CAPE

6z GEFS does look flatter and further east than 0z run.

Mount Holly's take for the Sunday-Monday potential- Deterministic guidance over the past 24 hours has taken an eastern shift in a potential surface low track however there`s still quite a bit of spread in the ensemble guidance. I suspect over the next couple of days we`ll see this trend continue as the 250mb jet axis acts as a wall to push the developing low pressure system off shore. However its certainly within the ensemble envelope that we`ll see the low pressure system sneak back inside and towards the coast. So its worth watching for changes but likely the storm will have little impact over the region other than to bring rather cold temperatures to the region. Temps early next week will be running on the order of 10 degrees below normal..

Forecast highs here low 40s for Sat and Sun, dropping to 34 for Monday.

No surprise there is plenty of uncertainty for late in the weekend, but this is how to make a forecast and keep all possible outcomes in play. Saturday Night A chance of snow showers after 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Sunday A chance of snow showers before 9am, then a chance of rain and snow showers between 9am and 10am, then a chance of rain showers after 10am. Partly sunny, with a high near 43. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Cabin in the woods.

Few pics from around my property today. My seasonal wetland is quite wet. Last year at this time it was mostly dry. I will be trudging around in there seeding it with larvicide in another 6 weeks or so.

Snowing decently here now with some big flakes, temp down to 32. Might get a dusting before this band dies out.

Everyone has their own interpretation of 'busted' I suppose. I didn't get as much as I wanted, nor what many of the models had depicted, but I did get about what I expected, being objective about the general setup, the complexities, and my location.

Radar looks more impressive here now than at other times where it was snowing light to moderately and accumulating, yet just random flakes flying around. I think there is some drying in the mid levels. We have finally reached the end of this protracted snow showery event I think.

Rare bird these days. We sure could do with an event like this.

Here is h5 for that event.

It may have been a southern slider that ended up a MA slider. It definitely had some latitude gain though as it tracked eastward I believe. I don't think it was straight W-E in its track. I could be wrong. I am sure @psuhoffman can provide the specifics.

I just remember it look suppressed, then it looked like it might hit the coastal plain of MD and DE, then it trended NW in the last day or so and ended up a solid event for everyone. That's how it can work with some decent blocking and legit cold in place. No mixing issues except maybe in SE VA or something. I recall it being in the mid teens here from start to finish, no lulls in intensity, and ended up with 7". Loved that day.

Perfect. In some ways, that was the most enjoyable event of that remarkable winter.

I dont think we are getting the goods with this one. Looks good for Easton and Denton and further SE.

Some flakeage here now. Maybe I can catch the NW edge of this one.

Looks a lot like the op to me.

No one posted it? Thought i saw it back there somewhere.

In between sounds good to me. I don't care for either solution verbatim.

The parting shot snow band looks good for places along the lower bay. HRRR has had this on recent runs. 3k NAM too I think.

I mean I don't hate it either, but most here do. I would much rather have it with a few inches of snow otg.

As long as it tracks 75-100 miles further east, I am down.

My last recollection of a temp at zero was after a snowstorm in early March of 2015 I believe. Was a great day, so refreshing. I went hiking and temps were in the 20s that day. Took lots of photos.

Last time I looked past the gravy I ended up with a smaller helping of gravy, and no meat.