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jbenedet

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Everything posted by jbenedet

  1. jbenedet
    Looks like a TS...
  2. jbenedet
    SST’s very marginal true, but I do believe the exact track wrt to the NHC’s latest forecast cone will have an outsized impact on intensity, especially given how fast he will be moving...The southern track would result in gradual weakening, likely still a hurricane, whereas the northern track could see this weaken to a cirrus swirl...before closest approach to the islands...
  3. jbenedet
    Another nighttime low >/= 70, and another night with short term guidance busting low. Starting to think I should regularly use an N+5 correction for this....
  4. jbenedet
    I would have. I feel like I brought LI climo with me.
  5. jbenedet
    When I moved here in 2015, the prevailing wisdom was “pfft, you don’t need AC, this is NH...” Every year I have needed AC, and the need for it has been increasing...I think the much higher low temps is also a persistence phenomenon, going back years...The +AN has been most apparent in the morning, even outside of seasonably warm patterns...
  6. jbenedet
    Well about 72 hrs out from my post. NHC already assigned 10% chance to this wave...Still think this wave will be most interesting to watch this week.
  7. jbenedet
    York Beach Maine it is.
  8. jbenedet
    Looks like development of next threat is about ~84 hrs out. At least that’s what GEFS/GFS is hinting at. Tropical wave passing through Florida strait/over southern Florida and into Gulf of Mexico—general track towards western Gulf coast.
  9. jbenedet
    Sun out in Dover NH. Outside of Maine, thinking this afternoon could be the main event for most.
  10. jbenedet
    Looks like a round 2/3, this afternoon on meso guidance.
  11. jbenedet
    Upper level heights crashing are so easy to under-appreciate severe risk. This morning felt the least primed for big t-storms in a while..., in terms of sensible weather. Minimal sunshine, mostly cloudy, cool, relatively low dews, and then...boom...
  12. jbenedet
    20 miles to my southeast yesterday; 20 miles to my northwest today. They can keep the hail. Garden destroyer. That cell looks vicious.
  13. jbenedet
    Another loss for the meh-teorologists.
  14. jbenedet
    I like today’s severe threat for eastern half. Clouds are breaking up. All meso guidance still clearly on board. The show is in the afternoon.
  15. jbenedet
    We haven’t seen a legit CP cold front in quite some time, going back at least a month. I mean, I can’t rule out one, but the point stands. CP air masses don’t typically arrive in the subtropics in climatological summer. That’s basically my point. We’re seeing more subtropics than mid latitude climo lately. A bit of a tangent, but even in winter we had cold fronts that brought us *down* from AN to normal to slightly AN for a chunk of the season. Faux cold. Separate factors then or partially related? Either way, appears a long term “persistence“ phenomenon in 2020...
  16. jbenedet
    Really seeming like the northeast is the mid Atlantic/southeast in this pattern. Fay didn’t recurve along a surface cold front as one would normally expect. Tropical airmass before and after she passes. Cape cod may be our OBX this year, if you will. Heads up for big TC threats if general pattern persists into August.
  17. jbenedet
    “Somewhere in the neighborhood of 30 to 50 mph gusts.” Given wind force as an exponential function of velocity, that’s worse than saying the temperature will be in the neighborhood of 30 to 50F.
  18. jbenedet
    I’ll get a for this, but this already looking like a marginal TS on vis with LLC east of OBX. The naked swirl is a distraction from what looks increasingly apparent at this point.
  19. jbenedet
    Usually this latitude is where tropical cyclones begin transitioning, non-tropical...BUT 84F SST under that deep convection...Pretty incredible given climo. Certainly conducive to development of a non-sub tropical TC, with hospitable upper level environment.
  20. jbenedet
    Yea and that’s what the 12z NAM indicated . Granted it’s the nam, but that’s all of the 12z suite we have at the moment. Latest vis does seem to show the convection-less swirl being abandoned for the deep convection east of OBX.
  21. jbenedet
    I’ll take the other side of this. The CoC is further northeast, and there has been a recent blow up of convection right in that location. I think much better shot this surprises to the upside—intensity wise—than the opposite..Next 6-10 hrs will be quite telling, as it remains over the Gulf Stream. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-eastcoast-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
  22. jbenedet
    Northeast quad is where that risk is typically highest, *if* this maintains significant tropical characteristics into the northern Mid Atlantic. With that, I think Long Island, Eastern CT, RI and SE MA, might be more interesting.
  23. jbenedet
    I dunno...This passes as miserable for July weekend weather at FMH. Most obs of fog/mist/overcast. https://w1.weather.gov/obhistory/KFMH.html I went to Hampton beach NH yesterday, to avoid the “stuck in dank” in Maine. It took until 12:30 pm to break into partly cloudy, and then clouds came back in by 4. Really tough pattern for the beaches lately...Used to see this regularly when I lived on LI. And it’s why I never want a beach house in the Northeast as a primary residence...marine boundary layer is a bit$h.
  24. jbenedet
    I was going to head there today but forecast seems to have only steadily worsened the past 48 hrs right at the coast, especially in Maine.. Thinking will have a much better shot at a nice break further south—Rye NH on south... Damn meso-lows...
  25. jbenedet
    For Rain. Sell today buy tomorrow.
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