jbenedet
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Everything posted by jbenedet
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“Looking under the hood”
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I’m seeing some early signs that Henri is finally organizing around ONE center of circulation. He’s got a lot of work to do, but this very disheveled appearance looks like a “shedding” of the competing MLC, LLC state and evolution into a structure that is vertically stacked. Time is the limiting factor now.
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To be fair, this recurve scenario close to landfall means uncertainty is quite high, at very short lead times. This is just a general rule of thumb. Accuracy goes up once new forward velocity attained. What it implies here is a capture (phase). When does that happen and to what degree? It’s a very complex interaction, unfortunately.
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I like the NHC’s track. Risk vs guidance is still skewed west—the recent trends East have been due to much less (minimal) phasing with the UL trough, and not less ridging to the east. The former is a much more uncertain —error prone—aspect of the forecast.
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I haven’t. But I’m intrigued. Are there local ferries out of Mystic?
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I’m really just sayin’ same guy has made same comment about rocks on his beach 4 times in past 48 hrs.
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No one cares about your goddamn rocks, guy.
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This is going to be an extremely difficult forecast at very short lead times. Model guidance showing that second recurve west beginning right as Henri is closest to land...
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GFS Going to hook west into central LI me thinks
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As a benefit will see how much was (not) learned post Sandy. A microcosm of our macroeconomic system
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Winds are never the focal point for these in general, especially up here. Storm surge, coastal flooding and heavy rainfall.
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GFS also now showing an expansion of wind field upon closest approach—alluding to UL assist/phasing.
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that is the biggest risk up there imo
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Put on your New England climo hat. i think some form of hybridization occurs but “how much”? Mostly tropical, slightly ET? 50/50? My guess is more the former.
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Also we judge hurricane category by wind speed—which doesn’t directly translate to surface pressure falls (min pressure) IF the radius is expanding. The forecast model for intensity based on wind speed doesn’t tell us nearly enough for a TC at 40N
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How well will hurricane models resolve this? I would think the globals showing this evolution more reliable than a tropical model that simply shows a more westward track.
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Every one of those that hook west involves some form of ET transition. Those are the most impactful by far. Do not slow down until after landfall. Less time over cool waters plus UL assist—stronger storm. Dangerous to have another recurve so close to land and a broadly densely populated area. Forecast error highest in the vicinity of recurve. Could greatly limit lead time for accurate warnings.
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Go long blocking, phase and tug west.
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The 0z Ukie has a 1020 mb high anchored over New Brunswick from hrs 42 to 72.
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The most impactful storms up here are due to significant HP systems—causing synoptic scale pressure gradient winds, slow down, and phasing with upper levels before leaving the region. Everyone focuses on the storm, itself. Look at the HP. It doesn’t have a path east, until it goes west.
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At least not yet as per model consensus. But i’d be hedging strongly in favor of a sharper trough given the significant -NAO. I think a tug west, phase, stall/meander 12-24 hr eject ENE, makes most sense.
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6z HMON coming in A LOT stronger vs 0z through 36 hrs. Looks like a cat 2 by that hr.
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Intensity aside, the UKie tug west via capture makes a lot more sense to me physically, vs a GFS track that takes it into ME virtually unimpeded. There is HP building into northern ME and NS during that time frame. There will certainly be some form of ET transition given climo and UL trough interaction...
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already at 998, deeper than the 12z euro has it at 12z tomorrow
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Exactly. Almost as if the next 24 hrs will determine the final outcome. Latest coordinates appear like the south/west camp is winning...at least so far.
