jbenedet

Preliminary property damage estimates for Ian so far range from $42 billion to as much as $258 billion, with some landing in the middle. https://www.route-fifty.com/management/2022/10/how-costs-disasters-hurricane-ian-are-calculated-and-why-it-takes-so-long-add-them/378465/

Last night was very mehh... But the wind was always set to come at the end, which is showing up nicely. 43 kts sustained headed up to Portland ME. NDBC - Station IOSN3 Recent Data (noaa.gov)

Regional max looks like Portland Maine.

I get the technicalities. 99% of the people who will be affected don't know or care. That's all I'm saying. Go tell your neighbor about the mesolow coming up the coast and watch for that dear in headlights reaction. And for the NHC it's the 99% they are measured by, whether their warnings were adequate. They ultimately need to hedge forecast risk against sensible weather outcomes; not technical definitions. Eh. Whatever.

Will see. Could be full of it. But some of these rapidly ejecting NE/ENE nascent Tropical lows are so strange. Strong UL divergence trumps all factors, at times, I guess. You'll see them spin-up in no time in the middle of marginal conditions and yet ideal conditions in the Caribbean it takes 3 days for the same stage of LLC development.

It's so shhhhtooopid to call this a mesolow. But yea i believe the highest rainfall totals will be to the north and east of the "mesolow". Right front quadrant. Gonna rip. 5-6" in two hours? No one outside of this forum knows what what a mesolow is. NHC would be much better off going with classification in situations like this, so broader public can understand. Technicalities aside, the sensible weather impacts will be the same, so it's minimal risk for them. And at the same time, stop naming cirrus farts out in the middle of the north Atlantic that get sheared apart by day 3.

Looks like a TC developing near OBX on visible. May not earn anything officially, but there will be semblances of tropical storm type conditions later. Expect the unexpected. The major guidance aint bluffin' this time.

Where is this camera set up?

Anyone have a “best ski spot” in western MA, Berkshires they could recommend?

It’s a long shot, but with the barrage of deep troughs moving through the eastern CONUS, *if* TD13 heads towards the yucatan instead of Nicaragua there’s appreciable odds it eventually gets picked up and affects the CONUS. The latest GFS run hints at that possibility (albeit in a very confusing and complicated way). Both the GFS and Euro ops showing a 2 std trough passing through the GOM, at day 6, during TD 13’s closest approach

Tropical downpours. I’m loving the flex of the humidity.

The eastern CONUS is a lot more like November right now vs early October. The reason I mention this, is November tropical climatology is when western Caribbean TC's get picked up by high amplitude troughs. I definitely would watch this one despite current guidance consensus. Said differently, Carribean waves are the disturbances that pose CONUS threats given the current pattern. Storms that are further north are clearly OTS or sheared apart.

Lol. Oh we laugh. But in terms of ground hog general forecasts, models tracking climate sensitive behavior and adaptations would own the CPC’s analysis every year. Evolutionary scale>>synoptic scale. There is so much to learn here. We need less programmers and more philosophers. Yea, for a while it was the opposite, no doubt. Not anymore.

Ian took a while to organize. The western Caribbean is where it all came together. The early guidance was too bullish in the Eastern and central Caribbean. At the same time this is what allowed Ian to make it as far west Florida, given all the persistent deep troughing over the eastern CONUS. Given the pattern you need any developing system to make it west of the northern Bahamas to have any shot of directly impacting the US. A weak system greatly increases these odds, following the low level easterlies.

What’s going to change things in terms of building is a change in gov back-stopping bad decisions. I don’t trust gov to do that by choice; it’s much the opposite. But for the first time in 40+ years inflation is ripping while deficit is worst in our nation’s history and a new hot war with a Great Power in Europe (further straining resources). This combination means stimulus is now stim-u-less, as any major package will come with immediate negative short term impacts for the nation in terms of higher inflation. The big stimulus packages that followed Sandy and Harvey can’t happen today. Many Americans are going to have to look at these natural risks like much of the rest of the world. It’s going to be a very tough lesson for whoever built their life around the previous chapter.

Use IKE. Integrated kinetic energy.

These building codes aren't being sold on the premise of "it will be easier to clean up your destroyed home". That's where we disagree.

What if I pulled out the sentimental stuff when I evacuated. Demolitions cost money. A lot of money. I'd prefer mother nature take the pile of remaining leaves and send it elsewhere. I guess if you're going to make any cogent argument, it's that it's better for the environment and people who defy recommendations/mandates to prepare and evacuate. The rest of this sounds like sound bites from a architectural engineering company. There's some areas you just don't build. That's the engineering answer to this surge prone problem.

Everything is in tact for demolition? Well thank the lord. Instead of a smoldering pile of trash, I have a well organized one. Thank goodness for modern building codes. What am I missing here?

Maybe I’m wrong about this but the southeast coast doesn’t see a 980 mb coastal nor’easter though, even in peak baroclincity season… 980 or lower caliber doesn’t materialize until the mid Atlantic and northeast. Might make for greater than expected impacts… Pretty cool.

Still Reminds me a lot of the perfect storm. More Extra tropical, then more sub tropical then more tropical. It was in the “grey” in terms of classification the whole time—shades of everything at once. What’s cool about this, is it’s the closest example of the perfect storm since (in my opinion), except this time we get to see what would have happened if it made a close approach to land and ultimately landfall. Key difference will be that Ian had less time to churn up the Atlantic, so the wave factor won’t be *as* impressive.

And not to let guards down, but the perfect storm was ~980 mb. Ian looks like will be similar in intensity. Stronger surface HP than in this case, but close enough to mention. I know that name will take on alarmist connotations but it's a good reference bc so many know about it.

This has all the hallmarks of a STC. The wind limits are not in surface pressure, but in radius. Broader impacts.

Wow - Daytona Beach is getting slammed. Sustained 53, gusting to 72. I doubt that area was prepped for this. National Weather Service : Observed Weather for past 3 Days : Daytona Beach International Airport

I believe the biggest story will be rainfall. But the Tampa Bay Area is going to be right on the cut off for the heaviest. South/east sections get hit hard, north/west not bad at all.