CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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Here come the useless snow maps in 3..2..1..
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LR op run meltdowns are the best.
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Blocking apparently transient, or bootleg.
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A couple panels from the 0z EPS mean for late next week. Fair amount of spread among the members re p-type and track.
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I think the bigger risk for failure now might be a miss to the south, as we saw on recent GFS and CMC op runs.
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GEFS looks solid for late next week. Some really nice hits among the members.
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The hell is going on in here? Late night weenie takeover? Led by Ji panic?
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By midnight! lol Things have shifted a tad since then. Looked like temps would be rising this evening. Been in the 30s all day here until the last hour. Up to 40 now. The rain ended up a bit colder. 50 tomorrow.
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Try a beer. Try a real one- a craft ale, maybe a fruity/juicy IPA or something, not a Bud lite lol. I wouldn't go straight to trying liquor, although a lot of young adults do just that. Jager bombs ftl.
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Here are the "plows" they use lol.
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Temps are marginal. We know that. It can still work. The problem is h5, h85, and the surface don't congeal in time for our latitude.
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Look at the evolution at 500 mb. It's wonky af. Short answer is it all comes together too late/too far north for us. eta- I meant to reply to @Scraff lol
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Its real lol. Ralph must have been kidding. Snow plow?
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I generally agree. I think the ensemble members/mean maps have a little more value once the models hone in on an actual threat- provides an indication of the confidence in the event for given locations, but should never be taken even close to verbatim wrt to amounts.
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That map was the mean for the 8th to the 12th. That ain't bad for 7 days out.
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I am thrilled to be considered top poster though. I had no idea!
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WTF are you talking about? You have been going on with these dumbass insinuations long enough. Spill or STFU.
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I meant to say the 8th. There might be a half inch up your way prior to that.
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That's essentially a 4-day mean, for a period beginning in 7 days.
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I think it has a lot to do with the pattern. In this case with a stout block in place/strong confluence, there probably wont be as much of a tendency for north trends towards game time. More likely to tick south a tad. I agree about it being a bit suppressed this far out- it's right on the doorstep.
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For the snow map folks- through Tuesday the 12th. ( nothing really east of the mountains before the 8th) eta- corrected for wrong date.
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There are some nice hits among the members between the 9th and the 12th on the EPS.
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Look at all levels of the atmosphere, not just h5. In this case, look further upstairs at the strength/location of the upper jet, around 250 mb. LF quadrant = lift.
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It's just nice seeing the highs and lows in the right places with an approaching wave. We get that with a legit west based -NAO.
