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jbenedet

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Everything posted by jbenedet

  1. jbenedet
    Go long blocking, phase and tug west.
  2. jbenedet
    The 0z Ukie has a 1020 mb high anchored over New Brunswick from hrs 42 to 72.
  3. jbenedet
    The most impactful storms up here are due to significant HP systems—causing synoptic scale pressure gradient winds, slow down, and phasing with upper levels before leaving the region. Everyone focuses on the storm, itself. Look at the HP. It doesn’t have a path east, until it goes west.
  4. jbenedet
    At least not yet as per model consensus. But i’d be hedging strongly in favor of a sharper trough given the significant -NAO. I think a tug west, phase, stall/meander 12-24 hr eject ENE, makes most sense.
  5. jbenedet
    6z HMON coming in A LOT stronger vs 0z through 36 hrs. Looks like a cat 2 by that hr.
  6. jbenedet
    Intensity aside, the UKie tug west via capture makes a lot more sense to me physically, vs a GFS track that takes it into ME virtually unimpeded. There is HP building into northern ME and NS during that time frame. There will certainly be some form of ET transition given climo and UL trough interaction...
  7. jbenedet
    already at 998, deeper than the 12z euro has it at 12z tomorrow
  8. jbenedet
    Exactly. Almost as if the next 24 hrs will determine the final outcome. Latest coordinates appear like the south/west camp is winning...at least so far.
  9. jbenedet
    You all realize the euro as of 12z yesterday, didn’t even have henri as a tropical disturbance at 39N and was 200 miles ots upon closest approach It’s slowly capitulating to the rest of guidance.
  10. jbenedet
    Strangest things tend to happen with significant -NAO blocking which we have. GFS too progressive. Ukie seems like a worst case based on climo. 12z Ukie/GFS 50/50 blend seems fair for a baseline case right now IMO.
  11. jbenedet
    The most curious thing is UKie showing this intensity with a slowdown over cool water. There’s def an UL phasing element to this, unlike other major guidance.
  12. jbenedet
    That is too low —by like half—in the UKie scenario. Lol It meanders/crawls north for 24 hrs after landfall.
  13. jbenedet
    If we get a track close to Long Island I could see this stalling out completely near 40N. This -NAO block is significant and there’s no trough. Henri may be a decaying TC at that latitude but I think the flash flooding risk is a lot higher than currently modeled. Prolonged Easterly fetch in late august with tropical dews.
  14. jbenedet
    Full moon on Sunday. A blue moon. “Once in a blue moon?” The slower movement but longer duration could mean a bigger threat for coastal flooding than it appears. Surge likely lessened but wave heights greatened. Henri has already been building seas across LI and SNE given his unusual track near Bermuda, in the neighborhood of the mid latitudes.
  15. jbenedet
    Looks like a non-linear increase in intensity is about to happen based on vis. A step-wise jump from minimal TS to something more akin to a minimal Hurricane...
  16. jbenedet
    Took the dog for a 45 min run at 9a.m. Felt a lot more like running at 1p.m.
  17. jbenedet
    These “low temps” lol. Walking around Dover seeing so many without multiple window units, window fans to try and exhaust the heat. Very few with central air. It’s not a luxury anymore, it’s a necessity. Today will make it 15 days 90+ to date?
  18. jbenedet
    Fred’s most important contribution may be in the impact to Grace’s track. Given current forecast, Fred will likely help build UL heights over the western Atlantic as Grace nears Florida, which would mean a more westward track near southern Florida. A WNW track for next several days, to W? That’s my guess... Biggest takeaway is a recurve east of Florida looks very unlikely at the moment.
  19. jbenedet
    NHC should have a lemon off the SE coast. Looks like a non-negligible chance at one of those last minute OBXer’s... Nah instead, what is most likely to happen —if something does get organized—is NHC throws up odds when we all already see a TD on vis.
  20. jbenedet
    In August this is a signal for a Mid Atlantic/New England TC threat Just Sayin’
  21. jbenedet
    Yes
  22. jbenedet
    One of those two disturbances on the GFS, Tues and Wed is going to hit us hard. Just a matter of which one. More than likely the 2 weak disturbances are really one, more cohesive tropical/st system...Major guidance just hasn’t resolved it yet. That’s my best guess anyway.
  23. jbenedet
    If you’re going to get a TC up here you need a synoptic setup similar to Tues to Friday, next week. That’s a window for big rains *if* the sleeping tropics could stir something up off the SE coast. A stalled frontal boundary on guidance shows the potential. MJO to phase 8 and timed with a significant pump of the WAR. It’s as if Kevin has written the script for next week.
  24. jbenedet
    I like BRN’s 15-30 as a general rule of thumb for good chance of severe t-storm conditions. I 84 west up to southern NH away from the coast.
  25. jbenedet
    Reminds me a lot of winter. Trough overhead but no CP air masses to be found. High temps are BN when we’re socked in but just about across the board, dews are way up and night time temps are at/above normal.
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