Jump to content

jbenedet

Meteorologist
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    7,290

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by jbenedet

  1. jbenedet
    That band from Boston down to New Haven is awesome. Just training, and intensifying over time. Boston and south west suburbs are going to come out of this with highest totals I think...and easily over a foot.
  2. jbenedet
    Some general obs/rule of thumbs that argue against a weak system and for a bigger event. Today is a beaut by mid winter standards...(seriously get outside). Great weather days often immediately precede strong storms... Sound of snow melt, at 9:00 am doesn’t exactly fit with the progressive/suppressed SE solutions...
  3. jbenedet
    It’s getting closer to significant winter storm despite the recent surface trends. Boston to SE MA should def hedge snowfall forecasts significantly higher. We’re seeing a -NAO develop with UL heights building into New Brunswick, and QC from the central Atlantic. This is having the effect of slowing the disturbance and increasing chances of an earlier northern stream phase.
  4. jbenedet
    “Progressive progressive progressive “ I mean, even if you want to leverage the hell out of that point, the PNA ridge axis is off the west coast...This disturbance has A LOT of longitude to pump UL heights...
  5. jbenedet
    That was 987 mb at the BM on the 12z ukie. Nice.
  6. jbenedet
    Feb 7 2003. Good low end benchmark. I’d reference this for a “conservative forecast” right now.
  7. jbenedet
    My mistake.
  8. jbenedet
    The upside potential remains very high.
  9. jbenedet
    And that’s with very limited northern stream involvement.
  10. jbenedet
    I mean it’s both. No? Instead of the track ENE/NE trajectory more like an open wave we see it bend/tug back a bit, more akin to a maturing system. That’s my thought process.
  11. jbenedet
    Increased phasing, and more rapid synoptic wave development... that’s my guess anyway.
  12. jbenedet
    The northern stream is trending towards increased phasing... What happens if 6z GFS hr 42 looks more like this?
  13. jbenedet
    All op guidance is on the progressive/fast side of the envelope. The teleconnections and a short wave traversing the Northern GOM argues for the amped/slow side .... Risk remains strongly in favor of major guidance trending further in this direction...
  14. jbenedet
    Wrong. Sir. She gon slowwwww down.
  15. jbenedet
    The big one on Sunday/Monday cheers
  16. jbenedet
    I’d watch that the mesos are following convection more than synoptic height field... The globals make more sense to me in terms of the mid level and surface track... crazier things have happened but I’ve learned through experience to expect a last minute correction southeast when a robust Canadian high is in place... To be sure, some guidance never catches on (corrects)...
  17. jbenedet
    Uhm. Yea. That’s a slam dunk I’d say at this point.... You are in a fantastic spot for this storm. Enjoy.
  18. jbenedet
    That 29/2, 28/3 in new haven CT, Bridgeport CT respectively is wow. That’s a wall...
  19. jbenedet
    Surface temps looks really cold in NYC throughout. Peak out in upper 20’s it looks like. If there’s ptype issues it’s the mid levels and sleet or freezing rain.
  20. jbenedet
    One helluva CAD signal into LI seeing those bent isobars like that...
  21. jbenedet
    Why you would use the NAM for this analysis over the EPS/ GFS, is beyond me...
  22. jbenedet
    January 2016. Still a good analog in my view. We have a warmer version of this... Shift everything ~50 miles northwest..
  23. jbenedet
    Attitudes will shift when they start feeling the cold overhead... The warm bias will fade in the models and in the minds of weenies... We are all at our high temps for the day..
  24. jbenedet
    I think you’re going to see a correction back southeast today as the arctic airmass that’s building into the region throughout the day begins to get ingested into the models. The temp drops throughout the day today.... This airmass is very cold and dry as the storm approaches...DENSE. The orientation of the high is a classic CAD over performing location for northeast/mid Atlantic... I would strongly hedge higher than current guidance for snowfall amounts in LI/NYC area...
  25. jbenedet
    This analog was circulating yesterday. Reality will look something much more like this. Where the gradient really sets up is difficult to know, but my best guess is right around I-90. Shift this roughly 50 miles north... Harvey has me in 2-6”. I’ll take pics of my overcast.
×
×
  • Create New...