CAPE

That looks a lot better than reality over here. Verbatim it rains for 12-15 hours. All guidance has the warming both at the surface and aloft along and mostly east of I-95. The broader issue is the Arctic air is moving out and this system takes forever to evolve. The front end thump part is good. eff the damn coastal lol.

CMC has hours and hours of rain east of I-95 with the coastal, before flipping back to snow. It would wipe out the front end thump.

CMC rolls out slower on WB.

I agree. Still seems an unlikely outcome as depicted. Maybe it ends up just a thump/drizzle/dryslot, which I am fine with, but it is hinting at something more with that odd, delayed back end. Maybe that part just goes away.

GFS is still trying to find its way. It ain't going down like this verbatim. Still, it manages to give most of us 4-6", albeit with some rain and drizzle mixed in there.

Probably not, but someone requested it, and someone else said it wasn't the case.

Its a good low track, but the temps are toasty on the mean once the coastal gets going.

The problem is that is not likely an option either in this set up with the primary. The front end thump/dry slot is close, but that still ends up with a bit of mix/rain for some areas. I would take it. And ofc the waa precip could end up somewhat suppressed lol. Never easy. I guess that makes the tracking more interesting.

Its good to keep expectations at least somewhat aligned with reality lol. Everyone is entitled to root for what they want, and it won't make a damn bit of difference in the end.

The big storm idea is complicated and more prone to failure in a Nina for the MA. If I can get 4-6" of snow without worrying about r/s line, I sign up for that shit. I know that probably doesn't work for Ji or Psu though lol.

Hard to know what to root for given the disparity on the guidance. 2 things are concerning esp for eastern areas- the cold air mass will be gradually departing, and the complications with the location of the primary/ coastal transition. I would almost take my chances with a legit front end thump then dry slot while the good cold is still in place, vs a sloppy transfer/ one that ends up too close to the coast. Bigger upside though if it evolves something like the previous Euro runs. The next few model cycles will be telling, maybe.

There are still multiple variations on the table for the ultimate outcome. There will be some legit cold/dry air in place at onset, so a good bet everyone sees some snow. Beyond that, it gets complicated.

It was definitely a bit toasty along I-95 and east. That makes the N and W crew feel good.

It's trending..

Pretty good disco from Mount Holly- The High will slowly lift NE on Sunday as low pressure moves into the Ohio valley, and this system should follow the typical evolution with the interior low occluding and a secondary low beginning to take shape along the coastal front to our south late Sunday into Monday. At this stage, guidance essentially proposes two solutions in terms of the evolution of this system: 1.) A fairly progressive system in which the primary low reaches the Great Lakes before the "energy transfer" with the coastal system occurs (the coastal low doesn`t really get going until it is near our latitude in that scenario). This results in warm-advection driven wintry precipitation at onset which then changes to rain/mix for at least part of our area later in the event. With this solution most of the precipitation would occur late Sunday, with lighter precipitation persisting into Monday- Tuesday as the mid-lvl wave passes. 2.) A slower solution in which the energy transfer takes place upstream of our area, and the coastal low becomes dominant south of the area. The mid-lvl wave then further amplifies and closes off near the east coast on Monday, which then results in the surface low tracking slowly N-NE Monday into Tuesday. This solution could result in a fairly long duration precipitation event for portions of the Mid-Atlantic (at present most favored just south of us), and has a more potential from a winter weather standpoint given the longer duration, and more favorable thermal profiles with the low remaining to our south. While this scenario has the biggest "hit" potential, it also has some "miss" potential, as it is possible the the low doesn`t close off until the system is over the Atlantic which would track the system east of the area, resulting in our area only being on the fringe of any precipitation. Given the general trends/biases in guidance in the blocking regime that has prevailed the last couple months, tend to give a bit more weight to the slower/more amplified solution, so slowed down PoPS a bit. Also, despite the tendency for suppressed systems missing us to the south in this regime, this system will likely be amplifying near our region with diving northern-stream energy helping to reinforce it. Consequently made the decision to bump PoPs slightly to the likely range at least for the southern half of the area on Monday, but capped at 60 given the "miss" scenario described above.

You get more snow on the mean.

12z is PERFECT.

There are always multiple paths to victory, and failure, at this range. We just cant know yet.

Six days out, so plenty of uncertainty. I can pretty much guarantee its not going go down like that lol. Take away that late wonky interaction, its a WAA front end hit followed by a dry slot.

Never.

He could have made a better case by using the 6z GFS.

When will we get the big dog? It always happens when we have a blocking pattern, after a few warm up events.

Wonder if the folks in NC are all in on the GFS. Has a bit of support from the NAM. That should give them a boost of confidence.