicked east after 24. Not seeing the changes at H5 needed to expect otherwise...

The circulation is enormous with this - it reminds me a bit of a much further east version of the blizzard last year that ran over SE MA but buried upstate NY with 30-40". Can't remember which one it was specifically.

Yes. This. Once the storm stacks it's very asymmetrical with most of the circulation on the west side... Misleading to follow 850 to surface depiction for sensible weather impacts.. This is also why we're seeing model qpf output increase with latitude --- as the system stacks, circulation will expand hundreds of miles to the west, and lots of UL vorticity to tap into with crashing heights...

I think this is another case where the compromise is the euro is too far east early on but has best handle on the east kick later on.

This looks like a ~100 - 200 mile east and more amped version of Thursday's storm. Trough interaction with the cut-off lows early on at H5 and kick east look similar. And I think we will have another weenie band out west when this gets captured at H5. The H5 cut-off low hanging back west shows another long duration event for NNE. The snowfall amounts could be broadly MECS level if this is the case with this bc BL temps will support much better ratios and better accums throughout; especially into Wednesday as the storm weakens but light to moderate snows persist throughout NNE.

Yea this run should be a nuke for many.

AWT

GEFS anyone? Wow. No complaints. Has a handful of 960-970 members over the cape.

Concerning. But it's still early. Trends were definitely significantly west today, but that's also coming from a consensus that was well ots. Really want to see more trends west on the euro/EPS before confidence can increase in regards to a potential LF. We're in that "in-between state" if you will, since we just lost a lot of confidence in the ots track... Now it's low confidence in both outcomes. Just caution for now...

18z GEFS says Carolina's, especially North Carolina, needs to watch Maria closely... Only out to hr 60, but can already tell this will be west of 12z... Still a lot of time though, we're still looking at ~5 days before any potential LF....

Jose is a large weakening vort. The UL vort is suffficient to induce forcing and cause convection for the time being until this energy is dissipated, but make no mistake, despite the proximity to the Gulf Stream there isn't a baroclinic zone in the vicinity of Jose. Your analogy to a cut off low, would also indicate the atmosphere is equivalent barotropic. As I stated previously, neither Mid Latitude cyclone dynamics nor tropical forcing is being maintained right now. Jose is a rapidly weakening system, despite his misleading satellite appearance.

Not commenting on exact track of Maria, I would wager that the euro/gfs are maintaining Jose's intensity for too long given his track and no mechanism to maintain tropical or subtropical characetistics whatsoever. The latest guidance has him sitting over low 60F SST's and meandering over his own wake, which should only act to increase his rate of weakening. It would be surprising to see Jose as anything more than a Startus swirl by this time tomorrow...

I think current guidance has the general theme with Maria's track correct. I think this will be a much more typical track up the east coast than what we are seeing with Jose. The flow off the east coast will be faster, and there will be less blocking. Forecast wise, this is all about Maria's interaction with the trough. If the trough is flat and/or positively tilted she's likely ots... The blocking over the northwest Atlantic will weaken considerably as Maria makes her way to the subtropics, and the trough eventually picks her up before she has too long to meander off the coast. Teleconnection wise we want to watch the indices for the PNA and AO. Current forecasts indicate a +PNA and -AO, around the time that Maria is entering the subtropics. This teleconnection combination can act to enhance mid-latitude cyclone development, further amplifying the long wave trough upon its approach to Maria...

Odd that the GFS wants to hold back that shortwave over the SW, so the whole longwave trough becomes misaligned. That likely corrects towards the 12z euro's depiction at hr 192... I guess it was already a step toward the euro considering the 12z gfs cut off that shortwave, whereas this run did not...

The key is that trough moving across the Rockies around hr 162. It certainly is deep enough to pull Maria inland rather than push her ots. The main issue I'm seeing now on the GFS is timing.

Irma was a good table setter for widespread record river flooding...

We can talk about weakening from wind speeds all we want, but to me, on satellite it just looks like she grew in size and lost a bit of that buzz saw look she had yesterday evening. Her coc is still robust and encapsulated by a large, symmetrical CDO, with copious deep convection. This 10 mb rise isn't going to lessen impact imo -- you lose 20 mph in max wind speed, but add severity to the surge and especially flooding as a result of heavy rainfall. Choose your poison--she looks quite healthy right now considering hours of mountainous land interaction leading up to LF.

The ridging over the western Atlantic and eastern CONUS, ex Jose is just all-around stronger this run.

Speed relative to Maria really isn't the issue. As modeled it's a kicker bc it's too progressive. But that can and likely will change. If that trough is deeper and/or goes negative it won't act as a kicker. Watch that PNA ridge that's now showing up around hr 198.

No. For an east coast LF want to see Jose (remnants?) move west, into the coast, irrespective of intensity, so the weak trough is collocated with the east coast.

But where does he create a break in the ridge? See 12z Euro. She's going to make landfall or come very close, this run. The 12z Ukie only goes out to 144 hr, but you can forsee a similar outcome to the 12z euro out 192 hr.

That's a good point. But what's the usual cyclone track? I see an approach heading due west or due north as ideal for San Juan. I could be wrong but the NHC's forecast track seems like a worst case scenario; if not damn close.

What's quite a bit of land? 30 miles? I think it's a factor, but not nearly as much as you're indicating, considering geography alone. Taking the current NHC's track verbatim San Juan will see hurricane force winds before she even makes landfall. The eye wall would affect San Juan within an hour of LF.

Yea. That's a good point.