CAPE

Picked up 0.85" yesterday with a few rounds of showers. Over 5.5" for the month.

I am in Rehoboth. Just sunny and pretty hot here- perfect for the beach. Looking at the radar it looks like a decent thundershower hit at home, with more activity building to the west.

I might be wrong on this but I think a -NAO becomes pretty impotent once we get into the summer months- as far as providing "cooler" weather. Might look impressive on an h5 anomaly panel, but it isn't really worth a damn this time of year wrt sensible weather. We are going to get our warm/hot periods regardless, and plenty of humidity.

Check out the one hour total on radar for MoCo. Might be overdone, but probably some 1-2 inch amounts.

These cells are low topped and pretty slow movers. Even some backbuilding. Places that get underneath this activity tonight can pick up a lot of rain quick.

Nothing exciting here for this prolonged stalled front event, but have picked up just over an inch of rain since Monday. Going back to Monday last week, around 4.2 inches has fallen here.

Some moderate rain falling here now. As expected, the best stuff is south of DC, especially down in the tidewater of VA.

Some of the folks here are like my dad sometimes. "It's not gonna rain.. there is nothing showing on radar anywhere close!". Ofc, he is not a weather hobbyist and does not understand concepts like surface convergence/upper level divergence, vorticity max, etc.

LOL. Question answered!

This might be a dumb question, but why would reaching the convective temp be critical when the synoptic setup provides mechanism(s) for lift? We have a front, with upper level perturbations moving through. Seems reaching the convective temp would be much more important when there is little to no forcing available, as with typical summer air mass storms.

Caught the edge of a decent storm, worse to the south and east but it poured for 20 mins or so. Some general moderate rain now. Picked up 0.54" so far. eta- ended up with 0.68".

It's so pitiful it cant be found.

Finally got around to actually building a firepit to go with the surround I did back in the Spring. I built a couple planter boxes to put trees in, and I will make a bench once I figure out exactly what I want.

Plenty of sun here this morning. Still feels pretty decent out there, although the dewpoint is creeping up. currently 79/64.

Some excerpts from this morning's AFD from Mount Holly on the potential for late today into the evening- A third perturbation arrives late today, and this is the one that should produce stronger convection. There are two main forecast questions associated with this perturbation. Where will it track, and how will the downstream environment destabilize? Regarding the first question, the 00z NAM tracks it along the Mason-Dixon Line. The 00z GFS tracks it across northern Virginia eastward to Delmarva. The 00z ECMWF is much farther north (generally through PA/NJ). These differences are critical because convection will likely develop in close proximity to this vort max. Hi-res models are similarly variable, with HRRR runs developing strong convection anywhere from eastern PA/central NJ to central/southern MD eastward through Delmarva. Where the environment remains relatively unperturbed by the predecessor precipitation/clouds, BUFKIT soundings show MLCAPE approaching 1000- 1500 J/kg this afternoon in an adequately sheared (30-35 kts deep- layer bulk wind difference) environment. Low-level helicity will also improve through the day, with hodographs exhibiting modest curvature (0-3 km SRH approaching 150 J/kg by evening). Where convection develops, mixed convective modes may occur initially with all types of severe possible, though convection-allowing guidance is tending to develop a mesoscale convective system rather quickly. Timing of the stronger storms looks to be after 3 pm and may peak during the evening hours based on the latest HRRR/NAM Nest simulations.

Yeah well no sense wasting it all now. Save some of that action for winter. lol as if.

Mount Holly's take this morning on the active upcoming period and severe potential for Sunday and esp Monday for most of our region. The aforementioned cold front will be approaching the lower Great Lakes east-northeast to northern/central New England on Sunday, with several weak perturbations moving west-to-east near the boundary. Convection should readily develop along/downstream of the front by afternoon, mainly to our north/west but probably also in our CWA as well. The 00z GFS is depicting a stronger vort max approaching the northern Mid-Atlantic during the evening, with a round of strong/widespread convection in our area by this time. The 00z ECMWF is fairly similar, which provided enough confidence to raise PoPs to high-chance and even likely in northern portions of the CWA Sunday afternoon/night. Precipitation will wane late Sunday night as nocturnal stabilization takes over and the strongest large-scale lift moves to our east. The CAPE/shear parameter space would be sufficient for severe storms Sunday afternoon/evening, and I am rather concerned the GFS is underdoing instability in the pre-frontal warm sector given increasingly warm/moist conditions. Moreover, BUFKIT soundings/hodographs suggest a substantial amount of low-level shear/helicity may exist. Will need to watch Sunday afternoon/night closely for the severe-weather threat in the coming days. After perhaps a brief reprieve late Sunday night into Monday morning, chances of strong convection return Monday afternoon. Both the 00z GFS and ECMWF depict another strong perturbation moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon/evening. Once again, the CAPE/shear parameter space is favorable for severe storms, though shear may be somewhat weaker than the previous day. However, the pre-frontal warm sector may be more unstable (using model sounding comparisons Sunday versus Monday). Complications from antecedent convection will exist (increasing the uncertainty in the forecast by this point), not to mention the model volatility already in place with the perturbations responsible for the larger-scale lift associated with the convection. Nevertheless, I am becoming quite concerned with the severe threat both of these days, and hydro issues will be an increasing concern as well given the multiple rounds of storms that may affect the area.

Total for the rain event this morning here was 2.10", and 3.15" since Sunday.

Absolute soaker here. 1.73" when I left for work about an hour ago, and was still coming down hard. Probably a 2" total. That would be at or above 3" of rain since Monday. Lets see what happens with the summer mosquitoes. The Spring batch has been nearly nonexistent after nuking the woodland wetland with 3 rounds of larvacide in March and April. Been great to be outside without using insect repellent. Time for some summertime heat and hot breezes to get things dried up a bit.

Might be kinda cool to see an h5 pattern like this in Jan or Feb.

76/53 Sunny and breezy. Can it get any better approaching mid June?

Yeah need to watch the trends for Wed night through Thursday. Some areas may end up betwixt and between. Looks like some possible convection late on Thursday too with the trailing front from the low tracking into the GLs. Further down the road, early next week has the look of a potentially wet period with a stalled front and pieces of energy moving along it.

Torrential rain here with some thunder the past 30 mins. Event total up to 0.80" and counting. eta- ended up with 1.04". Most of that fell between 1 and 2am this morning.

Cool looking towers looking to my east. Been virtually nothing here, but areas in DE have been hammered. 2-3" with more in a few spots. 0.18" total here for the entire "event". lol.

Not much action here- just some scattered light rain and drizzle. 0.15" since yesterday evening. The dry air finally retreated with the HP, but it took longer than modeled. PWATs on the increase, but not much of a mechanism for lift today until that vort moves in later with the front. Should be some decent downpours but probably scattered more than widespread, and looks to move through pretty quickly. Looking forward to tomorrow and esp. Wed, which looks like another outstanding day for June.