jbenedet

I don’t think warm BL temps are getting enough attention in terms of impact. Low ratios/minimal accums on non-grassy surfaces, I think will be main story for bulk of SNE. I think it will even be an appreciable factor in SE NH.

I’m with you. There’s a subtle warming trend on the GFS. I think the mesos are full of shit. Easy to get duped into believing they’re seeing some CAD the globals aren’t, but there is *NO* CAD with this setup. I think temps will be warm throughout for us. Tomorrow we hit 40 and BL temps struggle to fall overnight as low level WAD continues and overcast rolls in Wednesday evening, and then 850’s warm all day Thursday. Poor ratios —> white rain—>sleet mix to mid 30’s drizzle.

Persistence forecast. Looks great for the NNE resorts.

There is at least a disclosure; his tag is “snowcrazed”.

I was just flat out wrong about this; overlooked the ++EPO, and how the pacific is trending worse over time. Won’t do that again. Remarkable how that alone is trumping everything else, AND climo. Can’t fight a terrible pacific; not even in peak climo in New England. Noted.

12z is still worse—warmer/further north, GFS likewise...

I’m unsure. But to me what’s important is Canada in general is torched but the only region showing negative Temp anomalies at 850 and surface is QC. Current guidance has that cold easily eroding but I don’t think that gets scoured so quickly/easily and instead we see a more pronounced CAD drain...

Should have added that I think the shortwave will trend back towards more digging....

Big picture. Trend in MJO and teleconnections all points towards a colder solution with better surface high in NB/QC and more confluence...Canada overall is warm, but thinking conditions are suitable to generate sufficient regional cold, given climo, snowpack, and the above...

Thinking the warming/north trend is nearing an end ....Trend towards south/colder likely to begin shortly...How far? Not sure but some kind of middle ground of yesterday’s 0z/6z runs vs today’s 0z/6z runs seems like a good baseline, hedging in favor of colder/south vs warmer/north

We only have 20 more runs of the GFS before this storm is on our doorstep, but let’s analyze details...

More like day 5...Onset is early Saturday p.m. for most. Slow mover through day 6.

Synoptic wave development. Disturbance cuts off quickly = Minimal downstream UL ridging. Most ironic thing to me is the fact that SNE folks are the ones complainin’ most about this potential, meanwhile NNE is where the greatest “non-event“ risk lies... With time this is looking more like an SNE and Northern mid Atlantic snowstorm to me, but everyone in those areas focused on marginal temps that won’t matter if the Synoptics pan out.

18z GEFS for next weekend looks great. Juiced run. Miller A.

Yea but at/near peak climo means antecedent airmass matters much less if we get a deep coastal low. Late January means deep cold to tap is close by...I think too much focus on temp at onset, and missing bigger picture. This also has characteristics of a Miller A with subsequent phase. The sub tropical jet appears to be involved early on in this setup...May seem like a minor detail but reason I’m brining this up, is bc I think this evolution has a much better chance of being dynamic enough to quickly overcome any antecedent airmass issues...

I dunno. I think it’s emotions that are getting the best of people right now. I take this look on this guidance at day 7 any day of winter, unless of course you’re not wanting a snowstorm. Don’t the best snowstorms almost always come with the rain/snow line not far from the coast? Anyway I think it’s one of those cases, if it comes to fruition. Moisture rich and no ptype concerns are two sides of the same coin. Can’t have it both ways...

I think the day 8 system comes back as at least SECS. And first one of the season to watch that has a appreciable shot at becoming a MECS...SNE also in the game on this ...My first *low* confidence guess...

Elevation FTW? Temp never increased much, but mid 30’s with high dews did their work to eat most of the 1-3” that had accumulated. Had the look/feeling that if this event had started during the day we would have had significantly less...just seemed odd for mid January, especially with mid to Upper 40’s for highs yesterday...

This really had the look and feel of a late March/early April light snowfall. Surface temps marginal, and bulk of accums on warmer surfaces occurred before the sun came up...Shortly after sunrise, hit 34ish and white rain/rain snow mix...2pm and greater than half of what had fallen is gone.

Perhaps a case of correlation is not causation; but the 18th is starting to look a lot more like a storm overlaid with the MJO phase 6 in mid January. It was what I cautioned with anyway... Just sayin’ Still time to change. But feeling more confident that this not a winter storm for the bulk of us—me included.

MJO in phase 6 def gives me pause/concern that Saturday doesn’t end up colder/snowier than current guidance. Admittedly though, I haven’t been following the MJO until very recently...So how strong this signal is vs the other players and climo is something I’m still piecing together... To me the only takeaway is the MJO is potentially calling BS on significant East Coast confluence/troughing ahead of this shortwave...I.E. current model guidance for a weak +NAO/-NAO setting up around that timeframe may be faux or transient. NAO end up more positive? Hopefully someone here who follows MJO more closely can offer a better opinion on this...

Coastal NNE. CNE is interior MA; that’s my take anyway

18th has to be watched very closely. I feel like CNE and NNE in great spots for this. The big question is the rest of us...

I think Wed is going to end up quite warm for most. Probably another beautiful day —50 in PSM? I can see that ... Thursday, well AN before the CF as well—40’s...Thursday looks like a NNE resorts, and away from the coast in ME type deal for snow lovers.