jbenedet

Bc they only belong in a circus?

You can do that. Fine. I think about what a given outcome will look like (independent of models), and see if that starts to show up in the guidance. That’s what this 12z GFS run was for me.

Thank me later. Saving weenies some time is all.

I’m not pointing out the GFS as having superior skill. I specified this run is much closer to what will verify imo.

I’m going to call an EPS FAIL on this one. 12z GFS much closer to what this is shaping up to be. Looks like a yawner for 99% of us. Thinking you’ll want to be in northern greens,, the whites and northern Maine to see snow from this one. Everyone else, enjoy the rain and Fropa.

Which surface low? Heh. The synoptically driven one that develops near the Delaware bay? Sure. But even the 6z GFS is developing a meso low/weak TC that traverses the Carolina coast. Maybe it doesn’t happen, but that’s the other area to watch for surface pressure falls, especially judging by the convection collocated there right now.

Think the specific area to watch is the blob of convection south of Wilmington NC. Difficult to tell by radar but appears there may already be a very weak LLC embedded within that.

Wrt last night’s 0z runs, hedge bets in favor of a correction slightly west as guidance tends to underestimate downstream UL ridge amplification due to LHR. The deep tropical nature of this system means the correction inside 12-24 hr could be larger than usual...

It seems that this shouldn’t remain a mystery for long. The mesolow—if it develops—is currently developing off the Carolina coast. That much is consistent across the guidance which has it. We watch.

Just being facetious. Seems like splitting hairs in this case, bc where it may not verify in the front end has a decent probability of verifying on the back end.

Heh south coast of RI, is RI. I’d go south shore MA over CT.

Whatever the case is, the mini cane that heads into Coastal RI, has been remarkably consistent across guidance since early yesterday...

I dunno, maybe I’m oversimplifying this, but to me the whole problem gets reduced to this: either we see nascent signs of a tropical disturbance develop off the SE coast today, or we don’t. If it’s the latter, the less amped 0z/6z euro-esque solution is the most likely outcome.

Yea I can see it in the warm sector where its collocated with deep convection and then post occlusion in the south eastern quadrant, assuming it tracks near/over ORH as the ageostrphic flow at the surface remains off the 55-65F ocean while the mid/low level circulation begins wrapping in a continental polar airmass. The more maritime tropical air this can flood into the region the more substantial and prolonged the “part II” of the winds will be...RI and south shore MA look like the best places to be....

will be very interesting to see if the deep convection off the GA coast develops a weak SLP today.

12z Ukie looks a lot like the Euro now.

I do think this evolution would make a whole lot more sense, physically, if there was a tropical disturbance off the southeast coast prior to the approach of the UL trough across the Midwest. There is a weak surface trough that stalls just off the SE coast tomorrow. Some guidance shows shower activity and clouds collocated in that region. I’ll be focusing on that area tomorrow to see if there’s any sign of tropical development...

The UL setup really isn’t that terribly anomalous for us—good for a significant Nor’easter no doubt—but 960’s??? The only way the nuke materializes is with a robust tropical connection. Either the euro and nam are wayyyy OTL on what happens near Savannah GA, or we’re going to see a small cane running up the coast.

NAM is clearly a warm core system up to Coastal SNE. I’d toss this far if not for the euro showing a similar solution several runs in a row now...

I’d be much more inclined to sell the wind threat if this was winter or especially early spring. Mid October climo (SST’s) will —in general—translate to much more efficient mixing down to the surface in the warm sector pre-occlusion and in the eastern half of the system post occlusion. In terms of population impacted we need to see if this west trend persists. What do the impacts looks like if this occludes over Hartford CT or Providence RI vs Portsmouth NH? Worst impacts in terms of wind and surge shift from coastal ME to coastal MA and RI...Low probs at this point, but something to watch.

Obviously. Take 30% off those numbers at least. Probably 40% -50% off, inland. Anyway, the exact output with those graphics wasn’t the point. It never is at 72+ hrs..

Yea it wasn’t weaker. Looked just as wound up, but further west. Down to 970’s south of CT. The euro continues to show a microcane type feature as well. The the 3hr gust output is obviously hugely overdone (as usual), but linking it to highlight this mesoscale feature....

Seems the more intense guidance is reflecting a more tropical connection to the development of the coastal—NAM/Euro—vs the GFS and Ukie. All major guidance continues to trend west, and further from a classic Miller B.. Overall appears like a blend between the two evolutions, A/B at the moment...

Yea and much of that has to do with communication to the public on a case by case basis. In this situation the classification would do little to change the publics’ perceived impacts/precautions.