jbenedet

With ++ AO/ +NAO, I’d sell that idea south of Bangor ME. Maybe you can hedge down to Portland, but I certainly wouldn’t include much else. The cold has much more of an eastward than southward trajectory with these conditions.

There is no tuck with this...weak frontal wave, no Quebec surface HP. The surface CF will be arriving from the northwest... It’s a bonafied torch setup.

Okay didn’t realize that. But in the case of SNE, still looks quite unfavorable through the 20th —keep the shades closed but start peeking....Thinking trend is from crap pacific towards zonal flow pattern (first).

I’ll def take the other side of this over next 10 days, especially for SNE. Close the shades.

This looks just like the GEFS suite...Not sure what he’s talking about here, especially wrt the monster -PNA... I’d feel pretty good about this if we could manage even a very modest -NAO. For now this still looks bad for most...

Seeing this less as a redeveloper and more of a continuous SLP that slides east from upstate NY to PSM, deepening gradually along the way...don’t see how this avoids gaining too much latitude for most of SNE. The WAR looks very problematic.

Haven’t seen it...But Anthony Hopkins has 50 years on me....

Very poor teleconnection in Jan can work for us, bc “poor” also means less “north/south” phasing of jets, and a chunk of the sub forum ends up on the cold side of the southern Jet, due largely to climo and a progressive flow. The in-situ cold in NNE and southern QC is sufficient for future snow, while the snowcover in the region aids in reinforcing climo. This is a setup for CNE and NNE to do quite well, especially the resorts while SNE really struggles. I suspect I’ll be on/very near the margin. Thinking the next 10-14 days looks a lot like this graphic in terms of heaviest snows/ and frozen/rain gradients.

28/24 with NE wind at 10 mph at DAW says it all for those locations. Incoming.

Snowing in Epping NH, after brief period of freezing rain/drizzle.

28/24 in DAW with NE wind at 10mph

Have had everything in Dover. Snow, to some sleet and now freezing rain/drizzle. And that’s happened as the surface temps has dropped...

Yea that’s my thinking as well; at least in terms of the physical processes—latent heat of fusion. I think dewpoints just above the surface would matter a lot here. Unless they are well below freezing I’d lean Freezing Rain. I’m also seeing guidance trend towards greater warming aloft, while the surface cold remains more or less constant. Trend is towards more freezing rain, less sleet...

Just east of the northern Apps the low level easterly component will not occur in a situation of cold air damming, the mesoscale pressure field will trump the synoptic flow. Some may need to open up the textbooks, for reference, but what’s being modeled as easterly wind in parts of SNE will, in reality, be a NNE wind.

Like this in general. Fits my thinking. Only major difference is would have much more East/West gradient with the “big ice threat” area, down to HFD.

Strongly agree with this. Where I disagree is the antecedent airmass is average at best, and late December climo near the coast is not nearly as favorable as late February for this, with warmer SST’s. It doesn’t take much of a low level easterly wind to send BL temps into the mid 30’s.

Without really digging into this, the ageostrophic flow has a significant easterly component which should act to warm the boundary layer well above freezing, in those areas IMO. The coastal low gets going too late to prevent that, as I see it. Zooming out, I think the surface front has that classic “kink” look following the northern Apps, where we get significant cold air damming down to BDL but mid to upper 30’s points East, up to BOS. That’s my thoughts for now anyway. Regardless I agree, sig ice is the big threat, with highest confidence from BDL to ORH.

My initial thoughts vs guidance is go long ice and sell rain/snow from BDL up to SNH. sleet favored from ORH to DAW. Freezing rain favored from ORH to BDL. SNH to ORH gets thumped on the front end with a few inches of snow...

You might be right, but I’ll say since living in coastal NH, the surface CAD is really robust, but at the same time 850 -900 warmth commonly makes its way up to where warm fronts go to die —“Lake Winne Region”. I think this is one of those setups where the surface front ends up over SE MA—*much* further southeast— than at 850.

You would think, but we lose any surface high at that point, and the coastal low isn’t sufficiently deep to generate low level CAD until it’s into Maine. It seems more likely to me that 800-900 warmth is being captured well on guidance for part II, but the surface CAD is significantly underdone. Most likely outcome is areas that are below freezing at the surface through part 1 remain so through part II. Surface temps stagnate while 800-900 warm slightly. Points south, around BDL, are mostly light freezing rain/drizzle, while points north, around PSM, are mostly sleet. Areas, in between (around ORH) are a mix of sleet and freezing rain. Seems more like a “we rot” situation, despite the coastal low development.

26/7 already at KDAW. This looks good for SNE weenies. Go long the 12z ARW WRF

Dare I say the 18z NAM is onto something —only with regard to intensity though. Thinking “strung out” will be lost as the go to vernacular describing this as we get closer in. The surface low likely —as it typically does in these situations—ends up somewhere over SE MA...

PAC doesn’t look bad with PNA neutral. I the PAC being slightly unfavorable is easily offset by greatly improving climo as we head into latter half of December with a -NAO (assuming it holds).

Really difficult not to like where we’re sitting with MJO likely to region/phase 1 and a -NAO/ - -AO in heading into late December. A merry Christmas indeed. I think Monday night delivers mostly white for bulk of us, northwest of I84/I90. Low end warning snowfall looks good for broad area of sub forum. My first guess...

I’m on record here saying I never really like a -EPO, for sig snow storms. As you indicated above, much of this hinges on whether we see a -NAO build around the time the shortwave is over the central conus. Not much clarity there, given the divergence of model outcomes beginning around the 10th—only time can cure this...