jbenedet

This looks like one that models will never completely catch onto and just keep correcting (ticking) 850 south/east at initialization.

Yes terrible. And it wasn’t just one or two “off” runs either. It tracked 850 low into NNH/N VT area for several days...

Sure. That general vicinity seems reasonable. The point I’m trying to highlight is a track E/ENE from there seems more reasonable than right up into central NNE. The GFS has been the worst in this regard. There are several ways to view this evolution—one is as a broad area of surface low pressure; the other is a series of surface lows that keep firing to the east of our ULL and then vertically stack. The surface lows follow the general track of ULL from west to east. I’m more in the latter camp.

Where is ryan’s back yard again? I forgot—it’s been a while...

I agree it’s not an issue for western locales. The midlevel track looks like there will be large area of warning snows for western MA and most of VT. And probably a smaller (but still quite broad area) of 12-24” within that where the banding sets up and sits.

These large cut-off lows are notoriously fickle in determining where the best surface pressure falls should be located. At times they seem to defy the laws of physics. I’m not sure why a primary would be stopped in its tracks going into western NY only to see a subsequent surface low develop near NJ and immediately track into the region that forced the redevelopment. To my mind the UL jet and baroclincity maximize surface pressure falls further southeast than the consensus—just off the coast—- but I’ve felt this way for several days and here we are...

Historic. Exactly. Such extremes often precede a very powerful storm system. As we get closer to Tuesday, my confidence continues to increase that we’ll see a big snowstorm (especially by November standards). Interior SNE is still very much in the game for this...Wouldn’t be surprised at all to see our coastal end up just inside the BM with the amount of blocking we have over the western North Atlantic.

I think we continue to see this pressed south...We’ll see...

I’m much more bullish than that. The lead wave on Sunday is also going to help crash heights behind it...SNE should be watching as well imo.

Monday/Tuesday

This one is trending nicely. Good to see lower heights in the east, and the low level cold over building over southeastern Canada. Deepest cold west, but trend is to send more of it east, sooner...

Agree in general. The high confidence call is the pattern is incredibly amped. Incredibly amped patterns produce very intense systems that can “create their own cold”, if you will....And given what I outlined above, this system is likely to be to our south/east. That’s how I see this from a high level perspective right now...

Pattern isn’t conducive to cutters. We’ve seen many solutions with deep systems in the plains, and yet ultimately by the time they get to us they’re sliding under 40N. Don’t fear an early bloomer with a - - NAO. As I see it now, issue is related to airmass and climatology. Best cold displaced to the west. For many this looks like a battle of strong dynamics vs stale airmass. Too early for details but rain to snow is highest chances for bulk of us imo.

What a pattern next week. If you want a stalled/slow moving, intense Nor’ Easter this is the setup to get one...

This subforum. Bowling ball

Monday/Tuesday looks like a doozie.

Any updates?

Looks a little low, but not terrible. Eying it I think I’m already approaching 3”. 4-8” will probably verify broadly, away from the coast, with most areas at 5-6” sans Portland ME - east. Poor Ratios due to marginal temps are helping your forecast but the local precip max looks to be in our area. Appears to be good lift in the SGZ—seeing healthy looking aggregates. 1000 mb low doesn’t really get anyone excited but this little guy has more moisture to work with, with November SST’s, which may be contributing to the healthier looking radar returns despite the relatively feeble dynamics.

Pretty impressive radar already considering we don’t even have our consolidated coastal low yet. The returns should really blossom and fill in from now through the next 6 hrs in eastern areas. Difficult to see how I will end up with less than 6” out of this...It may be November climo but daytime ISR isn’t a seasonal issue at least... Moderate SN currently. Rate has really picked up in past hr.

Quebec surface High quietly making its presence known on latest guidance. Surface trending colder into go time...

ORH a great spot. But best rates east imo. This will be especially tricky for north coast MA. I think it will rip there for 3-6 hrs before she pulls east. BL temps needed FTW...

It is November, so there’s that—much easier to get rich with latitude right now. But where will the best dynamics be? I think Eastern MA to Downeast ME. Thinking Miller B with this.

The 0z EPS evolution makes most sense to me. Less of an intensifying clipper event; more Miller B esque. I think that’s the major distinction in guidance right now.

I’m talking about today’s “event” if we can even call it one...I’m expecting the BZ to get nudged a bit south in its wake.

Unusual to have back to back events jackpot the same area. My hunch is we see this come south back towards yesterday’s 12z euro.