jbenedet

This is a pretty effin' hilarious H5 look, when most are hungry for snow. Late October/early November vibes. I know I know it's one run of the op at hr180. But it isn't exactly la-la land "clown range" time frame either at day 7/8. Maybe we look for records in the other direction?

I hate these secondary frontal wave looks - the BL takes a lot more time to cool than the snow maps portray. 37/31 and mod snow doesn't pile up - and temps are warmest when the precip rates are best. And then you have warm, wet ground preceding it. It takes a lot to go right for it deliver something more than the nuisance variety. Vermont and the NH whites may able to cash in, especially with some orographic assist. Elsewhere don't like this look at all. But we'll watch...

CON-fluence. That is, you have been conned. Canadian High runs East, surface cold doesn't press, bulk of it stays bottled up in QC and NB. +NAO look.

@WinterWolf is special. It must be black or white! Do Global Sea Surface Temperatures. Do the east Pacific Now do the Gulf of Maine. Of course I can see this data and appreciate that it’s affecting our climate at the *margin*. Meaning: cc is happening and yet, we absolutely can have another 2015 winter season. The marginal warming has killed our totals on *marginal* events. The prevailing story this year is the best cold being delivered in the west, central and even Ohio River Valley.

Really can’t ask for a better HP in Canada (can it get any better than that??) and that’s what worries me. There continues to be a surface high off the SE coast—or said differently: our Canadian high extends all the way to Bermuda . Winds are easterly throughout. Major run to run constant is east Canadian cold that wants to escape east rather than drain south (a +NAO red flag). Also tendency is for the Canadian high to retreat rather than anchor. The 12z GFS was probably best run in this regard, so far and yet still a warm outcome for most. The surface temps on the 12z GFS are bogus with Easterly/southeasterly winds ripping all the way up to York Maine, starting at precip onset0z Friday. Way too cold. This run would be an end to end soaker for the sea coast of NH. Imo, still very unfavorable odds for big snows outside of Winne on north line across NNE.

DAW low of 31. PSM 32. Guidance:

Yea. Pretty sure all guidance busted way low on temps for the overnight. An inch of glop has staying power if you can get a hard freeze right after it. Instead ground isn’t even frozen so with the overnight melting, soil soaked it right up. Back to brown pretty quick

What’s a snowblower?

Yep the same birds out and about since Mowvember. There were signs.

Temps stayed way up all night with the overcast, apparently. Doesn’t even look like we fell below freezing. Driveway 75% wet, and clear of the 0.5” that accumulated on it last night.

Still haven’t had to clean the car off this season. White rain ftw.

Most surfaces an inch or less. Pretty incredible seeing the background surface warmth today. Especially DAW on north. Most impressive since I moved here in 2015. Noted.

Wet roads in Rochester NH. Eyeballing less than an inch on grassy surfaces. Melting inhibiting accums. been snowing light to moderately since 9.

You're right that it is confusing the way I wrote that. I edited it. But what I meant was a track with an early H5 occlusion that slides south of New England (generally favorable to snow) still ends up WARM.

I usually don't comment at this lead time, but the day 7/8 event is (currently) terrible odds for big snows outside Maine and far interior of NNE. Even with an early occlusion and favorable H5 low track (south of New England) and 1040 mb high in QC, end up with a big rainer for most. That's your CLEAR warning. You've basically seen the best result (output) of this setup for snow, and the ultimate outcome is still WARM. The confluence is +NAO based and therefore fleeting. Consistent red flags on this. So, if things tilt more progressive -- then what? An end to end soaker. Happy tracking.

Is that insulting to me or you. Supposedly you use models and are a met expert, and I track geese and don't know meteorology, and I greatly outperform you? The jokes on you bro.

You can quote my posts from 3 days ago which would be more on point than your nowcasts.

@CoastalWx - if you can unlearn everything in meteorology you supposedly know, that would do you well. Maybe you couldn't keep the job, but at least you could forecast weather.

All those rain obs... @CoastalWx ropa-doping the snow weenies into another non-event. The cold-tuck that wasn't. Cold-*uck But he'll surely tell you accurately, what is happening right now!

Are you here for re-analysis or forecasting? We can all look out a window.

Every day. It shows.

Really interesting seeing Albany at 40/39 and North Adam’s MA at 38/35. Incredibly warm for Jan 6. The mesos have this boundary as a quasi stationary front, whereas the globals swing this through the area as a weak warm front associated with the surface low in Ontario. Basically mesos saying the weakening NB surface HP will be enough to hold its ground while globals saying “not a chance” it’s gonna get booted east. Climo matches the mesos; persistence matches the globals. I lean with persistence.

Depends on who ya been following I guess.

Some pointer finger dexterity there. Well done.