CAPE

The calculated numbers aren't always indicative of the placement/timing/interplay of the key features, and the actual influence on sensible weather. That being said, it is possible that the pattern might need to be more "perfect" in order to get a favorable outcome than in the past, especially for places with borderline climo for snow. That is mostly speculation at this point though.

Having that expectation is always the smart call around here.

I looked at the individual members on the 0z GEFS for later in the run, and the east coast ridge "look" under the block depicted on the mean is largely a function of spread. There is a camp that has a pronounced trough out west, and some that may be amplifying a storm in the central US during that time frame. Another camp is not suggestive of higher h5 heights in the east at all. We just cant know yet. Patience.

Judah suggesting we might have good golfing weather in the east for the first part of Jan. @leesburg 04 Thaw!

Had a flash flood lol. Local ditches and streams running across the road in places, and lots of standing water. Water table is way above normal for this time of year.

I need to see some flakes fly. I will chase a damn snow squall later if necessary. Looks like locally places along the bay are favored. Bay enhancement can happen in these set ups.

Looks like 3.25" is the total. Forecast was for 1-2". Another over-performer.

I am sure the usual places have flooded here. Be interesting to see how fast they can recede/dry up before the real cold comes in. The farm fields will have plenty of frozen "ponds" by tomorrow morning.

What was your rain total?

That squall line is here now, and the temp is dropping fast. Went from 56 to 46 in minutes.

EURO Weeklies for around the same time.

Extended GEFS suggests its temporary. Keep in mind the latest run is from 0z yesterday.

As for the NYE/day "threat", EPS says nope(maybe one member suggestive of frozen). GEFS has 6 or 7, with a couple nice hits.

GEFS has been trending that way for a few runs now. EPS still looks ok, but we all know the PAC is precarious, and we also know a gigantic, perfectly placed, sustained west based -NAO is not likely to materialize and completely save us. We are going to have to navigate a pattern with warts in the coming weeks, and hopefully we get a few chances, just like always.

Still 56 here at 6am. Looks like that thin line of heavy rain right along the bay marks the front. Maybe I can add a little to the 3.20" of rain overnight. Oh joy.

Well it looks like I maximized on the rain after all. What else is new. 3.05" That intense squall line just blew through and the temp has started to fall. Was 64, now down to 57.

Extraordinarily so. And the GFS has been on a cutter bender lately.

Maybe. Most guidance says I might have to drive south to see a flizzard.

Can we get just a couple flakes here? A dusting maybe? lol.

18z GFS continues the cutter parade.

Wind driven rain has finally arrived. Still 60.

Latest from Mount Holly on wind potential- Winds between 925 mb-850 mb will average 85-95 kt tonight, and with heavy rain and a tight pressure gradient, a good deal of those winds will mix down, especially along the coastal areas. Even back towards southeast Pennsylvania, the LLJ will average 75-85 kt winds. The High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories remain in effect for most of the areas, but will make one change. Currently expecting 60-70 mph winds along the barrier island of New Jersey and into coastal portions of mainland New Jersey, as well into Sussex county, Delaware. Will upgrade from Wind Advisory to a High Wind Warning there. For the rest of the region, maximum wind gusts will range from 45-55 mph.

Pretty 'warm" at the surface here. 63. Rain on the doorstep. With that strong LLJ, maybe some of those winds could mix down? Already had some random gusts earlier when the sun was peaking through the clouds.

Don't we need some actual cold before we can have a thaw?

SPV is MIA at the end of the GEPS run.