CAPE
-
Posts
33,895 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by CAPE
-
Have you tried the latest version of RAR First Meal Stout? Holy shit is it awful lol. Unless you like chewing on a slab of salty hickory smoked bacon. What a terrible concept. Worst damn thing I have ever drank. I have 3 of the 4 left if you want them lol.
-
Yeah I think Cohen is going with the most conservative possible outcome. I just posted it for fun. Given what we are seeing on the LR means now with the blocking, it seems like we should be legitimately in the game around mid month or so. Could always luck into something before that too.
-
Steelers are going to rest a bunch of players. No Big Ben, as expected. Good news for the Browns. Lets see if they can take advantage and break their awful streak of futility. Otoh, this wont help the Ravens and Colts. Ofc the Ravens don't need any help if they take care of business against the Bengals. I think this is going to be a lot more challenging than it really should be.
-
Good practice for when the blocking gets real.
-
When you see Tropospheric vortices crawling around/trapped under the block, you know its legit. This is what we need.
-
I posted about this early this morning. I beat the expert to the punch!
-
lol depends on which one of the SPV doctors you want to believe. They all say something a little different. Just looking at the forecasted 50 and 500 mb height/temp anomaly alignment I would say we are coupled and primed for long term blocking. Just give me that massive west-based block at the end of the Euro run and hope the Pacific calms down a bit. I will leave the rest of the esoteric SPV voodoo stuff to the geeks to figure out.
-
Judah thinks there might be some winter in N America by MLK day. Maybe by Feb for the east coast?
-
Upper 30s is getting into cold rain territory, and that's always better than mild rain.
-
Definitely a legit looking ridge towards the end of this run. Maybe there was more spread on the previous runs wrt to exact location, causing flatter height lines on the mean.
-
That is the general look that I was touting last night with the Euro weeklies and this morning on the extended GEFS. I get your point about ridge placement sensitivity, but we are playing with fire almost all the time anyway. As long as that trough isn't a monster sitting over GoA, it think we will be in pretty good shape, and a ridge might get us a little more cold to work with.
-
That is a nice progression and can work despite marginal cold with a block like that. Lets hope we see more of that inside day 15 over the next few days
-
Wait a minute now.. I am effing exhausted though. I almost forgot how optimistic I was this morning when I posted those extended GEFS maps. I know what I am rooting for that won't matter in the least.
-
I guess everyone can root for the variation they think is better, and its going to do what its going to do regardless, and we will all live with the results lol.
-
That vortex needs to relax though. We aren't getting any cold now, other than briefly behind a storm, and it isn't even that cold. Need to strike some sort of balance, and flirting with a SE ridge is par for the course in a Nina. As long as we have legit blocking, a mean trough further west could still work. That vortex has been dumping energy out west and amplifying it, and we ridge out anyway with storms tracking NW.
-
Well, we were told it was meteorologically impossible anyway. I cant remember who that was lol.
-
But that premise is based on the past/current normal, which would no longer exist. In all seriousness, the advertised pattern on the extended tools includes an EPO ridge, and that may be exactly what we need to flush the puke and get some decent cold- which is where this whole discussion started this morning. No we don't want winters dominated by an EPO blocking ridge with a +AO/NAO, and a WAR.
-
Its more of a crapshoot for sure. There is a high risk of cutters/inland runners with storms that amplify without NA help. I would need at least some timely -NAO episodes for it to work out here most of the time. The one big snow/slop storm in 2014 did not go so well here. eta- remember, the context with which I brought it up was possible "new normal" going forward, lol. So the historical stuff would become less useful.
-
Yeah they look close. I just think there are probably enough subtleties than cant be detected by comparing past h5 composites to a current projected mean. I would have to be convinced that the current Pacific state is not more hostile than say back in Feb 2010, despite the similar h5 looks. As I said in a discussion we had the other day, I am willing to consider the possibility that what used to be our "money looks" for snow events here may not work as well anymore. Maybe a -EPO becomes the new -AO.
-
Not sure those composites necessarily match what we have going on now all that well. Sure they are close at first glance. The one on the left implies a PNA ridge and the one on the right has some ridging in the EPO/WPO domain. Also hard to gauge the strength of the NE PAC trough, and what may be different impacts from ENSO background state, ocean temp anomalies, and Pac jet strength/ position now vs using 10+ year old analogs.
-
It does get some -6 to -10 up there a few days later. Outside of something dramatic happening as a result of the SWE, we will probably have to make do with moderate cold.
-
Most everything in nature is sinusoidal.
-
No one knows, but all can speculate.
-
Retro the trough and get an EPO ridge(or coupled +PNA/-EPO) and we can shut off that firehose.
-
I think we had one of those in Jan 2016.
