jbenedet

For Tuesday, Euro is trending 2 steps forward 1 step back, but it’s there nonetheless, just more ambiguous. 12z EPS shows significant threat still very much on the table imo.

I disagree. It’s already close for eastern areas. Trend has also been favorable. 72 hrs is plenty of time.

I’d gladly take a whiff on Sunday to see what Tuesday’s wave can do with less interference. Tuesday has big potential imo; Sunday moderate at best.

Not worried about that as much as I am the lead wave (Sunday) intensifying to the point that it will dampen heights behind it...Small risk, but it’s an important one...

NAM for Tues is of course OTL. 12z GFS is zoning in on the “right” evolution imo.

I think Tuesday has the look of a (surprise) significant snow potential. Flow is slow—looks Miller B-esque. Cyclogenesis begin south of LI —just need to see more blocking on guidance which looks easily attainable given -NAO/-AO.

Seems like Euro suffering from its “bury shortwaves in the SW” bias, given nature of this setup and big differences at H5 b/w it and the GFS early on. Either way longwave pattern does not look conducive to a wintry event for 90% of us. In terms of personal preferences, I’m excited for a big storm (rain or snow), which I still think is on the table...

Of course. I just pointed it out bc of the significant disparity b/w surface and mid levels. Night and day.

Surface evolution still anticlimactic—but H500, screams potential. Good spot at day 6/7. I’ll take.

Wrt snow, yes I agree. I’m just excited about big storm potential —rain or snow.

Next Tuesday looking much better. Starting to get excited about that one, seeing the huge improvements of the N stream and S stream shortwaves out to hr 120 over the past few runs....

Longwave pattern better but flow faster. Concern with that is too progressive for a late bloomer...Obviously much more uncertainty with Tuesday but would want to see shortwave trend much stronger in coming days or will write off a big event. To me, Friday is a wind/rain T-storm (for SNE) for most. Looks like a case where coastal isn’t pressed southeast until gets into significant climo CAD areas—Whites of NH and interior ME. Good back end snows for whites, northern greens, and interior ME probably. That’s my first guess anyway...

Thinking most will be on the warm side of Friday’s event. Likely ends up well west with -PNA, save far interior and Maine.

High wind watch issued for cape and islands and north shore MA. 60 mph wind gusts expected.

True. Setup was better. But we do have a a Full moon and October SST’s vs March. SST’s are still quite warm (55-60F), so I think mixing down the 50+ mph gusts won’t be an issue along the coast where fetch is predominately easterly.

I haven’t taken a detailed look at this event, but in general it reminds me a lot lof March 12/13 2010. Not sure how that storm was in New England but that was the worst winds in a Nor’Easter that I’ve ever experienced while I was living on Long Island. Widespread outages and gusts from central NJ to south shore of LI in the 50 to 70 mph range.

Odd to see the 12z EPS with more or less same intensity SLP as the Euro op and GFS op at 96 hr. Imo that’s a red flag the ops are too weak given the overall set up. AO and NAO quite favorable heading into the event for a highly anomalous storm system. I think we’ll see some trends back towards the solutions we saw a few days back. Expecting some sort of middle ground solution to verify—slower track along the east coast to allow better phase interaction with PV dropping in through the Plains. Also worth noting the HP over New Brunswick has been trending stronger for many runs now...

GFS looks warm core up to 38N. Given the tropical origins of this and being in latter half of Hurricane season, I’m not anticipating a run-of-the-mill Nor’ Easter type outcome. Will be interesting to see what the SLP looks like when it makes its way into the Gulf.

What surprises me most is I don’t see many talking about the moderate to major coastal flooding expected all the way up to MD. That’s incredible given that center of Florence is over 300 miles from these locations in the Mid Atlantic. We’re looking at over 500 miles of coastline with moderate to locally major coastal flooding. This and the prolific rainfall will be Florence’s legacy. https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/forecasts.php?wfo=AKQ https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=VAZ524&warncounty=VAC700&firewxzone=VAZ524&local_place1=2 Miles WNW Newport News / Williamsburg Intl Airport VA&product1=Coastal+Flood+Warning&lat=37.1547&lon=-76.5391

Slows the rate of weakening dramatically. 0z Euro shows a minimal cane down to Eastern SC, through tomorrow a.m.

Will Florence make “landfall” if the coast is underwater by the time he gets there?

Yes. Always is. Worth noting that GFS and Hwrf trended towards the Euro op idea of paralleling the coast. That track —in general—is gaining credibility that’s all that can be said right now. Hopefully EPS narrows the posts through hr 48.

Yea. This should be very concerning bc this track really maximizes impact by slowing the rate of weakening while continuing to have enough of circulation offshore to hit 100’s of miles of coastline with significant (cat 3+) storm surge.

I’d be very surprised if 12z euro doesn’t have Florence parallel the coast based on this look out to hr 24 with a 1026 hp pressing south out of NNE.

GFS just took a step towards the 0z euro track that parallels the coast of SC.