jbenedet
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Everything posted by jbenedet
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Fortunately it will be hauling ass so hopefully that will mitigate surge. Yes, there still will be surge, but again, forward motion is so fast it may not have enough time to build surge inland too far or compromise levees. This looks like it will be a bad wind event however as time is going to run out before it can weaken from maximum intensity... Forward speed will not affect surge. Wave heights yes, surge, no. The storm surge will seem like it’s coming in like a wall bc of how fast the storm is moving into landfall... Also, I see New Orleans high tide is in 4 hrs, at *6:00 pm* CST. Seems like Zeta will be over New Orleans right around that time...
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Reasoning? Every pc of guidance I have seen shows zeta intensifying—albeit slowly—right up until landfall. Current trends also show this is the case.
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Core is intact and offshore. zeta looks quite healthy and symmetrical. Looks better than Delta did at same time...from what I recall...
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6z HWRF is now showing a strong cat 2 at landfall.
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Imo this is a case of mostly “b” . Speaking for NH, we never had an outbreak here (trending towards this now though) and so d and e don’t apply. What’s missed here —on a national level—is many younger and healthier people are getting it now... I’d combine this with “b” to explain trend in lower CFR. I think big risk for a reversal in positive CFR trend is flu season, combined with no lockdowns possibly resulting in overwhelming healthcare system and treatment quality deteriorating...That would be another “oh $hit moment” ... This risk remains low *for now*...fortunately...
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So the GFS was right after all... Shame it lost the threat after having it for run after run after run, several days in a row...
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95L will be impacting the CONUS given this look. Florida to the Northern Gulf Coast, biggest risk. The latter, a persistence forecast, more likely imo. This should also be a TC system throughout—-not expecting evolution as a STC, given synoptically there will be a robust STJ connection due to shortwave trough over south central US driving warm, moist air over the w Caribbean/GOM/SE US during the period concerned... Dry air, an issue most of this season, unlikely to be a problem this time....
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I’d just focus on out to day 9 right now. That’s when guidance is showing a potential TC. And it’s not in clown range. We need high confidence that a strong tropical cyclone will develop in the western Caribbean first. Everything else is for entertainment purposes at this point.
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Looks like a worst case scenario unfolding for Cancún Mexico.
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The teleconnections are amped for our region leading up to the Monday disturbance. I would hedge accordingly...12z GFS correcting but still seems far behind in terms of what the tele’s are advertising. We have a legitimate tropical disturbance in the West Caribbean also, and it wouldn’t take much more digging to get that player directly involved... Tropics meet October Continental Polar air mass? Yes please.
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This low level swirl East of the Del Marva the remnants of Sally...? Might ruin our chances of nice weather today... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-eastcoast-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
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Two different opportunities. First with better UL synoptic setup, second with better tropical connection. Sharp UL troughs over the N Gulf or SE Coast can often spawn TC’s/STC’s this time of the yr, and w/o much guidance support at short leads... So I’m still focused on the day 5 potential...
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Kinda surprised no one has dropped the “Harvey” analog yet.. I haven’t looked into it but I believe Harvey also occurred during a significant -NAO, which seems we will likely have this time as well.
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2020-bias. Murphy’s law reigns
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Key to any close approach to eastern New England is 1)stronger than modeled WAR pushes Ted southwest of Bermuda and 2)Development of a +3SD -NAO block....over North Atlantic. Lacking both at the moment, but greater issue is with point 1) presently....
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Most rain I’ve had in weeks. Guessing close to but less than 0.2”. Yes, it’s been THAT dry.
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No. Latitude. It became extra tropical and phased right around NYC metro, hence also began tracking due north...That’s also why the wind impact broadened for our sub forum despite it tracking much further west.
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Not weird... The pressure gradient was much more representative of a tropical system at that latitude.
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NYC looks like a prime spot for tornado threat and high wind threat...Staten Island and Brooklyn are likely greatest risk being exposed to the southeast fetch off the open water... That recent 90 mph gust in Virginia was also reported in the same sector that’s likely to effect NYC area if extrapolate current trajectory...
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Tropical feeling out there today is legit. Especially with the breeze. Yep a TS is incoming.
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The euro initialized with Isaias at 1000 mb 12z Friday. It has him down to 995 mb by 12z Saturday. Isaia’s current min surface pressure is 991 mb. No model, including the 12z Euro has this storm weakening between now and tomorrow. So you take this piece of guidance and you toss....far....- 1,530 replies
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Seasons in seasons. This looks much more like early fall, than mid summer. Tenor of season has been above normal heights over the western Atlantic, and guidance having —in general—to correct higher with time. I don’t see how this misses the Carolina’s...he’s not gaining much of an easterly component before OBX...not this year... NHC’s cone is further east than both the EPS and GEFS. Risk to me seems much greater that this runs well inland than ots...
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As a cat 1, with a background flow of ~ 30 mph it would translate to impacts more similar to a high end cat 2 in the rear right quadrant.
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Full moon on the 3rd.. Surge will likely be a significant impact in the right front quadrant...*if* the storm track is ~perpendicular to coast upon landfall. Will be critical to determine when (exactly) the velocity (track) gains a more easterly component.
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