CAPE

Well he is usually wrong no matter what he forecasts DW. He will take credit regardless.

Good thing you pop in at these critical times to remind us all of the elements that often lead us to failure.

Decent discussion from Mount Holly- Tuesday night the surface cold front will be well off the coast with not much in the way of coverage initially expected. Late Tuesday night into very early Wednesday the 700/600 MB thermal gradient will begin to tighten as the shortwave approaches. Latest GFS and NAM FGEN fields are fairly impressive with lift increasing starting over Maryland and spreading northeast. The NAM and the other high res models are depicting this as precipitation spreading over the area rather rapidly Wednesday morning. The NAM is slightly further south with the strongest forcing for ascent compared to the GFS and ECMWF, but overall agreement is not too bad. The main concern will be precipitation type issues. Over the southern Poconos thermal profiles support all snow for the event, but the strongest FGEN signal remains just southeast of this area. The best forcing for ascent is usually towards the warm side of the FGEN band, which would favor limiting snowfall totals here. Towards the I-95 corridor the best chance of precipitation exists, but thermal profiles initially support rain. Both the NAM and GFS show initially rain changing over to a rain/snow mix and then finally all snow. NAM forecast soundings indicate slightly stronger 700/800 mb winds and implied WAA. A brief transition to sleet is indicated via the NAM, but the most likely scenario appears to be rain/snow to snow as max temperatures aloft on the NAM seem to warm compared to the GFS and ECMWF. The most likely snowfall totals across the area are about 1 to 2" with slightly higher totals over the northwestern zones. The change over to snow and subsequent totals will be highly sensitive to the thermal profile and QPF footprint though.

This is not the gfs. It's the broken fv3. Gfs would never do this Old GFS only did this at hour 384.

^FWIW. Would make most in this region happy if half that verified.

Chis 'Mad Dog' Russo said its a great deal. So it must be.

I kinda liked the 18z 3k NAM.

That is possible yes.

He makes beer and drinks beer. I only drink beer.

Agreed. Watch the bad PAC look get muted as we get closer. Seeing it already. Meanwhile, seeing suggestions of higher heights building in the NA.

I posted h5 and precip panels from the 0z EPS run this morning highlighting the potential. 12z looks a bit better but its splitting hairs at this range. Overall it looks like a window is there and it's a pretty decent signal given we are 8 days out. Plenty of time for it to fall apart lol.

Pretty similar looking sounding for here with some decent precip still falling. I rather like the 3km NAM. Suggestive of some banding for eastern areas, which is probably what it would take to cool the lower levels and actually provide a chance of some snow stickage.

I don't always do that. Just lately. Sometimes the way you word things there seems to be an embedded(maybe unintentional) slight. And sometimes you post stuff that doesn't offer any additional insight over something that has literally just been posted by others. @stormtracker Any chance we can get that Prince emoji added here?

Yeah it does suck, which explains why he posts here. He does fine most of the time. I am ok with outsiders as long as they add value. snow88 OTOH...

Not sure where you are going with this, but okay Ralphy.

This is a discussion thread, and factoring prominently in that is model discussion. We should not need to use qualifiers every time we mention day 10+ ensemble mean projections just to coddle the panic prone. They all know where to take that shit.

I wouldn't if I lived in Leesburg. Latest runs are screaming 35 and rain with a few splatty flakes for the corridor and points east, however.

Yeah, I know. I am not on the warm train because the LR guidance is currently suggesting a PAC flood. Pay closer attention.

Unless the ensembles are completely wrong I would say we are in for at least a few days of mild weather. Remains to be seen if it becomes a prolonged stretch. No sense in hand wringing over something that is 10 days away.

Pretty nice look here. Maybe one last chance to score something before we possibly go mild PAC dominant for a bit.

Lots of drinking. Good Vodka. Made from glacial water and distilled using geothermal energy.

It does tend to be a little snowy and icy there, but not so much on the coast. Reykjavik has about the same annual snowfall as Philadelphia. Cold, dark, and mostly rainy.

6z Euro

Had some heavy rain here overnight. 0.52" Since the snow will fail here, I am rooting for a 2" rain total.