jbenedet

MJO phase 8. Significant and persistent —NAO. Must be mid April.

Depends on where you are, specifically. ASH, MHT did hit 60 yesterday. Even DAW managed 58. Not a bad day at all. Today and tomorrow look great actually... So far, my neck of the woods is likely running slightly AN for the month of April.

Today looks like a over-performer temp wise. I think 60 is doable around here.

All rain in Dover NH 38. Not even a mangled flake. 50/50 rain/snow into Rochester NH, 36F. Everything greening up around here.

A lot of snow reaching the ground. How much accumulating...? Accumulation rate vs melting rate. Seems it would be easy enough to model this...but we’re left to guessing. I see temps broadly at surface 34-36 even at the height of it... This is why NWS snowfall forecast maps and model qpf is still world’s apart at go time.

Thursday/Friday going to soak all of us. I’m thinking I’ll be measuring rain in inches in my backyard. Berks/southern greens west snow chances. Still thinking northwest Jersey, northeast PA up to Albany is the most interesting for snow Thursday night.

The Thursday/Friday wintry appeal is a northern mid Atlantic and Upstate NY story. Everyone talking persistence but forgetting this aspect of it? SNE low levels flooded with April Atlantic air... At the same time, Bangor ME will be near 60...

To be sure, conditions well north of the BD can be quite pleasant this time of the year, as we move into mid April. Probably stating the obvious but it’s the vicinity where these stall/meander that we all should fear and that looks like the Northern Mid Atlantic. If this was a month ago, it would be quite a different story—a classic case of “what a difference a month makes”. Monday to Wed will probably register near normal and nice by early spring standards for most; with better weather—relative to climo— north/east.

Saturday looks great. Then nasty back door through Sunday morning. This will push into mid Atlantic subsequent days. Better weather in subforum further north/east, Monday through Wednesday.

Planted first pods into the garden beds this morning. Started these 9 days ago, but Peas and green beans couldn’t wait anymore. Thinking nights will stay mid to upper 30’s + from here on out. This next month could be great for growing if the nights cooperate as I expect....

I have worked in US manufacturing for over 10 years — over half of those years were spent in quality control, pharma R&D and performing high level quality investigations at a top biologics manufacturer. It goes without saying that all vaccines are not equal. This joke is on you. Cheers.

What will be widely accepted as fact first?The vaccine “is not effective against new strains which are now more widespread. New Vaccine roll-out needed...new restrictions/restrictions remain in place.” Or “short to long term side effects of an (experimental) vaccine are worse than the direct risks from the virus itself —to low risk/healthy individuals. I’ll wait.

Yea give it time. Let guidance digest what the modeled teleconnections are showing. back doors heading to ACY — Closer to Nova Scotia and New Brunswick you are, the better.

Seems there’s always some hell to pay. If we’re going to -NAO in early spring, make it big. That typically means the consistent dank/misery mist is sent to the mid Atlantic and we are about average with surface HP overhead. “Best in Maine“ has been a recurring theme in past few April’s... That’s my bet at the moment. Better weather north.

Nothing to rely on for the day 8 threat other than model guidance. It’s spring, tele’s are poor but are losing all reliability. There’s not much to like about this potential other than it being advertised on all major guidance and this disturbance following closely in the footsteps of a different disturbance which greatly reduces chances of a cutter-type evolution. As always timing is everything. But maybe that’s all this one needs—perfect timing? Yea take that with a grain of salt.... FWIW the ukie at hr 144 looks a lot like the 12z GFS at same hour so we’d get a similar outcome. For now, it’s something to watch with limited interest in an otherwise boring period....

Homes near the beach are overrated north of the subtropics. Vacation home? Absolutely. Primary residence? No thanks.

I think Sunday will be the warm day, ahead of the next system. Expecting 50’s even up here...

Classic tuck AWT, but didn’t mean much in terms of impact. We rot.

We had some freezing mix earlier but all snow right now and coming down moderately.

Yea. Probably.

The kink south to the surface warm front is likely severely under-modeled. Cold Air damming and ageo flow along the Apps—this looks like a classic example down to the mid Atlantic. At the margin this will likely have important implications and cause the surface low to travel southeast of I90. And how this feeds into the potential development of a mesolow near 40N, mitigating easterly fetch, we could still be looking at cold surprises down to I95. But this latter points seems far less likely at the moment, outside of persistence factors—climo, snowpack etc... A surface low track halfway between I90 and I95 —or thereabouts—is my best guess at the moment...Hedging colder than guidance...

I’m with you. Away from the coast I just don’t see surface temps moving up at all from Monday night lows. Are sig icing events ever forecasted accurately? Serious question—even the recent event in the Pacific Northwest caught everyone off guard. I feel like the less it’s anticipated the more likely it’s to happen with these things. The nature of it I suppose: an intersection of multiple marginal conditions...and an atmosphere that achieves a prolonged period of “steady state”. The opposite of dynamic.

The ARW’s are cold

Not saying this is LI’s ice storm by any stretch but I am saying someone there or close going to get sig ice from this. I see a lot of similarities ... http://www.northshorewx.com/19780113.html

I think everything is trending weaker except the boundary itself. Thinking we’ll see slightly lower heights into the Northeast as a result as well. The orientation of the surface high into southern Ontario is still quite favorable for surface CAD down to the coast. All comes down to where the surface boundary sets up... The old runs looks more like a significant snowstorm with sleet at the margins, this looks more like an ice storm as major impact.