jbenedet

This should have already been upgraded. I presume they didn’t want to jump from 20% probs to “it’s a storm” in one advisory?

Was hoping at this point to see guidance —in general—begin to show more significant deepening. Guidance continues to have mostly Nor Easter type pressure falls (considering the lack of baroclincity) despite early October climo near the Gulf Stream and merging with tropical disturbance to its southwest. I suspect the sub tropical nature of this system will lead to some significant surprises until/unless guidance begins to catch onto this reality. Regardless, the main takeaway is there is no mechanism to drive the system overhead. If this is going to be a significant event it will be via significant pressure falls, enhancing the gradient, NOT a closer pass to the coast.

H5 October 31st 1991 vs today’s 12z euro.

Just some quick observations: I know I’ll catch a lot of weenie tags for this, but the 12z euro looks like an analog of the 1991 perfect storm, in terms of the major players (NOT impact). Many similarities, including the Halloween blizzard that buried the upper Midwest at the same time. There’s obviously some key differences as well —nothing (yet) has this system deepening anywhere close to the 970’s. The absorption of hurricane Grace helped to make that storm quite unique...*If* anything remarkable can happen with this it will have be through some combination of absorption of tropical disturbances west of Bermuda and deepening as a sub tropical cyclone in and around the Gulf Stream. The GFS is still largely a non-event so confidence in anything impactful is still low... https://www.weather.gov/dlh/1991halloweenblizzard

Full moon on the 13th. Event appears to climax on or before 10/12...Worth noting in the event the track trends slower/further west over time...

Just a quick look but little surprised by SPC’s limited interest in severe for Wednesday. Antecedent airmass looks great. As does timing for eastern third of the forum. Decent UL height falls...Limiting factor appears to be shear, but that parameter should be conducive in CNE/ NNE, for at least widespread pulse, maybe an MCS in SE NH/ Maine?

Think there’s a 50/50 chance we see a lemon over the north central Gulf as this UL trough digs south over the next 24 hrs. Seems to be increasing model support for a weak surface low, collocated with deep convection near LA, tracking east, pretty close to the coast. Little chance this has the environment or time to develop into something more meaningful. Just something to watch.

Was out at York beach today and was shocked how warm the water is...just checked buoys throughout the Gulf of Maine...lots of upper 60’s and low 70’s already....For early July? Wow...

Thinking I manage another 2”-3” in this last band developing in Central NH. It likely will contain the best rates of the storm as I lose the subsidence from the intense banding to the SE.

18z GEFS are juiced. Looks like warning snows for 75% of SNE. SE MA, RI, and extreme SE CT 1” - 1.25” LE.

Yea. There was also another Nor Easter last year where the SLP ran over SE Mass but dumped widespread 30”+ in Upstate NY, near Binghamton area. That was due to a similar situarion as this with the mid level tracks being displaced well to the west.

Yea unless you live at the base of a mountain. Tell me about it.

Careful you’re starting to sound like a

Yea this is incredible. More than the past two seasons combined I’d say...

AWT. That’s awesome. Band has been fun up here but def not the epic rates you’re seeing in eastern MA. I think Nashua NH area got in the best of it as well.

Awesome. We salute you.

What did you just pick up in the past hr? 5”?

Yea well I guess by that if you take 5 hrs and avg 2.4/hr you’re at a foot. Not quite sure why it’s unreasonable given the context. Coastal MA has a lot of catching up to do in term of those euro qpf totals. Just sayin’ We’ll see...

There’s another band developing in behind it. Also 1-3 is kind of a wide range —no? 40 dbz is 4”+ type calibur given the context I would think...

Nice. BOS is good for snow through 11 pm and this looks like heavy snow to the end.

Call me a weenie, if you want but I think BOS will tack on close to a foot from that band. It’s tightening up and will have some epic rates associated with it... perfect timing too in terms of limiting ISR and BL impacts...