CAPE

The 0z GEFS had a few members suggesting a wave/changeover to snow on the back end of the New Years storm. Kind of bled into the following period. 6z looks like a cleaner signal to me for that window.

Pretty decent signal for a coastal low Jan 3-4 on the 6z GEFS. A few nice snow hits in there, some rain, some offshore.

Nice to see storms tracking near/south of us for a change on an op run, even if they are rain lol. It must have finally "seen" the blocking!

The 0z GEFS has the eastern half of the US awash in mild temps from Jan 5 on. At the very end of the run, the trough near AK weakens/retrogrades. Also at the end of the run, there is a perfect Davis Strait block. I guess we keep watching to see if these ideas are legit. I think I have seen enough of the NE PAC trough/PAC jet extension combo though. It's a Pacific puke machine. The jet isn't likely going anywhere, so that trough needs to relax/retrograde. Again we see hints of that towards the end of recent ensemble runs, but it seems to stay stuck in that timeframe. Meanwhile, something could still pop up between now and early Jan, possibly the (potential)event following the NYE heavy rain event. Seems to be a bit of a window there. Lots of moving parts, but not a lot of cold around.

Might as well keep this thread pinned. Can just rename it. Looking more and more like a repeat for NYE. Warm, wind, heavy tropical rains, followed by cold and dry.

Well it did puke out this random gem. No real support on the ens though.

Lets zoom in a bit closer, a panel later. Ahh yes, I'll take it!

Guidance did a good job focusing the snow showers over lower S MD/lower eastern shore.

Same here, just shifted in time. 56 at 6am, mid 30s a few hours later. Below freezing by 4pm. Flash freeeeeeeeeeeezzze!

So this was a mega rainstorm, followed by a few flurries as temps gradually dropped from 60 to the low 30s. As usual, we suck.

Enlarged heart sounds bad to me. Unless it is meant to mean one has more heart. Context is a bitch.

The pattern is pretty good by the 9th, and it isn't awful between now and then, if we get some luck and good timing. I was basically addressing the last few ens runs that were suggesting we might be heading for disaster by mid month lol. Maybe not..

12z EPS flirts with a legit GOA trough, but never gets +heights in the east, and ends up with this look at the end of the run. Not bad. Still lacking super cold air in Canada, but might be good enough as we move towards mid Jan, and maybe we see continued improvement in the EPO domain as the extended tools are suggesting.

Your memory far exceeds mine on these things lol. It was transient in the context of the winter as a whole though, which featured a predominant +NAO.

I see your point here. The Pacific is the issue, and if energy is going to keep digging in out west and amplifying, probably the only way to somewhat mitigate that tendency is with a stout west-based block. Hopefully we see some improvement in the NPAC, as is being suggested on the extended GEFS, CFS weeklies, and EURO weeklies. Pop an EPO ridge and we have a path for cold to build in our source region.

12z GEFS is an improvement over 0z in the LR, suggesting the movement of the vortex toward the GOA might be transient, or the result of conflicting camps among the members.

Yeah we have seen these epic -NAO looks over and over on LR guidance in recent winters, and it rarely materializes in any meaningful way. Hopefully it works out this time. We had a transient -NAO in March of 2018 and scored, but the bomb cyclone happened with a favorable Pacific, and a +AO/NAO. Lets be patient and maybe the can doesn't get eternally kicked this time, but at some point I am going to root for a big ass EPO ridge, even if it means losing any NA blocking lol.

Yeah we don't have the cold, and that makes the location and strength of the +heights in the NA all the more critical. Maybe it gets there, as the LR means are suggesting, but for the next 7 to 10 days its displaced east/SE, and hasn't retrograded west yet. That can still work with favorable timing, if we can get something to not amplify so far west.

What blocking is being wasted? You mean the NA ridge that keeps popping where we want a 50-50 low? That blocking? That's useless, esp with the PAC behaving the way it is.

I read that too. There is really no way to know how things will reshuffle, and exactly where the daughter vortices end up. And this may not even be a SSW, just a warming event. There does seem to be a correlation between significant weakening of the SPV and -AO though. Not sure how well that works if the AO is already negative.

Yeah that's what I got from it. Mild in the east the first 2 weeks or so of Jan. He also seems to be leaning heavily on the GEFS, so we shall see. Curious to see what the EPS looks like today.

Was outside bringing some firewood in and a few flakes are flying. Nothing too impressive but at least I can say I have finally seen the first flakes lol.

The pattern is extremely active and amplified. The anticyclonic wave breaking in the EPAC is sending chunks of energy into the western US and as it amplifies, ridging builds downstream over the east. The NAO block is not really there yet- there is some NA ridging, but its not stable and mostly too far east over the next week or so. With all the moving parts it is possible for something to materialize- probably a trailing wave, as we have seen on some op runs, but otherwise we are probably...wait for it... 10 days away!

no mas

The calculated numbers aren't always indicative of the placement/timing/interplay of the key features, and the actual influence on sensible weather. That being said, it is possible that the pattern might need to be more "perfect" in order to get a favorable outcome than in the past, especially for places with borderline climo for snow. That is mostly speculation at this point though.