CAPE

Not even raining here yet lol. Still 62.

Not bad at D10. Gets a lot better after that. Not in love with the Pac look on the mean towards the end of the run. Still suggestive of too much energy dumping/amplifying out west. Better look than the GEFS though. Hopefully we end up in a good place rolling that forward, and the extended GEFS and CFS have the right idea with a more favorable look in the EPO domain.

Generally agree with your assessment. EPS looks pretty decent at h5. Looking at the individual members there are a handful that have a moderate snow event during that window similar to the op,. Idk, a weakish signal for something day 10?

With not a lot of cold around, this is a "safe" way to get a moderate event for the lowlands. Actually need the NS energy to suppress the SS wave some. Ofc it just happens to work out that way this run, but plenty of other variations are possible.

15%

Just cracked open a 2018 G I Bourbon County Stout.

Looks a bit more interesting today to me. Nothing interesting on the 12z GFS. Surprised Ji wasn't in here yelling DISASTER. Other than the snow showers tomorrow, it doesn't have a single digital flake east of the mountains through day 15 lol.

You westerners can over-perform on the heavy rain for a change. I'll take the max on the snow showers tomorrow.

I got one out of two. Good enough. Cheers!

What time does HH begin on Xmas eve? Asking for a friend.

12z GFS looks more robust with the snow squalls.

Winds starting to crank up here ahead of the rain. Definitely gusting over 25. Temp up to 62.

That narrow W-E band has been persistent on most guidance, and pretty much in that same location, although it looks overdone on the HRRR. Need a slight shift northward!

Sustain the -AO and we will get the cold air as we move into the heart of winter, as long as the Pac isn't a dumpster fire. If the SWE is legit, that bodes well for continuation of HL blocking.

Latest CFS runs look interesting in a couple weeks. Nice improvement in the EPO region. That look would deliver some cold.

I think the persistence of the -AO as we move forward into our colder climo period is the key for getting some decent cold down here. If the EPO/WPO stays positive, a bit of PNA ridge at the right time may help keep energy from digging in too far west and amplifying. The (apparently) inevitable SWE is also a wildcard that may shuffle the longwave pattern some. I am hoping it primarily reinforces the -AO and the tendency for blocking. If the Nina is on the decline, maybe we get a bit of help in the EPO domain going forward.

Still waiting for the NA block to evolve, and park in the ideal position. Then we can start to get an idea how effective it will be in mitigating the less than favorable Pacific. We should know in about 10 days!

Its almost exactly the same everywhere east of the mountains(a bit less out there at 18z).

18z Euro has the localized S MD/Lower Eastern shore snow band that most other guidance has Xmas evening.

Wind! Outside of heat, we can do some impressive wind, esp in winter. Mount Holly- Winds between 925 mb-850 mb will average 80-90 kt Thursday night, but there should be a decent enough inversion to keep the strongest winds aloft. However, with heavy rain, most of those winds will mix down, especially along the coastal areas. With the LLJ now tracking a bit farther west than previously shown, will spread some of the stronger winds back to the west as well. Currently expecting 60-70 mph winds along the barrier island of New Jersey and into coastal portions of mainland New Jersey, as well as along the Delaware beaches in Sussex county, Delaware. Going farther to the west, maximum wind gusts will range from 45-55 mph back through most of New Jersey, Delaware, and into Philadelphia and western suburbs. Will go ahead and upgrade the High Wind Watch to a High Wind Warning for coastal New Jersey and the immediate Atlantic facing Delaware coast. Will hoist a Wind Advisory for the I-95 corridor of New Jersey, Philadelphia and western suburbs, and the rest of Delaware and the eastern shores of Maryland.

Always good not to forget what came before. Or some shit like that.

It was hideous. I try not to hate, but man that was tough.

Kind of interesting how most guidance is placing a snow shower/squall across S MD over to the lower eastern shore Xmas evening. Might have to do a flizzard chase.

Lots of encouraging stuff today but we need something to track asap. It feels like we are driving down the field on every drive but we end up settling for 52 yard field goal attempts

Looks a lot like my display pic. Dec 2009.