jbenedet

Big -NAO incoming. Just in time for spring... Hopefully confluence is significant enough to send the doors down to ACY/Maryland —can make for pretty nice weather up here, if this pattern wants to lock in, in early April.

Haven’t been following the disco in the Coronavirus thread, but yea, there’s clearly an observable pattern between early spring time temps and most efficient spread of the virus. Research has also pointed to the same thing—two separate studies. One indicating 47F “peak” for spread, another 0-15C. Long story short, this is the only time you’ll see me cheering for late March/April snow. Then bring on a torch please...

I can confirm. I road tripped down to Florida thurs/fri, and didn’t see leaf out and widespread green grasses until in central/southern parts of South Carolina. Understood this to be —in large part—a result of Jan-March CONUS pattern, with dominant pacific that results in negative T anomalies in the southeast but significant positive anomalies in the northern mid Atlantic and especially Northeast.

Ah never was on the inside of that joke...

Interesting. Can you elaborate on that with the context of this winter ? Or @OSUmetstud?

This winter has been most remarkable in its lack of cold air. Numerous significant “cold” fronts immediately followed by AN temps. This morning I was shocked to see the car therm read 28F at 6a.m. in late February after ~12 hrs of gusty northwesterly winds.

Looks like a persistence forecast. Especially for our region...

I think this is an all snow event for you. Wedge looks very legit; first significant one in a while. Triple point wedge, with the surface reflection tracking south/east of PSM. I think down to ORH out to the Berks needs to watch this closely as well. I’m now expecting a mess imby. Mostly frozen. Hope I’m wrong though. Ready for spring unless it’s a MECS...

Thought about this as well. Obviously now at a point that little can be discounted, but what steers me away from this is the progressive tenor of season as well as the teleconnections AND global guidance, which all point to this thing chugging along—not racing, but certainly not your bowling ball-esque type evolution. Yes we have robust amplitudes, but she will be moving...

With the day 6 event, I’d def be hedging west and intense right now. The shortwave traversing the Pacific Northwest around hr 60 continues to look deep on guidance early on...The PNA ridge looks very amped in this setup as well. In terms of snow I think we want to be looking for triple point opportunities or an early cut-off bc the synoptic track appears unfavorable, barring significant changes. Interior NNE can have significant snow in almost any given situation this time of the year, so mostly wet or mostly white is still very much up in the air in those parts and will be for some time...

Looked at those numbers and thought to myself, “that sounds a lot like winter in the Carolinas...” Funny thing is, by this time tomorrow ~1/4 of NC will have received about as much snowfall as you through 2/21.

BS. And BS. We can agree to disagree. I don’t care. Pretty incredible the airmass had no bearing on snow accums. What was that the first time this season?

4-6” was always a bad bet bc you needed everything to go perfectly for that to verify—temps, lift and qpf. I pointed mostly to the former 2 as to why I was anticipating much less. I don’t care what you guys want to say—implying that less than mod rates with surface temps 32/33 has no impact on accums just doesn’t add up at the stake. A degree or two matters significantly in this case. That’s my point and I’ll stick with it, bc it works. Also I flipped to sleet around 7 a.m. I lost ~0.1” LE to mix and rain, and what fell before sunrise couldn’t offset what would be lost after 6am, bc the ratios sucked. Period. End of story.

Not an airmass issue the one time —all season— it fits *your* narrative. Airmass issues are the theme of the season, but you will disregard that now...Tell me how *little* snow SNE received from this event, and then we’ll pretend like SNH snowfall amounts weren’t at all adversely impacted by what happened down there. ORH hit 35 F on 2/13 also btw, as did ASH and PSM.

No it wasn’t just a matter of qpf. “Cold enough”. For what? At the end of the day it’s also about ratios and how it accumulates. What fell overnight wasn’t high ratio fluff and what fell 6am on didn’t stack up in SNH.

No. Last one I called for 2-3”, half of GYX’s map issued 2/11, which turned out to be spot on done here. I think we get a trace on Tuesday.

Agree on dews. But I’m leaning slightly warmer vs guidance the next several days. I also think Tuesday, aside from perhaps a negligible frozen start, will be a rain event here.

Heh. 1-3” mostly. But quite a bit of ice in that...

Today looks really nice; 40 looks attainable in SNH. Probably going to lose the pack here by Wednesday.

Mostly sleet here now. Some snow grains

Looks more like an early spring type snowfall. I’ll leave it at that. Especially given that it happened overnight and temps already pushing above freezing.

Beautiful out. Even up here was a complete paste job. I’ll def take it, no issue on roads but a nice scenery. Don’t think there’s more than 3” here, eyeballing it.

NAM is selling BS and some are buying.

That actually illustrates my point quite well. 31-35 for most of SNE and Eastern half of rockingham and Stratford counties in NH. Northfield will do well, I agree with that. I’m expecting a tick warmer today on guidance.

Oh it will accum, I just think the qpf and snow maps are overstating impacts broadly. In SNE and sea coast NH, I would go less than 10:1 overnight and thinking melting will largely offset what falls during the day. I don’t think the slight warming trend is over either... You’re in a great spot though.