jbenedet

And to better illustrate…what will be the gradual capitulation on the mesos…

Cool. Now everyone does. You made a funny. You’re welcome.

Taint: the area between the testicles or vulva and the anus; the perineum.

This surface high. February 4. Deep packs. It’s a lot colder than this NAM run. Bank on it. Cold tuck to Philly

It’s an open wave— you don’t want a weaker southern stream unless you’re in the mid Atlantic. An open wave means you don’t have to worry about mid level warmth with a strong well positioned surface high. A sig event here is strong tropical connection meets arctic high. The surface high looks great. Keep that trend going..

I believe this wound up vertically stacking in the central Gulf Of Maine and got down to 965. This ended up deeper and more west of yesterday’s guidance but east and weaker of the big runs being advertised the day before. The big totals in Delaware, New Jersey and Long Island, indicates to me that the early H5 close off was real, but the surface kicked NE and didn’t stack until in the GOM. The spread out timing between closing off and capture lead to a broader circulation but a weaker storm (min surface pressure), but sig snows and wind over a larger area.

Yea it’s blizzard criteria here right now.

It’s been a lot better than that reflects though. Not sure why. It’s close to heavy here. PSM has to be cashing in. Maybe the wind is sending those flakes further south and west (beneath the beam)?

Just had a gust that had to be near 50. Awesome.

Portsmouth NH and the NH shore will bust high. I might suck subsidence on that killer band. Gonna be close for my backyard.

NESIS doesn’t factor wind and cold, and this storm is a top contender in this regard. I’ll def remember it for these qualities alone.

Gloucester the regional jack?

Cape and island looking at high risk of dry slot. NWS could bust there—latest map looks solid otherwise. But that’s of course good news for the areas northwest looking to share in the best banding…

This one is unusual in that the mid levels closing off (timing) and tracks were always great for the interior but the surface track worsened. You guys will still get a good storm out of this bc of the former. It doesn’t help either that your climo raises the bar for what is a big snowstorm event. My big take home is that if the flow is fast off the east coast without blocking, sell the clean phase. At the end of the day I think a ++NAO bit us again. Not terribly, but enough to reduce this to best storm of the year, from best in 10 or 20.

Seeing best push west in NH and ME. I think the best bands can make it to Concord/Winne given the mid level track. West of there, not more than a few inches, generally.

Think one could have done better to head to the beach and stare at the sky and ocean and count seagulls for 10 minutes to figure this forecast than to watch today’s model runs. Technology can be regressive folks.

Up and in.

H5 keeps improving, the surface is following but much less than the Upper levels indicate.

Seeing H5 start to close at hr 24 now. Earlier vs 6z

It’s after hr 12 where we lose that positive trend due to the surface low displacement. Let’s see if we shake that finally. edit: def slight improvement all around at hr18. Good to see.

You can definitely see the convective feedback on the HRRR and how it want to collocate the best surface pressure falls with the explosive convection. Normally we’d say toss, but guidance is all latching onto this and maintaining a surface low to the east under it. The latest HRRR run is showing improvement in this regard, however.

Where's the obs thread? solid radar returns in SNE.

Def not. But can’t ignore latest outputs. To me confidence increasing for >12” snows in mid Atlantic while our uncertainty is increasing, especially in NNE. The mid Atlantic less affected by the east low bc they’re cashing in before it happens. They’re also benefiting from the better H5 trough intensity that’s happening early on..,hr 15 or so. Dual trends of sorts. Better earlier, worse later. Curious for sure…but not unlikely per the consistent guidance.

Yea I mean the biggest impact is that we shed some of the rapid deepening early on —after hr 15 or so. Positive feedback is slowed, and therefore the H5 occlusion slows. It’s odd. Early on shows the trough going negative sooner, but then stymied by the “tropical low” wanting to kick east—misaligning the deepening and surface pressure falls.

Having much more of that DC to Boston snowstorm look now.