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jbenedet

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by jbenedet

  1. jbenedet
    Surface temps looks really cold in NYC throughout. Peak out in upper 20’s it looks like. If there’s ptype issues it’s the mid levels and sleet or freezing rain.
  2. jbenedet
    One helluva CAD signal into LI seeing those bent isobars like that...
  3. jbenedet
    Why you would use the NAM for this analysis over the EPS/ GFS, is beyond me...
  4. jbenedet
    January 2016. Still a good analog in my view. We have a warmer version of this... Shift everything ~50 miles northwest..
  5. jbenedet
    Attitudes will shift when they start feeling the cold overhead... The warm bias will fade in the models and in the minds of weenies... We are all at our high temps for the day..
  6. jbenedet
    I think you’re going to see a correction back southeast today as the arctic airmass that’s building into the region throughout the day begins to get ingested into the models. The temp drops throughout the day today.... This airmass is very cold and dry as the storm approaches...DENSE. The orientation of the high is a classic CAD over performing location for northeast/mid Atlantic... I would strongly hedge higher than current guidance for snowfall amounts in LI/NYC area...
  7. jbenedet
    This analog was circulating yesterday. Reality will look something much more like this. Where the gradient really sets up is difficult to know, but my best guess is right around I-90. Shift this roughly 50 miles north... Harvey has me in 2-6”. I’ll take pics of my overcast.
  8. jbenedet
    I called the forecast north of I-90 trash not him
  9. jbenedet
    Wishcast away my friend.
  10. jbenedet
    I’m sorry this is worthy of the trash. There’s going to be a really sharp gradient along I90 ish. It’s going to be a great storm south of there. More of a “feast or famine...” The global guidance continues to flag significant dry air/subsidence, to the north of I90. That’s why snowfall total maps are not jiving well with the apparent precip shield to the north. To me, that’s a giant red flag that what will we be seeing is a lot of radar echoes with little/nothing reaching the ground. That 4-8, 2-6 area is going to bust very high, unless there are big changes between now and go time.
  11. jbenedet
    Good analog
  12. jbenedet
    Yea no kidding. This is pretty much exactly what he should want at this stage for being on the Cape in mid December. One, rare time I wouldn’t be worrying about p type issues either.
  13. jbenedet
    If the cold was advecting from the north west, we could get this to bend back north through traditional yntopic wave development...All of the cold is over our NNE heads and due north... it’s an East trajectory...sharp cutoff to the north...
  14. jbenedet
    Hope springs eternal.
  15. jbenedet
    It doesn’t. Was talking about ICON.
  16. jbenedet
    Support from models with poor verification scores isn’t forecast support. It’s just giving false sense of confidence.
  17. jbenedet
    The ukie looks like GFS through 72hr. I don’t buy that 1003 SLP at 96. It should be a stronger system further south...
  18. jbenedet
    Wagons south
  19. jbenedet
    Are we really resorting to the ICON? How have we reached this level of denial already....
  20. jbenedet
    947 mb low North of NL at hr 72 on the ukie. Weenie crusher....
  21. jbenedet
    That’s a red flag that the SLP is too far north imo. Disturbance can’t pump downstream heights into a 1038 mb Arctic high anchored over southern QC/NNE. The previous panel looks very similar to 12z GFS
  22. jbenedet
    The airmass and associated surface HP over NNE is a rock. That’s why the SLP gets shunted East despite sharper UL trough...
  23. jbenedet
    Right now NYC/LI is my “highest confidence area for a significant snowfall”. Right now looks like an all snow event down there to me. Very cold dews should make that attainable... and the mid levels are never an issue with this given the synoptic development.......
  24. jbenedet
    Good questions. My Basis—H5 shows lack of downstream ridging across guidance over eastern CONUS. At same time, the surface Canadian HP appears more sprawling/building rather than retreating...
  25. jbenedet
    The teleconnections support the GFS, imo. Where the arctic is tappable it will be effin cold. And the heart of it just so happens to be closest to NNE at the storms closest approach.
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