jbenedet

Large increase of drought conditions in NH and Maine. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx

In terms of a tropical threat—the Gulf Stream where this disturbance currently is, is certainly warm enough. The issue I see, especially out 12+ hrs is dry air. Does still look like it will be an important pc of Friday’s weather forecast though...

Probably going to end up with 0.25” for today and yesterday, combined. Now back to a stretch of fair weather.

Teleconnection wise this could be transient. Looks like the WAR flexes over very short term and then we’re back in a -NAO ish regime. MJO phase 1 aligns similarly.

Looks like persistence this week. Largely dry fropa in northern and eastern areas followed by Canadian airmass.

If NNE doesn’t cash in on appreciable rain the next 2 days, drought conditions going to jump this week. Starting to see shades of drought in the vegetation now, even in southern most areas.

GFS/GEFS hinting at tropical development off the SE Coast around day 4, and surface HP precluding a quick escape East. Not much of a signal but it’s late June in New England and the summer doldrums...so..we watch....

0.5” - 0.6”for DAW and PSM in 3 days. Points ~50 miles north probably ended up with half of that and surface HP is once again, overhead.

Yea and west. This really effin’ died as it moved East. I’ll be happy with 0.2” at this point.

That helps explain what I’m seeing in the local rivers lakes and streams down here near the coast. Vegetation is green but the rivers, lakes and streams are indicating closer to severe drought conditions.

There’s something to be said of this heat and how it contributes to the real long term drought conditions in terms of rivers/lakes/ponds/streams. I live adjacent to a cove that’s overflow from the cocheco river. This cove looks like it’s at risk of turning into a canyon and yet we’re in a mild drought. Neighbor who has been here since 2013 said he’s never seen it this low. I believe him. How many will be losing their river front views?...Subtle and a real medium term risk...

Pretty damn impressive heat for late spring.

I DGAF about futures or 1hr/1 day whatever. Algos will whipsaw whichever way over that time frame to throw off trend followers and dumb money. This news of the fed turn tilts everything back in favor of bears now. That’s all you need to know.

“No news” Cmon. This is the most important bearish event for US equities since March 2020. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/fed-to-sell-corporate-bond-holdings-purchased-during-pandemic-2021-06-02

My take: Some time late Saturday night the “warm” front will press northwest of southeast coast as the SE ridge builds and that will set the stage for round two. I say “warm” because it’s the difference of 60’s and low 70’s with dews vs 40’s and low 50’s and dewless...Not warm but relatively...yes... That will set the stage for the tropical —like deluge Sunday pm . Compact Quick hitter, and Monday looks good. 70’s, sunny and dry for most.

The euro may not be spelling it out yet but you don’t get broad 3”-6” qpf without a tropical connection. That’s the signal.

Those T 850’s have been getting much warmer run to run Sat and Sunday along the coast. I think we see the temp rise all day Saturday through Sunday in coastal sections

Pretty good indication on guidance that the SE ridge is going to flex Saturday pm into Sunday. Maybe eastern sections can warm sector before the next round of rain. Don’t think it would take too much to get round 2 to cut west into PA...

The part two system looking more like a very weak subtropical/tropical disturbance. I think we’re looking at a tropical airmass with this one—dewy feel... At least we’ll get that... taking anything “summer” I can get at this point.

The unofficial start of summer looks like early spring. Current guidance is pretty much the worst weather you can get for this part of the world around Memorial Day weekend. Impressive. Glass half full— it can’t get worse? I think there will be a window of nice (but cool) weather somewhere late Saturday into a chunk of Sunday but the guidance has also done a great job of spreading out the misery so far. Looks like two distinct systems—SNE gets the worst of round one (Friday/early Sat) and eastern New England especially into Maine gets the worst of round 2 (late Sunday into Monday). The high confidence forecast remains: unsettled and below normal Friday to Monday.

beaching it today ahead of the front. Front eta 2pm at Rye. Sweatshirts and sweatpants for Memorial Day weekend.

Memorial Day Weekend looking a lot more like Easter weekend on guidance. Euro conceding to the much colder and wetter gfs. Big changes needed to turn that around.

The exceptional drought out west is most impressive for the fact that it’s worsening while an UL trough is anchored over that part of the CONUS. They’re in terrible shape now given seasonality...

Few hundred feet is like 40 miles of latitude. When you go from Portsmouth NH, to the top of MT Washington, it’s like traveling 1500 miles in terms of climate zones and you can do it all in ~3 hrs.

Ouch. Not familiar at all with records out there, but if this verified must be close to one... PA/NY